20%

My understanding is that fees could soon become prohibitive for smaller UTXO’s. If that is the case then self custody would no longer be affordable for smaller hodlers.

i am not too optimistic. hopefully the world learned something from the paper gold supressing it´s price. but there are a lot lazy morons and boomers around who rather buy GBTC (looking at Bitoin T.I.A.A. here (he lost the "N" by now officially)) or companies like MicroStrategy that are using a se...

I suspect the vast majority will only transact and save on a yet to be conceived L2.

5-15% might be able to. Perhaps somewhere in the middle there.

If you don’t self-custody, you don’t hold 😉

Depends on how robust L2 solutions are by then and/or how expensive/cheap it is to hold bitcoin on-chain.

On one hand, better tech will make self-custody easier, somehow mitigating key loss. Also, I think Fedi styled custody will be important for saving on fees. Base layer custody will probly not be the norm, IMHO. Those who HODL >1 or 2 BTC today will have some important decisions to make: serve as a b...

I'm going to say a low number, not because I don't think you should self-custody. But because I think adoption will be pervasive in 15 years, and a lot of people will rely on 3rd parties to custody. Hopefully some will be trustworthy. So...3%

Percentage of people holding it in 15 years, or from the people that hodl today? If it's the first, I'd say less than 1%... How many people run their own servers? And with tx fees at 50$ (or more, in 15 years), I don't see much self custody. Also, if one has a utxo of such value in their cold storag...

Less than today. People don’t want to learn. They want convenience, and have grown used to regulated custodians regardless of the risks.

Good question. In 15 years, people will be more technologically adept. We’ll also experience more frauds like FTX along the way, which will keep reminding us “not your keys, not your #bitcoin.” There will be more elegant multi-sig solutions available. The older folks that store it with e.g. ET...

It will be a low number, less that 20% imo. Most people are just not going to feel comfortable self-custodying their own wealth.

Depends on how society evolves. People tend to need to get burnt before they take action. Similar to how people only install an alarm system after having been robbed... never to be robbed again. If the current system continues to "work" than many won't be bothered to self custody. However, If majo...

Listening to Bob Burnet on the latest “what bitcoin did” podcast, he talks about how the scarcity of block space makes it mathematically impossible for all people on earth to self custody. It would take 40 years of transactions to disseminate btc on the base layer to everyone on earth. This brin...

Your question is why I hold bullion (all shapes and sizes) over BTC. I have hard-drives from over 20 years ago but what I created then (e.g. manuscripts for hard-copy books) has diminished value in today's content platforms (tweets, tick-tocks etc). It will take hope and partisan persistence to ensu...

About 30% - 35%

If they do it won’t be on the basechain. Will have to be on layer 2.

What percentage of people will self custody bitcoin in 15 years do you think?  I think all. Here’s why. The family is the cell of society. So if one person in the family — call him bitcoin grandad — gives a day’s wage of bitcoin to the children, godchildren, nieces, nephews, brothers-i...

All, because self-custody and strong personal conviction are safe from the gov't.

Pretty high as with with increasing education people will hold a % in self custody and more liquid in other options

After listening latest WBD I’m thinking not so many (of new ones yet to come)… Old ones are selling a bit when price rises, so 60-70%?

20%

10%

1e-7%

20% That's being pessimistic about the future of civilization & politics, however. If society doesn't have a huge collapse somehow, then it'll just be like 2%.

Depends if you count the part that will be in self-custody. Almost no one will avoid third party custody completely.

Less than 99% because https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate

33%

100%

Way more than today.

"Hold" means self custody.

If we are still at war with the fiat system, then 100% of those that oppose it. It would be easy to think it would be less, but the old legacy system will be still fresh in our minds. As the years go by, then trusted centralized custodians will offer their benefits. Future education of our childre...

Those who currently self-custody Bitcoin will likely continue to do so 15 years from now, because they know the cost. Many new users, will choose fancy ETFs or other abstractions. This choice is often driven by the ease of use and a strong habit to delegate financial responsibilities to third partie...

My guess will be 20%. The majority of Americans today do not even self custody their currency. In other countries, cash still works. We can also look at trends in the "unbanked," but this example focuses on those who already use banking in their country and jurisdiction. The financial system will...

It's not yours if you don't self custody. Everyone else will get rugged, leaving only the people hodling their keys with #bitcoin So, 100%

Same as now unless new simpler way is developed. Stamping 24 words on a seed plate is only for us cultists

100%. Because 15 years is enough for devs to simplify the complexity. People won’t even notice they self-custody.

No first version of anything tends to stay as market leader in long time frames. Some other chain/project will surpass it in 15 years. Likely some improved version of Monero.

Without a major protocol change? Effectively no one. I’m assuming in 15 years we’ll have hyperbitcoinization. With 200M transactions/year, the average wait time for 8 billion users is going to be in the ballpark of 40 years. The only people that will be able to use the block space are those will...

https://image.nostr.build/05d49f7920207a6f885f48ef24a621c7c03ca48a7dc18066aea4dcf1b483a249.jpg

If you don't self-custody then you don't hold bitcoin by definition.