Damus
TFTC profile picture
TFTC
@TFTC
Gold fell 3.4% on Monday, a nearly 3-standard-deviation move.

A normal distribution says a drop that size should happen about once every two years.

h/t (KobeissiLetter)
21❤️2🤙1
John OD · 3w
Sorry if I’m missing this, but how is it the rarest in 2 decades if it happens every two years?
Johnathan Corgan · 2w
That's not a normal distribution; it is leptokurtic. It has a narrower central portion and fatter tails. "Standard" deviation is a poor measure of likelihood here, as rare events occur much more often than a normal distribution would predict. There is a whole history of financial disasters in the l...