Galaxy's Alex Thorn says he is lowering his odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%.
He says the problem is not the bill, which cleared committee 15-9 with bipartisan support. It is the Senate calendar.
Thorn argues the bill must pass both chambers before August recess at the end of July. After that, midterm election dynamics make fall passage unlikely. The Senate lost a week to the anti-weaponization fund and FISA reauthorization failed last night, consuming next week's floor time.
Ethics provisions remain unresolved and he expects two Republican no votes from Hawley and Paul, meaning the bill needs at least 9 Democrats on the floor.
Without a credible floor commitment from leadership in the next two to three weeks, Thorn says the path narrows to a post-recess effort in September, which he is cautious about.
He says the problem is not the bill, which cleared committee 15-9 with bipartisan support. It is the Senate calendar.
Thorn argues the bill must pass both chambers before August recess at the end of July. After that, midterm election dynamics make fall passage unlikely. The Senate lost a week to the anti-weaponization fund and FISA reauthorization failed last night, consuming next week's floor time.
Ethics provisions remain unresolved and he expects two Republican no votes from Hawley and Paul, meaning the bill needs at least 9 Democrats on the floor.
Without a credible floor commitment from leadership in the next two to three weeks, Thorn says the path narrows to a post-recess effort in September, which he is cautious about.
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