BIP-110 did not activate. The miners did not signal. Knut Svanholm wrote an honest retrospective landing on two explanations: capture, or insufficient economic weight.
Samson Mow read it and mostly a...
If the first block during mandatory signaling had been a BIP110 block, I think there was a real possibility the network would have followed it.
Foundry wasn’t mining at the moment of the split, which is one reason the next block on both sides took so long. My speculation is that Foundry may initially have been on the BIP110 side. After seeing Antpool, the largest pool, mine on the other side, they may have stopped rather than risk mining against it, and then switched.
That’s what the BIP110 side got wrong. The whole concept was based on miners not wanting to risk a split, but they didn’t consider what would happen if the first block was on the other side. They assumed other miners would want to override it and mine a BIP110 block. But in this scenario, miners instead stop mining to avoid risking a split. So everything comes down to mandatory signaling. The more support there is, the higher the chance of mining on a given chain.
Foundry wasn’t mining at the moment of the split, which is one reason the next block on both sides took so long. My speculation is that Foundry may initially have been on the BIP110 side. After seeing Antpool, the largest pool, mine on the other side, they may have stopped rather than risk mining against it, and then switched.
That’s what the BIP110 side got wrong. The whole concept was based on miners not wanting to risk a split, but they didn’t consider what would happen if the first block was on the other side. They assumed other miners would want to override it and mine a BIP110 block. But in this scenario, miners instead stop mining to avoid risking a split. So everything comes down to mandatory signaling. The more support there is, the higher the chance of mining on a given chain.
2