China Morning Missive
Trump Derails the China Agenda
President Trump is now seeking to postpone his scheduled trip to China. My immediate response was that Beijing learned of this decision the same way we all did. From the President while speaking publicly with the media. If this is accurate, it would be a colossal foreign policy error.
The decision, more than likely, is in response to China’s unwillingness to assist with the Strait of Hormuz. Once again, President Trump took the path of applied pressure. And, once again, it was a gross miscalculation much in the same vein as last year’s trade conflict. Whomever is advising the President on China needs to be removed from that position with immediate effect.
“Come to Hormuz and assist with reopening the strait”. That was the ask.
Below is the formal response from yesterday afternoon.
– Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian "The recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have disrupted international trade routes for goods and energy, and undermined regional and global peace and stability. China reiterates its call for all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent regional instability that could have a greater impact on global economic development."
Clearly, there was no possible way that either Israel or the United States would halt the ongoing Gulf campaign. China would have been very well aware of this fact and, to deflect from the pressure applied, conditions were placed on assistance as any shrewd geopolitical player would do when facing a similar situation.
Now, it could all just be happenstance and the decision to postpone the trip could very well be the result of President Trump needing to remain in Washington to oversee the military operations. Let us, for the sake of argument, assume that this is the case. It doesn’t matter. For the Chinese, the irritation comes from how the decision was both made and communicated.
For the Chinese, a last minute request to postpone a State visit is within the realm of acceptable diplomatic behavior. Not ideal, but it happens albeit infrequently. For Beijing, especially after the Paris meetings over the weekend, where initial pressure would have most certainly been applied, there would have been an expectation that the President might delay the trip. It would have been a known unknown.
Where the gross miscalculation comes into play is in how that decision was communicated. Very publicly. Whenever you are engaging with the Chinese, be it on foreign policy or commercially, any decision that fundamentally alters the direction of a relationship must, and I stress MUST, first be communicated and agreed to privately before either party makes a public statement. Such is clearly not the case here.
I’ve been on the receiving end of making that very mistake. You do not want to find yourself in that position. It impairs a relationship in ways that most will not truly understand or appreciate.
When an error in judgement is made such as we have here, you won’t even know that the relationship has been impaired. The Chinese side will smile and overtly express an understanding. In reality, there is a deep sense of betrayal, and your Chinese counterpart will fundamentally reorient how engagement will proceed from that point forward. What should be expected is a lower willingness by Beijing to move on any agenda item. There will continue to be dialogue, but the Trump team will now face a new slate of obstacles. Even previously agreed to terms will resurface. For the Chinese, there is no longer any goodwill.
My outlook is now firmer than ever. The Chinese will diplomatically impede all progress on the bilateral relationship and await the outcome of the mid-term elections.
Trump says U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-china-iran-xi-war-trade.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Trump Derails the China Agenda
President Trump is now seeking to postpone his scheduled trip to China. My immediate response was that Beijing learned of this decision the same way we all did. From the President while speaking publicly with the media. If this is accurate, it would be a colossal foreign policy error.
The decision, more than likely, is in response to China’s unwillingness to assist with the Strait of Hormuz. Once again, President Trump took the path of applied pressure. And, once again, it was a gross miscalculation much in the same vein as last year’s trade conflict. Whomever is advising the President on China needs to be removed from that position with immediate effect.
“Come to Hormuz and assist with reopening the strait”. That was the ask.
Below is the formal response from yesterday afternoon.
– Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian "The recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have disrupted international trade routes for goods and energy, and undermined regional and global peace and stability. China reiterates its call for all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent regional instability that could have a greater impact on global economic development."
Clearly, there was no possible way that either Israel or the United States would halt the ongoing Gulf campaign. China would have been very well aware of this fact and, to deflect from the pressure applied, conditions were placed on assistance as any shrewd geopolitical player would do when facing a similar situation.
Now, it could all just be happenstance and the decision to postpone the trip could very well be the result of President Trump needing to remain in Washington to oversee the military operations. Let us, for the sake of argument, assume that this is the case. It doesn’t matter. For the Chinese, the irritation comes from how the decision was both made and communicated.
For the Chinese, a last minute request to postpone a State visit is within the realm of acceptable diplomatic behavior. Not ideal, but it happens albeit infrequently. For Beijing, especially after the Paris meetings over the weekend, where initial pressure would have most certainly been applied, there would have been an expectation that the President might delay the trip. It would have been a known unknown.
Where the gross miscalculation comes into play is in how that decision was communicated. Very publicly. Whenever you are engaging with the Chinese, be it on foreign policy or commercially, any decision that fundamentally alters the direction of a relationship must, and I stress MUST, first be communicated and agreed to privately before either party makes a public statement. Such is clearly not the case here.
I’ve been on the receiving end of making that very mistake. You do not want to find yourself in that position. It impairs a relationship in ways that most will not truly understand or appreciate.
When an error in judgement is made such as we have here, you won’t even know that the relationship has been impaired. The Chinese side will smile and overtly express an understanding. In reality, there is a deep sense of betrayal, and your Chinese counterpart will fundamentally reorient how engagement will proceed from that point forward. What should be expected is a lower willingness by Beijing to move on any agenda item. There will continue to be dialogue, but the Trump team will now face a new slate of obstacles. Even previously agreed to terms will resurface. For the Chinese, there is no longer any goodwill.
My outlook is now firmer than ever. The Chinese will diplomatically impede all progress on the bilateral relationship and await the outcome of the mid-term elections.
Trump says U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-china-iran-xi-war-trade.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
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