Damus
Dr. Jeff profile picture
Dr. Jeff
@DrJeff
Many are wondering why the Trump administration and, primarily, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are putting the brakes on the economy and letting US equities get pummeled.

This slide from Hedgeye nicely depicts what (I believe) is the primary reason... despite all of the garbled nonsense spewing from most financial outlets.

A massive wall of debt maturity is upon us over the next five months, which peaks in the month of April at well over $2T!!

The lower the rates in the near-term, the lower the present and future price of our debt payments following this massive and mandatory rollover.

Pulling the US economy... and inflation expectations... and Treasury yields... and equities... lower causes real short-term pain, but should lead to more reasonable future interest payments on debt and provide support for robust future growth.

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The Stacker Monster · 55w
That makes sense! In addition, politically, it makes sense to burn it down quickly so they can put the blame on Biden. Most of their followers will believe their talking points. Then fed cuts rates and republicans run up the deficit so the market can rip heading into the midterms.
Bud · 55w
This is potentially a rational strategy. Thanks, and I hope you’re right. Most of the garbled nonsense is coming from Donald Trump. Why can’t he just say what he’s doing?
Seth · 55w
So emergency rate cuts to refinance at lower rates?
Thomas · 55w
Good point Jeff. Heard that argument before and believe its very likely.
nobody · 55w
Just print the money.
Niko · 55w
Just continue weekly DCA on the way down until the refinance games are over I suppose. 🤷‍♂️
Jay Pow Pow · 55w
Exactly what the Dems wanted them to do. They're gonna get killed in the midterms. Saw a chart yesterday that March after election stocks was a strong predictor of midterms. Securing a generation of republican control was his mandate not cutting USAID or dropping the 10 year by 100 bps.
Bitcoin Ranger · 55w
Informative as always. I’m a little confused by the last paragraph though. Can you elaborate a little more on how they’re pulling down inflation and treasury yields? I thought those were economy stimulating things.
bing · 55w
Could this be a coiling spring moment for equities and Bitcoin?
Chucky 🫂 · 55w
Imo you way overestimate the intellect of the current ruling administration trying to rationalize a looming crisis.
buyBTCRetireEarly · 55w
Wen next solo livestream doc for your updated feels for the game
AnalogKid70 · 55w
If the peak of the debt has to be rolled over in March and April, aren’t we already too late to bring rafters down? Unless the Fed drops the rate bigly in the next 2 weeks.
BitLo · 55w
The adults are now in the room. Sorry petulant children.
Y⚡ · 55w