@prc30
China 30 year veteran
Joined Nostr at block 777177
No relay list published yet.
Recent Notes
nostr:npub1yy3uc7y85faxy5cwq8f574yda3j9457p7r9h2ymlkwlx6lp8f4vsy4kawc
Yes this is accurate to a point. I’d say roughly half the cars on the road today, periods more, are EVs.
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China Morning Missive
Wuwei (无为) and the Cultural Chasm
Over the past several days I’ve been overwhelmed with client emails asking whether American activities in the Gulf are indirectly targeting China. It appears that the zeitgeist, including many Washington policy makers, is operating under the impression that China has been irreparably harmed and the Beijing leadership is at a loss for how to respond. My responses to those emails are short and to the point. “Ignore the noise. We’ve seen similar instances in the past (last year’s tariff episode?). Operate under the principal that China has prepared for this eventuality.”
It continues to escape the rationale mind of many that China operates at the lowest possible time preference. I make this point often and do so because it represents the singular first principal to be applied whenever any assessment of China is being made. Not only is the application critical to understand how Beijing goes about structuring policies, both domestic and foreign, it is central to the very process of decision making itself. More specifically, the importance lies in a recognition that, for Beijing, action is far more often found in demonstrable restraint.
There are genuine cultural anomalies present. They need to be considered and yet are always absent. Honestly, you’d think this would have been recognized by now given thirty years of observable Chinese behavior. It hasn’t. There isn’t just a cultural gap in America’s expert class when it comes to the topic of China, there is a cultural chasm.
Be it the Taoist concept of Wuwei or the teachings of Lao Tzu, Chinese society is grounded in a willingness to take the path of forbearance. An outward projection of stillness. Consider the character for patience, Ren (忍). It is comprised of two characters, blade (刃) and heart (心). What this means to the Chinese is that patience is a concept that requires a willingness to endure adversity.
Be mindful though. Non-action shouldn’t always be taken literally. It is a highly layered construct and quite malleable. Yes, the Chinese default setting is a static state, but every single event is viewed through its own unique lens. If there were to be an extreme event, then the Beijing leadership would most certainly resort to an immediate response. To the Chinese, however, there is rarely ever an occurrence that is truly extreme (ie unexpected) in nature.
Restraint is the consequence of ongoing preparedness present across China. At all levels of society, anxiety is born from uncertainty and the greater the uncertainty the greater the anxiety. And to counter uncertainty means a greater effort to prepare. Again, we only need to look back to last year. Contrary to all American expectations, the Chinese successfully countered the Trump administration’s escalatory tariff regime. This was achieved through advanced preparation. It was a widely held view in China that tariffs would be deployed and parties across the country simply planned well in advance for that eventuality. Exports were frontloaded and cash hoards were amassed. This provided time and flexibility to negotiate and do so from a position of relative strength.
So too is it the case with events now playing out in the Middle East. Beijing has well understood, and for decades, America’s motivations and objectives across the Gulf and preparations have been underway for quite some time. Beijing made overtures to create a separate series of regional relationships and did so with success. At the same time, there were various steps taken to mitigate all identified risks from future conflict. There was the aggressive campaign to build three significant rail lines (and pipelines) traversing the entirety of the Heartland. Alternative sources of energy (ex-Gulf partners) were established, from Russia to Indonesia to Africa. Even the domestic agenda of shifting to renewables and EVs can now be seen as having a geopolitical angle. China isn’t at a loss. China is, once again, very well placed.
If there is to be a focus, it needs to be on a fundamental realignment in how the American foreign policy and business community goes about assessing China. This must begin by taking China seriously and literally. Stop miscalculating China’s capabilities. Secretary Bessent famously claimed last year that China was negotiating “with a pair of twos”. He was wrong. Today, Secretary Wright is stating that “China is about to lose the second of three gas station suppliers”. Again, the Secretary will come to learn that he, too, is wrong. The script must be flipped and, moving forward, it is highly advisable that the expectation shift towards China gaining from hegemonic actions taken by America.
Wuwei (无为) and the Cultural Chasm
Over the past several days I’ve been overwhelmed with client emails asking whether American activities in the Gulf are indirectly targeting China. It appears that the zeitgeist, including many Washington policy makers, is operating under the impression that China has been irreparably harmed and the Beijing leadership is at a loss for how to respond. My responses to those emails are short and to the point. “Ignore the noise. We’ve seen similar instances in the past (last year’s tariff episode?). Operate under the principal that China has prepared for this eventuality.”
It continues to escape the rationale mind of many that China operates at the lowest possible time preference. I make this point often and do so because it represents the singular first principal to be applied whenever any assessment of China is being made. Not only is the application critical to understand how Beijing goes about structuring policies, both domestic and foreign, it is central to the very process of decision making itself. More specifically, the importance lies in a recognition that, for Beijing, action is far more often found in demonstrable restraint.
There are genuine cultural anomalies present. They need to be considered and yet are always absent. Honestly, you’d think this would have been recognized by now given thirty years of observable Chinese behavior. It hasn’t. There isn’t just a cultural gap in America’s expert class when it comes to the topic of China, there is a cultural chasm.
Be it the Taoist concept of Wuwei or the teachings of Lao Tzu, Chinese society is grounded in a willingness to take the path of forbearance. An outward projection of stillness. Consider the character for patience, Ren (忍). It is comprised of two characters, blade (刃) and heart (心). What this means to the Chinese is that patience is a concept that requires a willingness to endure adversity.
Be mindful though. Non-action shouldn’t always be taken literally. It is a highly layered construct and quite malleable. Yes, the Chinese default setting is a static state, but every single event is viewed through its own unique lens. If there were to be an extreme event, then the Beijing leadership would most certainly resort to an immediate response. To the Chinese, however, there is rarely ever an occurrence that is truly extreme (ie unexpected) in nature.
Restraint is the consequence of ongoing preparedness present across China. At all levels of society, anxiety is born from uncertainty and the greater the uncertainty the greater the anxiety. And to counter uncertainty means a greater effort to prepare. Again, we only need to look back to last year. Contrary to all American expectations, the Chinese successfully countered the Trump administration’s escalatory tariff regime. This was achieved through advanced preparation. It was a widely held view in China that tariffs would be deployed and parties across the country simply planned well in advance for that eventuality. Exports were frontloaded and cash hoards were amassed. This provided time and flexibility to negotiate and do so from a position of relative strength.
So too is it the case with events now playing out in the Middle East. Beijing has well understood, and for decades, America’s motivations and objectives across the Gulf and preparations have been underway for quite some time. Beijing made overtures to create a separate series of regional relationships and did so with success. At the same time, there were various steps taken to mitigate all identified risks from future conflict. There was the aggressive campaign to build three significant rail lines (and pipelines) traversing the entirety of the Heartland. Alternative sources of energy (ex-Gulf partners) were established, from Russia to Indonesia to Africa. Even the domestic agenda of shifting to renewables and EVs can now be seen as having a geopolitical angle. China isn’t at a loss. China is, once again, very well placed.
If there is to be a focus, it needs to be on a fundamental realignment in how the American foreign policy and business community goes about assessing China. This must begin by taking China seriously and literally. Stop miscalculating China’s capabilities. Secretary Bessent famously claimed last year that China was negotiating “with a pair of twos”. He was wrong. Today, Secretary Wright is stating that “China is about to lose the second of three gas station suppliers”. Again, the Secretary will come to learn that he, too, is wrong. The script must be flipped and, moving forward, it is highly advisable that the expectation shift towards China gaining from hegemonic actions taken by America.
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Thanks for the thoughtful response!
Always. Or at least I aim to provide a thoughtful response and doing so with as little emotive layering as possible.
I used to have a 'no-block' rule, I think echo chambers are the refuge of small minds.
but considering everybody and their sister has an agent posting dumb replies on nostr, that rule has been suspend...
I clearly must be old, officially. Hard for me to tell what’s real and what’s agent generated. Hopefully people will know that all commentary on China I put out is human generated.
Everyone who is saying “this war is really about China” hasn’t a single idea of just how prepared Beijing became for this eventuality.
Not a single lesson was learned from last years trade war. Bessent and pretty much every geopolitical cosplayer said China had no leverage. “China was playing with a pair of twos”.
They were wrong. They are wrong this time as well. China has seen this coming for decades.
Not a single lesson was learned from last years trade war. Bessent and pretty much every geopolitical cosplayer said China had no leverage. “China was playing with a pair of twos”.
They were wrong. They are wrong this time as well. China has seen this coming for decades.
Here is a perfect example of why you need to tread carefully anytime there’s a flurry of commentary discussing China.
Be it Beijing’s motivations, or the supposed fact that – somehow – action taken by the United States in the Middle East has provided for escalatory leverage. It may sound like a cliche, but you must know that the Chinese are playing multiple steps ahead of Washington.
Perhaps some unsolicited advice. The next time you stumble across an individual weighing in on the China debate, simply ask that individual when was the last time they were in country. It’s all noise when it comes to the arm chair macro tourists and armchair geopolitical theorists.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/china-tells-top-refiners-to-suspend-diesel-and-gasoline-exports
Be it Beijing’s motivations, or the supposed fact that – somehow – action taken by the United States in the Middle East has provided for escalatory leverage. It may sound like a cliche, but you must know that the Chinese are playing multiple steps ahead of Washington.
Perhaps some unsolicited advice. The next time you stumble across an individual weighing in on the China debate, simply ask that individual when was the last time they were in country. It’s all noise when it comes to the arm chair macro tourists and armchair geopolitical theorists.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/china-tells-top-refiners-to-suspend-diesel-and-gasoline-exports
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China Morning Missive
More of the Same, as Expected
That time of year again, the China “Two Sessions” where Beijing leadership lays out its economic plans for the coming year. Much as expected, the path forward is essentially the very same path from 2025.
Where I’m focused is on the continued deleveraging especially at the local government level. Basically, it is a “left pocket, right pocket” strategy where Beijing is issuing so called ultra-long special sovereign bonds and will use those proceeds to retire local government debt.
There’s been no fiscal bazooka and there will be no fiscal bazooka. There will be no direct support provided to households. Once again, I will state emphatically that Keynes is well and truly dead in China. The lessons of 2008 were learned and policy was thusly adjusted.
What this will also mean is continued deflationary pressure.
My ongoing thesis remains intact as well. Beginning in 2017, but in earnest staring in 2020, Beijing shifted to an entirely new economic model. Property and infrastructure, the historic drivers of growth, were to be phased out and replaced by manufacturing, or more specifically what’s referred to as the fourth industrial revolution.
There’s no question that what Beijing is seeking to achieve is a very big ask. There is no guarantee that the strategy will ultimately work. The economic structural issues were, however, recognized and a path forward was created to address those issues. That’s far more than can be said of any G7 nation-state. If, and this is a very big if, China does prove successful in the transition it’ll be game over.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/china-s-steady-debt-plan-calms-bond-market-on-ample-liquidity
More of the Same, as Expected
That time of year again, the China “Two Sessions” where Beijing leadership lays out its economic plans for the coming year. Much as expected, the path forward is essentially the very same path from 2025.
Where I’m focused is on the continued deleveraging especially at the local government level. Basically, it is a “left pocket, right pocket” strategy where Beijing is issuing so called ultra-long special sovereign bonds and will use those proceeds to retire local government debt.
There’s been no fiscal bazooka and there will be no fiscal bazooka. There will be no direct support provided to households. Once again, I will state emphatically that Keynes is well and truly dead in China. The lessons of 2008 were learned and policy was thusly adjusted.
What this will also mean is continued deflationary pressure.
My ongoing thesis remains intact as well. Beginning in 2017, but in earnest staring in 2020, Beijing shifted to an entirely new economic model. Property and infrastructure, the historic drivers of growth, were to be phased out and replaced by manufacturing, or more specifically what’s referred to as the fourth industrial revolution.
There’s no question that what Beijing is seeking to achieve is a very big ask. There is no guarantee that the strategy will ultimately work. The economic structural issues were, however, recognized and a path forward was created to address those issues. That’s far more than can be said of any G7 nation-state. If, and this is a very big if, China does prove successful in the transition it’ll be game over.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/china-s-steady-debt-plan-calms-bond-market-on-ample-liquidity
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Everywhere I look is propoganda telling me Iran's winning, No America's winning, no Iran, No America...
It's so fucking tiring.
And don’t forget, the entire war is really about containing China!!!
new slur unlocked......
https://npub1gke42gwrz2ja5np9tpcr449785hx6zxgzf2329x8584h4d06puzqg33xp3.blossom.band/f7aa1222fc8988c2685030e1953d063342d509890710df58de9c73a8f45af26b.jpg
This is a really good one. Not often used here locally but still …. Excellent.
that last link is for his latest episode in which he address the China issue.
Ok, so had a watch. My feedback is that those holding hard line claims over what China will or won’t do tend to have at least a bias if not an outright agenda. Brian’s commentary is just too declarative. “China can’t do this….” Or “China is different from America …..”
There’s, of course, certain truth underlying the various commentary. Make no mistake though, China and the United States are rivals and are both are seeking to undermine the other. I just find that how it is China goes about that process is smoother. America’s approach is brash and hegemonic.
My own baseline is as follows. China understands how it is that America acts on the global stage, learned the lessons over 30 years and is applying that learning to its distinct advantage.
The Americans, to this very day, still do not truly understand how China operates, what motivates China or how decision making is conducted in a way that can successfully suppress American power.
My overall aim is to address that latter point. To educate, wherever possible, my fellow compatriots. For now, there just hasn't been an audience willing to listen with a genuinely open mind. I just keep tilting at the windmills.
There’s, of course, certain truth underlying the various commentary. Make no mistake though, China and the United States are rivals and are both are seeking to undermine the other. I just find that how it is China goes about that process is smoother. America’s approach is brash and hegemonic.
My own baseline is as follows. China understands how it is that America acts on the global stage, learned the lessons over 30 years and is applying that learning to its distinct advantage.
The Americans, to this very day, still do not truly understand how China operates, what motivates China or how decision making is conducted in a way that can successfully suppress American power.
My overall aim is to address that latter point. To educate, wherever possible, my fellow compatriots. For now, there just hasn't been an audience willing to listen with a genuinely open mind. I just keep tilting at the windmills.
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