One of the big debates is whether the halving is the key driver of bitcoin price action or whether it is macro forces like liquidity.

Supply halvings:


Global liquidity:



Of course, I think both are important. Supply halvings and the HODL wave represent the supply side and how many coins are available or tightly held. Liquidity is the main driver of new, external demand, and it makes sense that bitcoin's price is highly correlated with the global money supply. And then of course there are other variables as well, including overall UX/accessibility of the network for more and more types of capital to easily come in and to *want* to come in.

It's a mistake to assume for sure that any one variable drives markets, like the universe owes you a bull market just because the halving happens. Although like prior times, my assumption is that we'll have another positive liquidity cycle after the halving, and so the debate will likely live on for another epoch.