A little anti-doomer take for those of you (like me!) getting worried about AI. It's just a small niche but maybe the same thoughts could cross-apply to other areas of life:
I don't think it's very likely that AI will find classical breaks (as in, poly-time algos) to ECDLP. That's just an offhand intuition, but it's a very deep mathematical problem (factoring, also, though I guess that one is a bit safer). While at the same time, consider some of the big-picture problems - not hardness problems, but things we want to do, but can't - like functional encryption, indistinguishability obfuscation, fully homomorphic encryption, post-quantum analogs that don't have horrible tradeoffs, in cryptography. It's orders of magnitude more likely that AI will find *very* good solutions to those kind of problems. If they do, it will mean that things like Bitcoin become vastly more powerful, because vastly more useful. And the one thing that really underpins Bitcoin is not susceptible to some vast intelligence changing its character: energy scarcity. if you unlock a 10x on how much energy humanity has access to, obviously that changes a ton of things, but it doesn't change that energy is scarce. it's the finiteness that matters in proof of work, not the number. so short version: much *better* cryptography meaning much better bitcoin usability, is actually a pretty likely outcome.
I don't think it's very likely that AI will find classical breaks (as in, poly-time algos) to ECDLP. That's just an offhand intuition, but it's a very deep mathematical problem (factoring, also, though I guess that one is a bit safer). While at the same time, consider some of the big-picture problems - not hardness problems, but things we want to do, but can't - like functional encryption, indistinguishability obfuscation, fully homomorphic encryption, post-quantum analogs that don't have horrible tradeoffs, in cryptography. It's orders of magnitude more likely that AI will find *very* good solutions to those kind of problems. If they do, it will mean that things like Bitcoin become vastly more powerful, because vastly more useful. And the one thing that really underpins Bitcoin is not susceptible to some vast intelligence changing its character: energy scarcity. if you unlock a 10x on how much energy humanity has access to, obviously that changes a ton of things, but it doesn't change that energy is scarce. it's the finiteness that matters in proof of work, not the number. so short version: much *better* cryptography meaning much better bitcoin usability, is actually a pretty likely outcome.
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