Damus
Freemaxi · 147w
Thank you for your very interesting notes Lyn! ,🙂 And what are your expectations for global liquidity for 2023 and 2024?
Lyn Alden profile picture
Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative.

I think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity.

Liquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.
63❤️18🤙11
t4es5ter5 · 147w
Big bummer for those who expecting some action for the halving event in 2024..... So this time *is* different..... We will see. For me it does not really matter. Strong hands.
Kirk · 147w
Thanks for the insights, Lyn! And for everyone else like me who needed that last paragraph elaborated on: https://chat.forefront.ai/share/df243096-8769-4134-be66-5ae37e19c10c
xymor · 147w
do you have a top 3 possible catalysts for the crash that can finally break the camel's back? there are so many piling up, china slow down, Ua war, BoJ, CRE...
Toby McMann · 147w
When we think about global liquidity, am I right in saying China's M2 is greater than the US? And, isn't China encouraging loans and growth in money supply at present?
Trey Walsh · 147w
What could be very tough to analyze in bitcoin is that, while we’re living in a very tight and low liquidity global market, those with liquidity or things to sell/swap, once they identify as NEEDING bitcoin in the face of growing economic, USD, global asset decay, all bets are off. Do we know wh...
stackatoshi · 147w
why do long duration bonds hurt liquidity more than short duration bonds?
badonyx · 147w
You know the old adage. This is good for bitcoin.
Diesel · 147w
Lyn is the US bond market not really wobbly now?