This week's intel update is out! This week we have a very tepid "pause" to the fight in the Middle East, while all sides rearm and resupply as fast as possible just in case peace is not on the menu. Meanwhile, crime season is well under way in the United States, with many serious and violent incidents taking place over the past week. https://youtu.be/xp97P852sEE

//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.

Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.

Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.

Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.

Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.

Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.

In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.

Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".

Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:

General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.

As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.

Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.

Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.

Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.

Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.

This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.

This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.

Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.

The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.

Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.

Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.

Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.

Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUES 48 HOUR ULTIMATUM FOR IRAN TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BEFORE CHANGING STANCE AND IMPLEMENTING 5 DAY CEASEFIRE. MAJOR AVIATION INCIDENT REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA. MULTIPLE IEDS DISCOVERED IN MARYLAND PARK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Over the weekend the situation deteriorated significantly, with the war heating up on many fronts. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran for them to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the United States will destroy their civilian power plants. This morning, President Trump stated that "productive conversations" had been conducted with Iranian officials, and that the US has emplaced a 5-day halt on the bombing campaign throughout Iran.

Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that they "cannot confirm" various details of the strike, or that the missiles were fired by Iran. This statement came two days after the Iranians denied responsibility for the attack, stating that they did not launch any missiles at Diego Garcia.

Analyst Comment: Whatever the truth is, it can't be independently confirmed due to the nature of the targeting effort occurring in space, outside with realm of eyewitnesses. Either way, it must be noted for posterity that NATO has expressed uncertainty regarding what missile it might have been, and the Iranians are denying that it was them.

Israel: As the war continues, Iranian forces conducted two major retaliatory strikes over the weekend. The first ballistic missile attack occurred a few miles from the Israeli Dimona nuclear facility, with the warhead landing in a heavily urbanized area near where Israeli scientists are known to live. Separately, another Iranian missile targeted the city of Arad, which resulted in a mass casualty event.

Analyst Comment: The Dimona strike was significant as the munition itself appeared to have demonstrated some means of maneuverability in the terminal stages of it's flight, which allowed the warhead to evade missile defenses. If this was intentional, this is more evidence that the Iranians are shifting to their better missiles, which have more capability. Additionally, the response to these strikes signals a shift in Israeli perspective on the war. Previously, Israel has cracked down hard on all media regarding successful Iranian strikes, with footage and geolocation of any successful impacts being extremely hard to come by. With these strikes however, the media lockdown has been lifted, with PM Netanyahu himself visited both sites and conducting media briefings at the impact craters. The reasons for this change of policy are anyone's guess, but it is significant enough to be aware of.

United Kingdom: Over the weekend an arson attack was reported at a Synagogue in Golder's Green, which involved unknown assailants setting multiple private ambulances on fire in the parking area adjacent to the facility.

Analyst Comment: These ambulances were being parked at the Synagogue, but they actually belong to Hatzola Northwest, a private ambulance service for the local area. In any case, video surveillance of Heighfield Road is substantial and there are no less than eight high-resolution security cameras which would have caught the attackers setting these ambulances on fire, so they'll probably be caught very soon.

-HomeFront-

Maryland: Sunday afternoon, local authorities responded to reports of multiple suspicious packages within Fort Washington Park. U.S. Park Police responded to the reports, which resulted in the discovery of 5x Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) of pipe-bomb-type construction. The park was closed as the Prince George County Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team rendered the devices safe. No word yet on who placed the devices or if they were viable explosives.

New York: Last night a major incident was reported at LaGuardia Airport after Air Canada 8646 collided with a firetruck that was crossing the runway as the plane was landing. Both the pilot and copilot were killed during the impact, and several others were severely injured. The crew of the firetruck that was hit survived the impact with broken bones. LaGuardia remains closed while the debris is investigated and recovered.

Analyst Comment: The investigation will take some time to confirm, but as with all aviation mishaps this disaster appears to be a result of multiple factors. The fire truck (Truck 1) was responding to reports of a strange odor onboard another aircraft (United 2384), so the night was already incredibly busy. In the fray of the active emergency declaration underway, ATC gave permission for the firetruck to across an active runway, seeming to forget about the Air Canada flight that had just touched down, which resulted in the aircraft colliding with the firetruck on the runway.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Messaging regarding the war in Iran has become so variable, it's challenging to determine what is actually happening. Simply put, Trump's post on social media sounds a lot like searching for an offramp in the manner of conceding to a ceasefire, without saying the word "ceasefire". Right now, it's certainly possible that the US has quietly agreed to an informal ceasefire, based on the terms of Iran allowing vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a 5-day cessation of American bombing. On the other side, Iranian state media claims that Trump's statement is false, and that they withdrew from talks entirely after he threatened to bomb their civilian power plants. Specifically, Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that not only are talks not being conducted, but they aren't even speaking to the US indirectly through intermediaries.

Otherwise, actions speak louder than words. And on that front strategic movement involving military cargo flights has increased over the past few days, with the United States stepping up logistical efforts to move cargo into the Middle East. The US is moving stuff into the region at breakneck pace, and right now this looks like a deliberate staging of resources for a major offensive. While purely speculative, it is possible that what is being touted as a gracious halt to bombing is actually the result of a shortage of munitions, which need to be topped up before another major offensive action, so at the moment the most likely theory regarding this "quasi-ceasefire" is that this is an attempt to pump the brakes on the rapidly spiraling economic situation, while at the same time rearming and refitting. For context, this 5-day halt to bombing expires on Friday...just after markets close for the weekend.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/NOHHLIBq9FY

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days.

-HomeFront-

Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal.

Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home.

Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events.

Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 Today we dive into the threats at home and overseas, and examine how the war is continuing to expand. International power structures are changing, the drones keep flying, and the American people are not exactly being told the truth about this war. All of which indicates a spicy springtime is on the horizon. https://youtu.be/Q70RSF64H8o

//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE AMERICAN HOMELAND. WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN IRAQ, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Last night CENTCOM reported the loss of one KC-135 Stratotanker, which crashed in western Iraq. Rescue operations were conducted immediately, however all six crew members have been confirmed deceased. The incident occurred as a result of a mid-air collision, which involved another KC-135 aircraft that was also damaged.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning another commercial vessel was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the vessel. The crew abandoned ship, and several crew members remain missing.

Turkey: Another ballistic missile was intercepted overnight, as Iranian forces continue to target Incirlik Airbase. This is the third such interception since the war began.

UAE: Overnight drone attacks continued to strike Dubai, with the International Financial Center being struck by a Shahed drone yesterday evening.

Analyst Comment: Today was also the third day in a row that the UAE has changed their reporting criteria. Social media reports no longer list the total number of drones that impact within their country, with the daily rollup reports instead stating the number of drones and missiles that were "dealt with". Due to the video confirmation of drones impacting within Dubai overnight, these reports are now openly misleading, as the number of successful Iranian strikes remains unreported.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: Yesterday afternoon a vehicle ramming and small arms attack was reported at Temple Israel, one of the largest synagogues in Michigan. The attack began as a vehicle ramming attack targeting the main entrance to the facility. After the suspect breached the entrance, he exited the vehicle and was engaged by security personnel on site, who neutralized the attacker. Initial reports claim that the suspect also had explosives inside his vehicle, however authorities have not confirmed this yet as the vehicle caught fire during the incident and burned down a substantial portion of the structure, including the suspect. No one but the attacker was killed during the attack.

Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Lebanon. Some sources claim that he conducted the attack due to to his family being killed in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in Beirut yesterday, however these claims cannot be independently verified at this time. Either way, the suspect attacked the 12,000-member synagogue on a Thursday afternoon when almost no one was at the facility, which is an indicator that the terrorist did not have much time to plan the attack. More information is expected later on, as forensic analysis of the remains and vehicle debris is conducted.

Virginia: Yesterday a mass shooting was reported at Old Dominion University after a terrorist entered a classroom and began targeting students. Local authorities state that a lone gunman entered an ROTC classroom at ODU shortly before 11:00am yesterday morning, first shooting the instructor, who has been identified as LTC Brandon Shah. Immediately after the first shots were fired, the cadets in the classroom mounted a counterattack, using violence of action to subdue the attacker. At some point during the attack one cadet produced a pocket knife which was subsequently utilized in stabbing the attacker to death. The assailant was found dead by police at the scene after being stabbed 22x times.

Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Mohamad Bailor Jalloh, a naturalized US citizen from Sierra Leone and former National Guard soldier who had previously been convicted of attempting to carry out a terrorist attack. In 2016, Jalloh was arrested after attempting to procure firearms with the intent to carry out a Fort Hood-style mass shooting, which resulted in him being imprisoned in 2017 before he was released in 2024.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, local pro-Iranian militia groups such as the infamous Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have claimed credit for downing the KC-135 over western Iraq last night. However, it's extremely unlikely that the aircraft was shot down based on the damage that was sustained by the other KC-135 involved in the incident. The damaged tail section of the surviving aircraft contained no fragmentation or blast damage indicative of a missile strike, which would be expected in the event of combat damage.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing.

Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy.

Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others.

Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way.

As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate.

Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//