That would be crazy. Hopefully 0% but realistically prob higher.

I personally think it depends on where in the spectrum of censorship you are looking. Outright, blatant bans and censorship? I'm thinking the odds are low, say in the single digit percentage likelihood. Shadow bans and "misinformation warnings"? I'm thinking much higher, say will into the double dig...

Inflation and energy prices discussion... I don't see how exactly that could be put under a lid. At least here in a small eu country the mainstream is roasting the govt and the cen. bank for inflation and I cankt see them doing 180 on it. Covid was very different. Maybe some ways of resolving the p...

Its as close to certain without being certain

64.33%

What are the chances in five years there will be no centralized social media?

They won't be able to get me to shut up about it.

I know rocket scientists who can't grasp inflation. They understand how to break the sound barrier but dont seem to grasp fiat debasement My bet is energy and whoever the state manufactured enemy is.

Can’t imagine. Those two things are really hidden in very PLAIN sight.

I wonder how this works in countries who are already further down the totalitarian path? Are inflation references absent from sanctioned discourse? Is there any evidence that eliminating references to troubling economic news makes a difference? I can’t imagine it would be a confidence booster, tho...

Interesting question. I still have hope we roll back out censorship. I think energy is more likely than inflation.

And make sure to set up some metrics now, don't get boiled like a frog in the pot.

higher than they would be on nostr, that's for sure. A standing president said this to a reporter when asked about inflation, for instance: https://youtu.be/XXPKci5nFXw

https://nostr.build/i/dc291f89998f17fbb25fabecd2e9c61e12c8b287539f3441b899acafe9c819aa.jpg

There will be no talk about energy as we move to a ☢️ power standard….. it will be like talking about drinking water in the developed world….. it just happens.

69% chance

This kinds of questions would fit really well in a prediction market. Let everyone put something on the line to predict the future.

What was censored on centralized social media platforms in the pandemic during 2020/2021?

Guesses are better, far better, when given numerically and as you wisely included, with a date. The date provides 'closure' and thus a method to measure how accurate the numerical guess is. As Sikander posted...that is how prediction markets work. Only problem with 'markets' of prediction is th...

Imo, govt could not pass on the buck for failed Covid response to anyone else - and hence resorted to censorship. On inflation or energy, they could, to multiple visible and invisible hands, so won’t care.

As sure a bet as a cold day during winter In Minnesota 🥶

It won't matter by then. most will have undergone the effects of each to know better.

Which pandemic?

100% and maybe as early as 2024

As someone who started to pay attention for the first time in my life in 2021/2022 up to present… it’s wild to me this was happening a couple years earlier.

Seems the likelyhood of "official" censorship of these topics are low, but there might be alot of self-censorship and people who arent interested in them. Its also entirely possible that the government will be like "ok you dont like fiat currency? here is a motherfucking gold standard, deal with it"...

😅 nostr:nevent1qqsfhhf0mvkv0skn4sm225hhxel6qn6peqah6rquxqrfgmwlzpe9w0spramhxue69uhkummnw3ezuen0w4hxgunev35kw6t5v9kzucm0d5hsyg82krn4d5etsz7dge8nmpztspqrqvr45yl2hs6enfmzexk84wglfupsgqqqqqqsh56xu4

100%

I think lower than you would first think. why? >>> 1)there is no "it's science" equivalent for the woke mob to get really angry about when it comes to inflation. 2) inflation will be felt from a bottom up direction rather than the narrative being controlled in a top down direction.

😭

In 5 years? Lol, centralized social will be exclusively funny cat videos. Except they won’t even be funny anymore.

I think it’s more likely a CBDC is served up as the panacea to “save America” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220617a.htm #[1]​ (genuinely want your honest insight) what happens to BTC in a world full of CBDC’s?

My guesses: Energy in general 25%, if people start calling for more/cheaper fossil fuels, 75%. Inflation, if it gets significantly higher than today and especially if many more people start realizing what's causing it, 95%. However, the likelihood of armies of AI bots, deployed by the usual suspect...

They won’t need to. They’ll just add more arcane hedonics to how they measure it.

This nostr:nevent1qqsfhhf0mvkv0skn4sm225hhxel6qn6peqah6rquxqrfgmwlzpe9w0spjfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduk8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wvfskuepvwaehxw309anxjmr5v4ezumn0wd68ytnhd9hx2tmwwp6kyvthvc68qatxwd6kxetjx4mxzwr889crqun2x4jxu6rkvejksdny8pmnqeekv4shjct9wq6kg6rswvm8yum8wv6rxer8dqun7cnjdaskgcmpw...

what do you think?

Lets hope their is a push- back to a decentralized arena where the common people can voice.

for sure... CBDC talk is already censored

It already is. When I talk to people about inflation many look at me like I am wearing a silvery tin foil hat.

we may see it happen faster to the banking industry and they seems to be the one under threat now a days.

Very high. But trust in media is now very low.

Scary thought…but given what happened in 2020 there’s a higher probability of it happening.

pLandemic.