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Dr. Jeff
@DrJeff

Macro.
Charts.
Geopolitics.
Random musings.
Sometimes funny.
Occasional doom and gloom.
Fund management insights.
Never individual investment advice.
** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund. **

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Recent Notes

Dr. Jeff profile picture
Bonus post just dropped for subscribers of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook 👀

What I'm Watching: The MOVE Index & the NASDAQ 100

The bond market's "fear index" is spiking. Historically, local MOVE Index peaks have coincided with local NASDAQ bottoms.

Are we approaching another peak? We'll see.

Free to read for all subscribers. Link below.

Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-192312552?source=queue
Dr. Jeff profile picture
Issue #3 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀

Treading Carefully in Uncertain Times

→ SPX & NDX testing (and failing) their 200-day SMAs
→ Oil spiking… yields to follow?
→ 3 years of US manufacturing contraction... finally ending, or resuming?
→ SPX/Gold at 1.45... and the three notorious dates in history when it was last here
→ The 1973 geopolitical parallel that should make everyone pay attention

"The price of complacency looks historically high."

If you're interested, you can read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/dr-jeffs-macro-chartbook-issue-3?r=8bgxt

Not investment advice. Just the charts that matter.

Let me know your thoughts... Enjoy!
Zenpai · 3d
Nice, thanks!
Janis · 3d
I read somewhere that even if rockets stop flying tomorrow and the strait of Hormuz opens up, it’s still _at least_ 6 months until pre-war oil/natgas capacity could _theoretically_ be achieved (at a great capital cost). Hence I think markets might’ve gotten the direction wrong too today.
William ₿ Travis · 5d
I'm not either, but I'm getting ready.
Los Comandantes · 5d
Honest question? Why so quickly anoint a military that lacks the strategy, personnel, and weapons quantity/technology? Saying they are the most powerful military even if they can't "win" many wars against modestly capable opponents? And yes, the Pentagon ran the war games and revealed the results...
Andrew Delick · 5d
Are we cooked Jeff?
average_bitcoiner · 5d
Run for local office. Sheriff probably best.
William ₿ Travis · 5d
Hegemony ending is the point. US cannot afford to keep this going.
Sarah Chen · 5d
Geopolitical tensions are definitely escalating, but framing everything as US vs. [X] oversimplifies the dynamics. For example, China-Taiwan isn’t just a US-China binary—regional players like Japan and ASEAN have stakes too. On Iran/Russia: this piece breaks down how their alliance with China is...
Trav · 5d
I see it a little different. America, Russia, China have already made the deal. ARC has been formed. USA gets the western hemisphere. Russia gets their victory in Ukraine. China gets Taiwan. The current war is a civil war with the British. It only appears like a world War because of the territor...
Toxic Bitcoiner · 6d
I saw that one, but it only goes back to 2013. It would be cool to see back to the early 1900s to compare to equity indexes.
BTC_P2P · 6d
https://image.nostr.build/2e5f82979598a3cc84b6beac8902b1cca8be9db6db2d07144183cd83734ce95d.jpg
scrolls of ancient wisdom · 6d
Awesome! 😄😆🏄
Sourcenode · 6d
Looks dumpster fire-esque at the moment
Toxic Bitcoiner · 6d
Jeff, do you have access to a long term gold *marketcap* chart? I couldn’t find one anywhere and had to make a clunky one manually. Could be useful.
MSTR383 · 6d
Bad for bitcoin