I think m of n's will be more popular. Mixture of institutions and individuals.

Those that self-custody now? Close to 100% probably. The issue is that most newcomers probably won't due to gaslighting.

hard to tell, most of them wont have onchain bitcoin i guess…

suppose it depends on the future ease of custody & of course, on chain transaction fees I’ll guess 20% of Bitcoin holders self custody 40% hold on CEXs 40% are ETF’ers

Same share of the number of people that store gold bars at home.

It will likely depend on the ease-of-use and user experience amongst many other factors. They would have to improve by an order of magnitude.

Self custody is getting easier. I will always do it and show others how. Until then, the rugs will continue.

10-15%

After 15 years, it's going to be basically self-custody, because technology is going to make it easier for people to self-preserve. But there will certainly be more accounts that require KYC than there are now. Maybe most of them are KYC accounts.

Over all, maybe 15 % Maximum 30% How much hold there own gold coin today?

most people will probably only interface with #bitcoin on L2 solutions true on-chain self-custody will always be <50%

Many people will have a mix. I hope that at least 60% of them hold most of their funds by themselves.

I would lean towards more as tech develops for ease of off/on ramp/cold storage in one spot. Bigger question for me here is what will the legacy system truly/realistically look like in 15yrs then back BTC into that.

20-50% Will still be self-custody in 15 years. Too many coins in diamond hands. But if you ask the same question about the coins that will have moved within 5 years of that date I believe the number will be much much lower.

In 15 years, self-custody will be as easy & straight-forward as using your smartphone today. The entirety of Gen-Z & Gen-Alpha will be nearly 100% self-custody - They will proliferate self-custody further to the other generations.

Trick question. If you don't self-custody you're not holding bitcoin.

20%

My understanding is that fees could soon become prohibitive for smaller UTXO’s. If that is the case then self custody would no longer be affordable for smaller hodlers.

i am not too optimistic. hopefully the world learned something from the paper gold supressing it´s price. but there are a lot lazy morons and boomers around who rather buy GBTC (looking at Bitoin T.I.A.A. here (he lost the "N" by now officially)) or companies like MicroStrategy that are using a se...

If you don’t self-custody, you don’t hold 😉

Depends on how robust L2 solutions are by then and/or how expensive/cheap it is to hold bitcoin on-chain.

On one hand, better tech will make self-custody easier, somehow mitigating key loss. Also, I think Fedi styled custody will be important for saving on fees. Base layer custody will probly not be the norm, IMHO. Those who HODL >1 or 2 BTC today will have some important decisions to make: serve as a b...

I'm going to say a low number, not because I don't think you should self-custody. But because I think adoption will be pervasive in 15 years, and a lot of people will rely on 3rd parties to custody. Hopefully some will be trustworthy. So...3%

Less than today. People don’t want to learn. They want convenience, and have grown used to regulated custodians regardless of the risks.

Good question. In 15 years, people will be more technologically adept. We’ll also experience more frauds like FTX along the way, which will keep reminding us “not your keys, not your #bitcoin.” There will be more elegant multi-sig solutions available. The older folks that store it with e.g. ET...

It will be a low number, less that 20% imo. Most people are just not going to feel comfortable self-custodying their own wealth.

Depends on how society evolves. People tend to need to get burnt before they take action. Similar to how people only install an alarm system after having been robbed... never to be robbed again. If the current system continues to "work" than many won't be bothered to self custody. However, If majo...

Listening to Bob Burnet on the latest “what bitcoin did” podcast, he talks about how the scarcity of block space makes it mathematically impossible for all people on earth to self custody. It would take 40 years of transactions to disseminate btc on the base layer to everyone on earth. This brin...

About 30% - 35%

20%

10%

1e-7%

20% That's being pessimistic about the future of civilization & politics, however. If society doesn't have a huge collapse somehow, then it'll just be like 2%.

100%

Way more than today.

"Hold" means self custody.

Those who currently self-custody Bitcoin will likely continue to do so 15 years from now, because they know the cost. Many new users, will choose fancy ETFs or other abstractions. This choice is often driven by the ease of use and a strong habit to delegate financial responsibilities to third partie...

My guess will be 20%. The majority of Americans today do not even self custody their currency. In other countries, cash still works. We can also look at trends in the "unbanked," but this example focuses on those who already use banking in their country and jurisdiction. The financial system will...

It's not yours if you don't self custody. Everyone else will get rugged, leaving only the people hodling their keys with #bitcoin So, 100%

100%. Because 15 years is enough for devs to simplify the complexity. People won’t even notice they self-custody.

No first version of anything tends to stay as market leader in long time frames. Some other chain/project will surpass it in 15 years. Likely some improved version of Monero.

Without a major protocol change? Effectively no one. I’m assuming in 15 years we’ll have hyperbitcoinization. With 200M transactions/year, the average wait time for 8 billion users is going to be in the ballpark of 40 years. The only people that will be able to use the block space are those will...

If you don't self-custody then you don't hold bitcoin by definition.