I said it from the start. 338Canada.com was bad at riding level dynamics. My riding was “CPC Likely” for the entire election, with the final prediction of 47% CPC and 30% NDP.
Final result with 94% of the polls reporting:
CPC: 34.7%
NDP: 39.5%
I believe these poll aggregating predicting exacerbated people’s anxieties about the CPC vote and made people “vote strategically” when, they had simply voted what they normally did, the result would have been what they wanted.
Since the decline of land line telephones, polling, and the aggregators that use them, have consistently produced questionable results. They do ok at large level outlook, but at rid8ng levels, they are poor.
We need to stop relying on them (and I admit I am just as addicted everyone.) We need to rely on our own local media, all candidates meetings, and experiences with our candidates over these websites.
Have good night all. It was a decent outcome, but there is a lot that could have been better about this election.
#cdnpoli #elxn45
Final result with 94% of the polls reporting:
CPC: 34.7%
NDP: 39.5%
I believe these poll aggregating predicting exacerbated people’s anxieties about the CPC vote and made people “vote strategically” when, they had simply voted what they normally did, the result would have been what they wanted.
Since the decline of land line telephones, polling, and the aggregators that use them, have consistently produced questionable results. They do ok at large level outlook, but at rid8ng levels, they are poor.
We need to stop relying on them (and I admit I am just as addicted everyone.) We need to rely on our own local media, all candidates meetings, and experiences with our candidates over these websites.
Have good night all. It was a decent outcome, but there is a lot that could have been better about this election.
#cdnpoli #elxn45
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