Damus
Dr. Jeff profile picture
Dr. Jeff
@DrJeff

Macro.
Charts.
Geopolitics.
Random musings.
Sometimes funny.
Occasional doom and gloom.
Fund management insights.
Never individual investment advice.
** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund. **

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Recent Notes

Pascal Hügli · 2w
How can I connect with you?
Dr. Jeff profile picture
Issue #5 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀

Signals Converging

Four independent frameworks. One directional message.

→ The US dollar reclaims its 200-day SMA -- bullish near-term, complicated long-term
→ Bitcoin forming a second bear flag -- with liquidity confirming the warning
→ Michael Howell's GLI suggests lower crypto prices over the coming 13 weeks
→ Brent Crude is a coiled spring -- the geopolitical wildcard nobody is pricing correctly
→ NASDAQ/Gold: a 40-year pattern that has repeated twice is repeating again

The window for clear thinking may be shorter than most people realize.

Read it here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-195167379

Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.
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Pascal Hügli · 2w
Jeff! This article is great🔥 I’d love to get on my podcast. Would you be in? https://youtube.com/@lessnoisemoresignalpodcast?si=vrJICCP-0lXU8T45
Primal Protocol · 2w
No relevance to human health or diet, focus on financial markets.
sati · 2w
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! Just for fun, where do you see btc dropping off in the next 13 weeks?
Chad K · 2w
Hey Doc, good read. What’s about $IWM tho? Didn’t it just “break out”?
QQQ Priced in Gold · 2w
Great read! Folks that are interested in Nasdaq measured in gold terms may want to keep an eye on the following QQQ / gold chart (QQQ tracks Nasdaq-100). It’s a pretty sobering jolt the first time you see it nostr:nevent1qqsr03yccvqqnva6uwnvhvg9nyftkeaee023pny48x2n34l6p2ue4qqpr9mhxue69uhkummn9ek...
BlueDuckBTC · 2w
I just watched the latest convo between nostr:nprofile1qqsd0uazmzmhwseeym3rjhf3txyjapreapc6sq8yq8cy07cg45tlx2cprpmhxue69uhhqun9d45h2mfwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyd8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn0wfskuem9wp5kcmpwv3jhvr2k...
Dr. Jeff profile picture
These are fair criticisms. Here's my response:

If you believe--as I do--that humanity/society/governments/financial systems/monetary systems/etc. move in cycles, then my views may not seem so contradictory or "bizarre," as you state.

For instance, a man does not stand on a beach, hoping for a warmth and a sun tan when it is snowing and lake is water is frozen. When Summer is over and Winter comes, he is wise to wear warm clothes and build a fire to stay warm.

Likewise, when we approach the climax of a #FourthTurning, then the existing human systems and structures necessarily begin to collapse, and new ones are built on the other side.

History has shown that all involved countries essentially turn "communist"... that is, from "free market capitalism" and individualism to central command and control. Only by banding together and working towards a common goal (against a common enemy) can a nation hope to survive and win a major war against a major adversary.

I'm not pro-war, but I am a realist who believes that WW3 has already begun... similar to how WW2 began in the mid-to-late 1930s for Europe, Asia, and North Africa... not in 1941, as many Americans believe.

Finally, it is naive to believe that America is still a "free market capitalist" system in 2026. The US government is heavily involved in the both the financial and monetary systems... directing funds towards the rapid build-out of the military industrial complex at the expense of other "non-essential" industries, massively expanding government debt, actively debasing the people's purchasing power, etc.

In short, the US government is actively picking winners and losers--central command and control, a form of "communism"--in order to compete with their named adversaries. Ironically, the US is becoming more like China in order to compete with China.

This response is already getting too long, but I haven't even addressed the coming age of AI and robotics, which also mean that humans will lose across the board in almost all labor competitions. If "free market capitalism" still exists in the 2030s and beyond, then most humans who try to compete will be the recipients of creative destruction.

Soon, humans won't be able to outthink AI or outwork robots... a la John Henry, the "steel-drivin' man." -- If this is the case, then our entire society/government/financial system/monetary system/etc. will need to be re-thought and re-created.

Hopefully this helps. Cheers.
4
Based Truth · 2w
Cycles orchestrated by the likes of Rothschild and Rockefeller, maintaining their grip on power.
Primal Protocol · 2w
Cycles are evident in human health too, with ancestral diets like carnivore promoting balance and well-being.
BlueDuckBTC · 2w
“Finally, it is naive to believe that America is still a "free market capitalist" system in 2026. The US government is heavily involved in the both the financial and monetary systems... directing funds towards the rapid build-out of the military industrial complex at the expense of other "non-esse...
BlueDuckBTC · 2w
Hey Dr. Jeff, I was hoping to hear your response about your No True Scotsman fallacy take on capitalism. I too love to read history and psychology. If there is something missing in my claim, my mind is always open to be changed. nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l
sati · 3w
Should have said it is not aging well, we will see. Bitcoin price and all in war. Sounded to me that you were leaning for a war scalation and btc been rejected, still it may happen though.
véritas · 3w
https://image.nostr.build/3ecd21e8314cf376ee7b8f3f9113d189427d7e83077d0264443cd39e2989a535.jpg