Damus
Lyn Alden
Recent notes
As an update to this post from last month, Q1 2025 had less interest expense than Q4 2024. Treasury notes and bills of about 2 years or less are reinvesting with lower interest rates, while Treasury notes and bonds of 3+ years are reinvesting with higher rates. Interest expense is going to remain elevated as long as interest rates remain elevated, but the "Treasury has to roll $9 trillion in debt this year" narrative was so overdone. https://blossom.primal.net/fc0a12bb4d47a3217e0011632077690b05a63036d1b42158d74342dbe5455784.png nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp64suatdx2uqhn2xfu7cgjuqgqcrqadp864uxkv6wckf43atj860qqswexs5lh82d8r96mjkhqn8ly8y6atas2fcs2e029t720f0dcgqy8se307g3
The latest novel I finished was Sword of Kaigen. Published in 2019, this one is notable because it's one of the most successful indie-published fantasy novels ever. In addition to selling well and having top-tier reviews, it won the SPFBO award (a leading annual contest for indie fantasy books). The best review I saw for it described it as a "clumsy masterpiece" and I think that describes it well. Most of the book is 10/10, while other parts are like 4/10. The setting is similar to feudal Japan (called Kaigen), except warriors can wield elemental magic based on their lineage. In that sense, it's like the brutal adult version of Avatar the Last Airbender. The book is interesting in a few ways. It totally violates the common three-act structure. Literally no character has plot armor; anyone can die and stakes are real. The author ML Wang is a martial arts instructor, and so her fight scenes are quite good. One of the main characters is a mother in her 30s; she was a badass as a teenager but settled down to have kids over the past 15 years, but when her town is threatened, she has to dust off her old badassary. She's not the strongest around in terms of her ice magic, but she fights dirty and is totally brutal with unique abilities when her kids' lives are on the line. In that sense, it's all quite refreshing. A combination of serious emotional impact, good action, and avoiding common cliches or structures. The flaw mainly has to do with the context. The author's initial works took place in this world of hers, and Sword of Kaigen was written as a stand-alone prequel to them. So, some aspects tie into the rest of the world, and those are the weak points. In addition, the author has discontinued that world/series in basically a permanent hiatus, and so although the novel is kind of stand-alone, there are many overarching threats/problems that were built up that will likely never be addressed. In some sense that's realistic; this is a character-driven story about peoples' individual lives rather than some grand continent-spanning quest. Overall quite interesting; glad I read it. It starts slow, but the middle is absolutely insane. https://blossom.primal.net/7933e1653c37058a95af1d6d71f9c19f1e7cc9ddfb45d7edfda23769006e399f.png
Stocks down, bonds down, and currency strength down simultaneously represents a balance of payments problem. It’s the type of thing that usually happens to emerging markets. Anyway, GM.