The U.S. is planning strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened by Tuesday. Iran just rejected the ceasefire offer.

Oil is already past $110. If strikes hit Iranian refineries and export terminals, analysts are modeling $150. Goldman says $150 triggers demand destruction, which is the polite way of saying the economy breaks.

Every $10 increase in oil adds roughly 30 basis points to inflation. Gas is heading past $4.50 a gallon. That's an extra $1,000+ per household this year in fuel costs alone.

The second-order effects are worse. The Persian Gulf supplies a third of global fertilizer inputs. Fertilizer prices spike, food prices follow within a quarter. Trucking, shipping, and air freight costs are already surging, which means everything on a shelf gets repriced.

The Fed was supposed to cut rates this year. Those cuts are gone. If oil stays triple digits, they may have to hike. Mortgages stay expensive. Auto loans get worse. Credit cards keep climbing.

This isn't a foreign policy story anymore. It's a grocery bill story.