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Recent Notes
//The Wire//2300Z June 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS WAVES OF MIGRANT CRIME REPORTED THROUGHOUT EUROPE. UNITED STATES CONDUCTS ADDITIONAL TARGETING OF IRAN, IRANIANS RESPOND BY TARGETING KUWAIT AGAIN. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED ON TRAIN IN ATLANTA. HENRY NOWAK MURDER BODY CAM FOOTAGE RELEASED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Persian Gulf: Over the weekend, more mutual targeting efforts continued throughout the region. The targeting efforts began after an unidentified drone entered Iranian airspace, which was downed by the Iranians. Around the same time, the United States conducted an airstrike on the radio tower at the Iranian base on Sirik Island in the eastern Persian Gulf. An unidentified location in Gerak was also struck as well, which CENTCOM claims was serving as a drone launch site. After this wave of attacks, the Iranians launched two ballistics missiles toward the airbase that the attack was launched from, which they claim was Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait. CENTCOM claimed that both missiles were intercepted. After the tit-for-tat targeting efforts were conducted on Saturday and Sunday, the United States and Iran continued their targeting efforts this morning. One merchant vessel (the MSC SARISKA V) was struck by an Iranian munition in the northern Persian Gulf, off the coast of Kuwait. Several hours after this first strike, the *SARISKA* reported being hit by a second munition, which caused a fire.
Strait of Hormuz: Following the suspected mine detection off the coast of Oman that was reported on Friday, Omani Naval forces made visual contact with the mine, confirming it's coordinates at grid: 40RDQ3450820703. The mine appears to be a Maham-1 type device, a moored contact mine domestically produced within Iran.
Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated on his social media accounts that he conducted a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, which resulted in Israeli forces halting their advance to Beirut.
Analyst Comment: It is extraordinarily unlikely that the advance has actually stopped, however the reference to Beirut itself is odd because the IDF is currently nowhere near the city and there was no indication that they were headed there anyway (the invasion has so far been confined to mostly the areas near the Israeli border, with the main line of advance crossing the Litani a few days ago). It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Israelis actually did want to occupy the entirety of Lebanon (as this has been stated by politicians many times). However, aspirations are harder to achieve on the battlefield and the IDF has been getting hit hard by FPV drones for weeks. Likewise, the large-scale bombing of Beirut has been the main retaliatory measure for these FPV drone attacks, and regardless of President Trump's phone call, the war continues as before. About 20 minutes after President Trump's post, Hezbollah launched rockets and Israeli forces bombed targets in Lebanon again, with neither side expressing interest in halting the fighting.
France: Mass civil unrest broke out over the weekend, following the UEFA Champions League soccer match resulting in a win for France. Large scale riots were reported throughout Paris, which carried on into Sunday evening. Dozens of assaults were reported, including some reports of individuals being dragged from their vehicles by mobs of migrants and assaulted.
Austria: Yesterday a woman was attacked by an unidentified assailant on a train in Vienna. Local witnesses state that a woman of foreign origin attacked a local Austrian woman in an unprovoked attack while on the subway. No arrests have been made so far regarding this attack.
Germany: This morning a migrant mob attack was reported in the small town of Tuttlingen. The mob attack was reported in the vicinity of a bus stop in the town, and resulted in a mob attempting to beat a man to death in the street. The status of the victim remains unclear.
Analyst Comment: Extreme levels of violence have become very common in small European towns, even quaint villages tucked away in the foothills of the Alps. Many of these towns are now serving as an above-ground railroad of sorts, funneling migrants en masse northward into Germany. Tuttlingen has become one of these such towns. The bus stations at many of these villages are now effectively no-go areas for many locals, as large volumes of migrants tend to congregate at the facilities as they are transported by NGOs throughout the continent.
United Kingdom: This afternoon the bodycam footage of the murder of Henry Nowak was leaked. The footage is worse than what was described in court, and has already resulted in increased calls for police accountability regarding this case.
Analyst Comment: While everyone is rightfully calling for police accountability in this case, it is important to remember that people who directly caused the murder are still free. Only the murderer and the chief accomplice (Digwa's mother) were convicted. Per the official press release from the Southampton Constabulary, two other people were arrested that night; Digwa's family members that even the police have admitted lied on the night of the attack, causing the delay that contributed to Nowak's murder. These two other family members have not been charged with any crime.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: Over the weekend another subway murder was reported in Atlanta. Local authorities state that one assailant stabbed a woman to death on a MARTA train in the vicinity of Oakland City station. The victim died at the scene, and locals claim it was an unprovoked random stabbing attack. The suspect has been identified as John Elijah Matthews, who was arrested at the scene shortly after the murder.
Florida: A street takeover mob attack was reported in Clearwater Beach over the weekend. One individual shot another individual during a street confrontation on Coronado Drive, wounding one person.
Analyst Comment: Other than the shooting, roving bands and mobs swarmed through Clearwater over the weekend, which is likely to get the attention of much more substantial crowd-control efforts due to this area being a very big vacation area at the height of tourism season.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, a pattern is beginning to emerge with regard to American targeting efforts in the region. CENTCOM is now conducting "self-defense" strikes on targets that are really stretching the definition of "self-defense", as per all prior CENTCOM targeting guidance. CENTCOM is claiming that since a radio tower was used at some point to support a drone strike, they can strike it in self-defense. The drones that are being launched by the Iranians throughout the region are very likely not being controlled from Sirik Island, but this outpost is probably being used by forward observers. This site was also probably used as a radio base to communicate with merchant shipping, and issue notices from the Iranians via radio.
More broadly, these more recent targeting efforts also serve as an indicator for what the United States might be trying to do at a more strategic level. Within the past few days, the United States has twice launched offensive targeting efforts, while claiming to conduct a strike under "self-defense" criteria. This has now slipped into more of a "mowing the lawn" approach to targeting Iranian infrastructure, whereby every couple of days the US bombs something, then the Iranians counterattack, and the US clutches pearls and pretends like CENTCOM didn't start it in the first place. How long the Iranians will put up with this is purely up to them, but they also know that these smaller targeting efforts by the United States are probably intended to provoke a knee-jerk reaction and re-ignite the large-scale bombings of the war. Right now, the Iranians have a very powerful position, so they might not want to jeopardize kicking things off again based on a handful of strikes, but that option is always on the table. How things progress from here is anyone's guess, but every bomb that lands in Iran, and every missile that lands at an American base, is another step farther from the negotiating table.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS WAVES OF MIGRANT CRIME REPORTED THROUGHOUT EUROPE. UNITED STATES CONDUCTS ADDITIONAL TARGETING OF IRAN, IRANIANS RESPOND BY TARGETING KUWAIT AGAIN. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED ON TRAIN IN ATLANTA. HENRY NOWAK MURDER BODY CAM FOOTAGE RELEASED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Persian Gulf: Over the weekend, more mutual targeting efforts continued throughout the region. The targeting efforts began after an unidentified drone entered Iranian airspace, which was downed by the Iranians. Around the same time, the United States conducted an airstrike on the radio tower at the Iranian base on Sirik Island in the eastern Persian Gulf. An unidentified location in Gerak was also struck as well, which CENTCOM claims was serving as a drone launch site. After this wave of attacks, the Iranians launched two ballistics missiles toward the airbase that the attack was launched from, which they claim was Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait. CENTCOM claimed that both missiles were intercepted. After the tit-for-tat targeting efforts were conducted on Saturday and Sunday, the United States and Iran continued their targeting efforts this morning. One merchant vessel (the MSC SARISKA V) was struck by an Iranian munition in the northern Persian Gulf, off the coast of Kuwait. Several hours after this first strike, the *SARISKA* reported being hit by a second munition, which caused a fire.
Strait of Hormuz: Following the suspected mine detection off the coast of Oman that was reported on Friday, Omani Naval forces made visual contact with the mine, confirming it's coordinates at grid: 40RDQ3450820703. The mine appears to be a Maham-1 type device, a moored contact mine domestically produced within Iran.
Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated on his social media accounts that he conducted a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, which resulted in Israeli forces halting their advance to Beirut.
Analyst Comment: It is extraordinarily unlikely that the advance has actually stopped, however the reference to Beirut itself is odd because the IDF is currently nowhere near the city and there was no indication that they were headed there anyway (the invasion has so far been confined to mostly the areas near the Israeli border, with the main line of advance crossing the Litani a few days ago). It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Israelis actually did want to occupy the entirety of Lebanon (as this has been stated by politicians many times). However, aspirations are harder to achieve on the battlefield and the IDF has been getting hit hard by FPV drones for weeks. Likewise, the large-scale bombing of Beirut has been the main retaliatory measure for these FPV drone attacks, and regardless of President Trump's phone call, the war continues as before. About 20 minutes after President Trump's post, Hezbollah launched rockets and Israeli forces bombed targets in Lebanon again, with neither side expressing interest in halting the fighting.
France: Mass civil unrest broke out over the weekend, following the UEFA Champions League soccer match resulting in a win for France. Large scale riots were reported throughout Paris, which carried on into Sunday evening. Dozens of assaults were reported, including some reports of individuals being dragged from their vehicles by mobs of migrants and assaulted.
Austria: Yesterday a woman was attacked by an unidentified assailant on a train in Vienna. Local witnesses state that a woman of foreign origin attacked a local Austrian woman in an unprovoked attack while on the subway. No arrests have been made so far regarding this attack.
Germany: This morning a migrant mob attack was reported in the small town of Tuttlingen. The mob attack was reported in the vicinity of a bus stop in the town, and resulted in a mob attempting to beat a man to death in the street. The status of the victim remains unclear.
Analyst Comment: Extreme levels of violence have become very common in small European towns, even quaint villages tucked away in the foothills of the Alps. Many of these towns are now serving as an above-ground railroad of sorts, funneling migrants en masse northward into Germany. Tuttlingen has become one of these such towns. The bus stations at many of these villages are now effectively no-go areas for many locals, as large volumes of migrants tend to congregate at the facilities as they are transported by NGOs throughout the continent.
United Kingdom: This afternoon the bodycam footage of the murder of Henry Nowak was leaked. The footage is worse than what was described in court, and has already resulted in increased calls for police accountability regarding this case.
Analyst Comment: While everyone is rightfully calling for police accountability in this case, it is important to remember that people who directly caused the murder are still free. Only the murderer and the chief accomplice (Digwa's mother) were convicted. Per the official press release from the Southampton Constabulary, two other people were arrested that night; Digwa's family members that even the police have admitted lied on the night of the attack, causing the delay that contributed to Nowak's murder. These two other family members have not been charged with any crime.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: Over the weekend another subway murder was reported in Atlanta. Local authorities state that one assailant stabbed a woman to death on a MARTA train in the vicinity of Oakland City station. The victim died at the scene, and locals claim it was an unprovoked random stabbing attack. The suspect has been identified as John Elijah Matthews, who was arrested at the scene shortly after the murder.
Florida: A street takeover mob attack was reported in Clearwater Beach over the weekend. One individual shot another individual during a street confrontation on Coronado Drive, wounding one person.
Analyst Comment: Other than the shooting, roving bands and mobs swarmed through Clearwater over the weekend, which is likely to get the attention of much more substantial crowd-control efforts due to this area being a very big vacation area at the height of tourism season.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, a pattern is beginning to emerge with regard to American targeting efforts in the region. CENTCOM is now conducting "self-defense" strikes on targets that are really stretching the definition of "self-defense", as per all prior CENTCOM targeting guidance. CENTCOM is claiming that since a radio tower was used at some point to support a drone strike, they can strike it in self-defense. The drones that are being launched by the Iranians throughout the region are very likely not being controlled from Sirik Island, but this outpost is probably being used by forward observers. This site was also probably used as a radio base to communicate with merchant shipping, and issue notices from the Iranians via radio.
More broadly, these more recent targeting efforts also serve as an indicator for what the United States might be trying to do at a more strategic level. Within the past few days, the United States has twice launched offensive targeting efforts, while claiming to conduct a strike under "self-defense" criteria. This has now slipped into more of a "mowing the lawn" approach to targeting Iranian infrastructure, whereby every couple of days the US bombs something, then the Iranians counterattack, and the US clutches pearls and pretends like CENTCOM didn't start it in the first place. How long the Iranians will put up with this is purely up to them, but they also know that these smaller targeting efforts by the United States are probably intended to provoke a knee-jerk reaction and re-ignite the large-scale bombings of the war. Right now, the Iranians have a very powerful position, so they might not want to jeopardize kicking things off again based on a handful of strikes, but that option is always on the table. How things progress from here is anyone's guess, but every bomb that lands in Iran, and every missile that lands at an American base, is another step farther from the negotiating table.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out! This week, the stagnation in the Middle East has given way at times to renewed targeting efforts, while a potential expansion of the Gulf War looms. Here at home, riot season is well underway, with the situation in Newark being a good barometer for how unrest might pop up in other areas if so desired. Link: https://youtu.be/or8riChFbGQ
//The Wire//2300Z May 29, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROBABLE RUSSIAN DRONE IMPACTS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ROMANIA. HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE OVER YEMEN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES ALLEGED LIFTING OF THE AMERICAN BLOCKADE IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning, President Trump made several statements in a post on his Truth Social account. Most importantly, he stated that the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted. Secondly, the chief American bargaining demands regarding a settlement to the Iran war are now the re-opening of the Strait by the Iranians, the removal of the mines, and also the promise that they won't develop nuclear weapons, among other details.
Analyst Comment: Much like previous statements, a short post on social media is not exactly the most clear format to convey all of the nuts and bolts of a potential peace deal, and it is precisely these smaller details which have derailed any agreement thus far. Time will tell how the Iranians react to this news, but if the lifting of the American blockade is indeed true (and immediate, without being contingent on some other unspoken detail), this could be the early indications of the U.S. attempting to walk away from this conflict. As always, it takes two to tango, and the Iranians are unlikely to immediately react to these claims, after being burned on the diplomatic front so many times.
Yemen: This morning Houthi forces shot down another American MQ-9 drone in the vicinity of Marib. This is the second such drone platform shot down in Yemen this month.
Romania: Last night, an apartment building in Galați was struck by an unidentified munition, resulting in a fire breaking out on the upper stories of the building. The strike resulted in two residents of the building being wounded, and the Romanian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the munition was a drone of Russian origin.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The summer fighting season in Ukraine is clearly starting to cause more problems and instability for the European continent, as demonstrated by last night's drone incident in Romania. Right now, a major Russian offensive is underway in Odessa, and fighting along most of the fronts has picked up over the past few weeks. As such, it's not a stretch to surmise that this was a drone-off-course situation as hundreds of drones were used by Russia to attack targets along the southwestern front of the war. However, this is not the first time that Romania has dealt with supposedly "off-course" drones from the war. Drone incursions in Romania have been reported several times before, with the Russian ambassador even being summoned to explain this behavior in September of last year. Additionally, Ukraine has made good use of long-range drones as well, with a total of three tanker vessels reportedly being targeted in the Black Sea just off the coast of Turkey on the same night. As these vessels are a part of Russia's shadow-fleet of sanctioned vessels, these drones were almost certainly Ukrainian, as Ukraine seeks to prevent Russia from capitalizing on the oil shock crisis currently inflating global oil prices. Bottom line, drones are filling the skies by all sides, and as technology improves collateral damage in warfare becomes much more costly, all the while the stakes increase around the world.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROBABLE RUSSIAN DRONE IMPACTS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ROMANIA. HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE OVER YEMEN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES ALLEGED LIFTING OF THE AMERICAN BLOCKADE IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning, President Trump made several statements in a post on his Truth Social account. Most importantly, he stated that the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted. Secondly, the chief American bargaining demands regarding a settlement to the Iran war are now the re-opening of the Strait by the Iranians, the removal of the mines, and also the promise that they won't develop nuclear weapons, among other details.
Analyst Comment: Much like previous statements, a short post on social media is not exactly the most clear format to convey all of the nuts and bolts of a potential peace deal, and it is precisely these smaller details which have derailed any agreement thus far. Time will tell how the Iranians react to this news, but if the lifting of the American blockade is indeed true (and immediate, without being contingent on some other unspoken detail), this could be the early indications of the U.S. attempting to walk away from this conflict. As always, it takes two to tango, and the Iranians are unlikely to immediately react to these claims, after being burned on the diplomatic front so many times.
Yemen: This morning Houthi forces shot down another American MQ-9 drone in the vicinity of Marib. This is the second such drone platform shot down in Yemen this month.
Romania: Last night, an apartment building in Galați was struck by an unidentified munition, resulting in a fire breaking out on the upper stories of the building. The strike resulted in two residents of the building being wounded, and the Romanian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the munition was a drone of Russian origin.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The summer fighting season in Ukraine is clearly starting to cause more problems and instability for the European continent, as demonstrated by last night's drone incident in Romania. Right now, a major Russian offensive is underway in Odessa, and fighting along most of the fronts has picked up over the past few weeks. As such, it's not a stretch to surmise that this was a drone-off-course situation as hundreds of drones were used by Russia to attack targets along the southwestern front of the war. However, this is not the first time that Romania has dealt with supposedly "off-course" drones from the war. Drone incursions in Romania have been reported several times before, with the Russian ambassador even being summoned to explain this behavior in September of last year. Additionally, Ukraine has made good use of long-range drones as well, with a total of three tanker vessels reportedly being targeted in the Black Sea just off the coast of Turkey on the same night. As these vessels are a part of Russia's shadow-fleet of sanctioned vessels, these drones were almost certainly Ukrainian, as Ukraine seeks to prevent Russia from capitalizing on the oil shock crisis currently inflating global oil prices. Bottom line, drones are filling the skies by all sides, and as technology improves collateral damage in warfare becomes much more costly, all the while the stakes increase around the world.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 28, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RIOTS CONTINUE IN NEW JERSEY. UNITED STATES AND IRAN CONTINUE MUTUAL TARGETING EFFORTS IN MIDDLE EAST. MASS STABBING REPORTED IN SWITZERLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: This morning Vickrum Digwa was convicted of the murder of Henry Nowak. His mother, Kiran Kaur, was also convicted for her role in concealing the murder weapon used to kill Nowak. Digwa is scheduled to be sentenced for the crime on June 1st.
Switzerland: This morning a mass stabbing was reported at the train station in Winterthur. One assailant was observed shouting Islamic phrases while conducting the stabbing, which wounded a total of 4x individuals at the train station. The suspect attempted to flee the scene, but was apprehended shortly after the attack.
-HomeFront-
Washington: The investigation continues regarding the chemical explosion at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Company in Longview. As of this morning, a total of 2x confirmed fatalities have been reported, but 9x workers remain missing and are assessed to be deceased. Recovery efforts continue amid complications caused by unstable debris resulting in safety concerns for rescue teams.
New Jersey: Riots continued at the Delaney Hall detention facility, with another flare-up being reported overnight. Clashes between ICE and rioters has been steadily building over the past few days, as a Minneapolis-style unrest model has been applied to the facility. During the day, a mostly-elderly crowd maintains a presence at the site, but when night falls the younger agitators show up to cause chaos. Early this morning, regular citizens began getting involved in the riots, with one sanitation worker confronting the rioters for blocking the road. Separately, another rioter had their foot crushed by a semi truck, due to their preoccupation with attacking an officer resulting in a lack of situational awareness.
Analyst Comment: This situation is getting out of hand, and will probably be a good barometer for other unrest efforts if anti-ICE riots escalate once again this summer. The federal administration being extremely risk averse to highly-kinetic ICE operations has undeniably emboldened rioters and as a result this unrest is likely to remain with very few barriers existing to prevent escalations on the part of the agitators.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the ceasefire remains in name only, as multiple engagements have been reported over the past few days. In addition to the United States striking targets within Iran two days ago, last night CENTCOM conducted more strikes within Iran. These strikes have been confirmed verbally by CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins, however CENTCOM is not posting these kinetic targeting efforts on their social media pages. CENTCOM is, however, admonishing the Iranians for committing an "egregious ceasefire violation".
After the American strikes in Bandar Abbas, last night Iran launched several drones and at least one ballistic missile toward Kuwait. The status of this targeting effort is not known, however CENTCOM claims to have conducted another series of strikes in Iran which allegedly took out one of the drone launchers used for this attack.
In the Strait of Hormuz, another series of engagements was reported this afternoon. A total of 4x merchant vessels were reportedly targeted by Iranian munitions as they attempted to cross the Strait. Information on these targeting efforts is sketchy at best; the UKMTO has not commented on these targeting efforts, and what little details have emerged imply that these were "warning shots" with either drones or missiles as no vessel was successfully hit. At this point it could just as easily have been four "misses" but the end result is that no commercial traffic has transited the Strait today, as the world watches and waits to see if the kinetic phase of the war will resume.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RIOTS CONTINUE IN NEW JERSEY. UNITED STATES AND IRAN CONTINUE MUTUAL TARGETING EFFORTS IN MIDDLE EAST. MASS STABBING REPORTED IN SWITZERLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: This morning Vickrum Digwa was convicted of the murder of Henry Nowak. His mother, Kiran Kaur, was also convicted for her role in concealing the murder weapon used to kill Nowak. Digwa is scheduled to be sentenced for the crime on June 1st.
Switzerland: This morning a mass stabbing was reported at the train station in Winterthur. One assailant was observed shouting Islamic phrases while conducting the stabbing, which wounded a total of 4x individuals at the train station. The suspect attempted to flee the scene, but was apprehended shortly after the attack.
-HomeFront-
Washington: The investigation continues regarding the chemical explosion at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Company in Longview. As of this morning, a total of 2x confirmed fatalities have been reported, but 9x workers remain missing and are assessed to be deceased. Recovery efforts continue amid complications caused by unstable debris resulting in safety concerns for rescue teams.
New Jersey: Riots continued at the Delaney Hall detention facility, with another flare-up being reported overnight. Clashes between ICE and rioters has been steadily building over the past few days, as a Minneapolis-style unrest model has been applied to the facility. During the day, a mostly-elderly crowd maintains a presence at the site, but when night falls the younger agitators show up to cause chaos. Early this morning, regular citizens began getting involved in the riots, with one sanitation worker confronting the rioters for blocking the road. Separately, another rioter had their foot crushed by a semi truck, due to their preoccupation with attacking an officer resulting in a lack of situational awareness.
Analyst Comment: This situation is getting out of hand, and will probably be a good barometer for other unrest efforts if anti-ICE riots escalate once again this summer. The federal administration being extremely risk averse to highly-kinetic ICE operations has undeniably emboldened rioters and as a result this unrest is likely to remain with very few barriers existing to prevent escalations on the part of the agitators.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the ceasefire remains in name only, as multiple engagements have been reported over the past few days. In addition to the United States striking targets within Iran two days ago, last night CENTCOM conducted more strikes within Iran. These strikes have been confirmed verbally by CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins, however CENTCOM is not posting these kinetic targeting efforts on their social media pages. CENTCOM is, however, admonishing the Iranians for committing an "egregious ceasefire violation".
After the American strikes in Bandar Abbas, last night Iran launched several drones and at least one ballistic missile toward Kuwait. The status of this targeting effort is not known, however CENTCOM claims to have conducted another series of strikes in Iran which allegedly took out one of the drone launchers used for this attack.
In the Strait of Hormuz, another series of engagements was reported this afternoon. A total of 4x merchant vessels were reportedly targeted by Iranian munitions as they attempted to cross the Strait. Information on these targeting efforts is sketchy at best; the UKMTO has not commented on these targeting efforts, and what little details have emerged imply that these were "warning shots" with either drones or missiles as no vessel was successfully hit. At this point it could just as easily have been four "misses" but the end result is that no commercial traffic has transited the Strait today, as the world watches and waits to see if the kinetic phase of the war will resume.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES STRIKES FASTBOATS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN RESPONDS BY DOWNING AMERICAN DRONES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN MISSOURI. COUNTER-ICE RIOTS CONTINUE IN NEW JERSEY. CHEMICAL EXPLOSION REPORTED IN WASHINGTON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight the United States conducted strikes within Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated that one SAM site was destroyed in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with several minelaying vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines in the Strait. In response, the Iranians claim to have shot down two drones, an MQ-9 Reaper and an MQ-4C Triton. The Iranians also claim to have engaged an F-35, but did not claim to have shot it down.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Counter-ICE demonstrations and unrest continue at the Delaney Hall Detention Facility. Rioters have clashed with ICE agents several times over the weekend, at times gaining the upper hand as federal forces remain spread thin. Throughout Monday afternoon, into this morning, various stages of kinectivity have been reported, ranging from full-blown riots, to the more standard noise-making protests observed so far during this conflict.
Analyst Comment: This afternoon, several detainees were released from the compound to the cheers of the crowds, but the context for these releases has not been made clear. Either way, the crowd is interpreting these releases as a victory.
Missouri: Yesterday evening a mass shooting was reported at a grocery store in Pleasant Hill. Local authorities state that one suspect entered the parking lot of the store, exited his vehicle, and began firing on shoppers in the parking lot. One citizen was killed exiting the store, and one employee of the store was wounded while moving carts back inside the store. The suspect has been identified as Allen Prince, who attempted to take his own life at the scene, but failed and is expected to survive.
Analyst Comment: So far, there is no clear understanding of why this individual chose to conduct this attack, nor why this venue was selected as the target. More details are expected as the investigation continues.
Washington: This morning a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Company in Longview. Local authorities state that a chemical-based implosion took place after a large tank ruptured and collapsed in on itself this morning. Following the initial event, a major fire broke out at the facility which destroyed much of the compound. Concerning casualties, several employees were killed during the blast, and around a dozen others experienced severe chemical burns. The number of fatalities resulting from this incident has not yet been confirmed by authorities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far this week, the situation in the Middle East remains as clear as mud, as what's happening in the Strait remains hard to confirm. This morning, claims circulated on social media by various media outlets stating that during the night the United States attempted to restart Project Freedom under the cover of darkness. Throughout the afternoon, other claims emerged stating the opposite, that the US has not re-ignited Project Freedom.
Regardless of how it is defined or labeled, evidence does indicate that one Greek-owned supertanker transited the Strait overnight. However, a few hours later, the UKMTO reported that a vessel had been struck with an unknown munition in the Gulf of Oman. Right now it's not clear as to if this is the same vessel that transited, or if this was a different ship. It is also not clear as to if this Greek supertanker was actually escorted by the United States, or merely guided over the radio (after paying the Iranian toll), or if the US was involved in this saga at all. These details might not ever be known with any certainty, but the situation remains tense all around as diplomatic efforts look less and less likely to come about anytime soon.
The United States might indeed have attempted to sneak out a tanker or two once again, to have some justification for saying that the Iranians don't have control over the Strait...even if these vessels that have been "helped" by the US Navy might have actually been granted permission by the Iranians. This detail is not known, but it would be imperative to figure out as the distribution of power in the Middle East hangs in the balance.
More practically for the American people and western Europe, the global fuel crisis continues as before. Following the truth coming out of no peace deal being on the table (along with the kinetic targeting overnight) oil prices rose to above $100 per barrel once again this morning. As we approach the end of May, it is important to remember that the high gas prices that are observed today...are actually artificially low. The United States has been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at an increasing rate since mid-March. This month, the US drained an additional 29 million barrels, which comes after draining another 20 million barrels in April. Similarly, China is also draining their own strategic oil reserves, and has cut their import of petroleum sharply with some estimates suggesting China has cut their imports by about 20% over the past few weeks. Now that the US and others are dipping into their strategic reserves at an increasing rate just to keep oil at roughly $100 per barrel, it's not clear when that supply will eventually dwindle enough to not be able to cover the true impacts the war is having on the energy sector.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES STRIKES FASTBOATS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IRAN RESPONDS BY DOWNING AMERICAN DRONES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN MISSOURI. COUNTER-ICE RIOTS CONTINUE IN NEW JERSEY. CHEMICAL EXPLOSION REPORTED IN WASHINGTON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight the United States conducted strikes within Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated that one SAM site was destroyed in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with several minelaying vessels allegedly attempting to lay mines in the Strait. In response, the Iranians claim to have shot down two drones, an MQ-9 Reaper and an MQ-4C Triton. The Iranians also claim to have engaged an F-35, but did not claim to have shot it down.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Counter-ICE demonstrations and unrest continue at the Delaney Hall Detention Facility. Rioters have clashed with ICE agents several times over the weekend, at times gaining the upper hand as federal forces remain spread thin. Throughout Monday afternoon, into this morning, various stages of kinectivity have been reported, ranging from full-blown riots, to the more standard noise-making protests observed so far during this conflict.
Analyst Comment: This afternoon, several detainees were released from the compound to the cheers of the crowds, but the context for these releases has not been made clear. Either way, the crowd is interpreting these releases as a victory.
Missouri: Yesterday evening a mass shooting was reported at a grocery store in Pleasant Hill. Local authorities state that one suspect entered the parking lot of the store, exited his vehicle, and began firing on shoppers in the parking lot. One citizen was killed exiting the store, and one employee of the store was wounded while moving carts back inside the store. The suspect has been identified as Allen Prince, who attempted to take his own life at the scene, but failed and is expected to survive.
Analyst Comment: So far, there is no clear understanding of why this individual chose to conduct this attack, nor why this venue was selected as the target. More details are expected as the investigation continues.
Washington: This morning a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Company in Longview. Local authorities state that a chemical-based implosion took place after a large tank ruptured and collapsed in on itself this morning. Following the initial event, a major fire broke out at the facility which destroyed much of the compound. Concerning casualties, several employees were killed during the blast, and around a dozen others experienced severe chemical burns. The number of fatalities resulting from this incident has not yet been confirmed by authorities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far this week, the situation in the Middle East remains as clear as mud, as what's happening in the Strait remains hard to confirm. This morning, claims circulated on social media by various media outlets stating that during the night the United States attempted to restart Project Freedom under the cover of darkness. Throughout the afternoon, other claims emerged stating the opposite, that the US has not re-ignited Project Freedom.
Regardless of how it is defined or labeled, evidence does indicate that one Greek-owned supertanker transited the Strait overnight. However, a few hours later, the UKMTO reported that a vessel had been struck with an unknown munition in the Gulf of Oman. Right now it's not clear as to if this is the same vessel that transited, or if this was a different ship. It is also not clear as to if this Greek supertanker was actually escorted by the United States, or merely guided over the radio (after paying the Iranian toll), or if the US was involved in this saga at all. These details might not ever be known with any certainty, but the situation remains tense all around as diplomatic efforts look less and less likely to come about anytime soon.
The United States might indeed have attempted to sneak out a tanker or two once again, to have some justification for saying that the Iranians don't have control over the Strait...even if these vessels that have been "helped" by the US Navy might have actually been granted permission by the Iranians. This detail is not known, but it would be imperative to figure out as the distribution of power in the Middle East hangs in the balance.
More practically for the American people and western Europe, the global fuel crisis continues as before. Following the truth coming out of no peace deal being on the table (along with the kinetic targeting overnight) oil prices rose to above $100 per barrel once again this morning. As we approach the end of May, it is important to remember that the high gas prices that are observed today...are actually artificially low. The United States has been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at an increasing rate since mid-March. This month, the US drained an additional 29 million barrels, which comes after draining another 20 million barrels in April. Similarly, China is also draining their own strategic oil reserves, and has cut their import of petroleum sharply with some estimates suggesting China has cut their imports by about 20% over the past few weeks. Now that the US and others are dipping into their strategic reserves at an increasing rate just to keep oil at roughly $100 per barrel, it's not clear when that supply will eventually dwindle enough to not be able to cover the true impacts the war is having on the energy sector.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WEEKEND RHETORIC OF POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL IN MIDDLE EAST GIVES WAY TO RENEWED EFFORTS TO REIGNITE THE WAR IN IRAN. MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL INCIDENTS REPORTED IN LOS ANGELES. PEPPER SPRAY INCIDENTS CONTINUE IN JAPAN. SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Japan: This morning a chemical incident was reported at Ginza Six Mall in Tokyo. One individual reportedly sprayed an unidentified noxious substance at one of the entrances to the mall, which resulted in many people becoming ill. 12x individuals reported throat pain, and a total of 25x people sought medical treatment after the substance was released.
Analyst Comment: When it comes to chemical incidents involving unknown materials in public places, the potential explanations vary widely. In this case, the origin appears to be pepper spray, with some locals claiming that an argument between two foreign men devolved into one of the two pepper spraying the other. Officially, no statements by authorities have confirmed what happened. As always, incidents like this occurring in Japan are extremely rare as pepper spray is heavily regulated and illegal to carry throughout the country. Consequently, incidents which wouldn't be worth mentioning in the western world result in overwhelming responses in Japan, and in this case this is the second such incident this month. Two weeks ago, someone deployed pepper spray on a train at Kawasaki Station, which occurred without much media attention.
-HomeFront-
California: Multiple major industrial incidents have taken place in Los Angeles over the past few days. Several days ago, a chemical incident was reported at the GKN Aerospace facility in Garden Grove. The incident involved a cooling system failing inside a large tank holding about 7,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate (UN: 1247), a Toxic Industrial Compound (TIC) used in the manufacture of epoxies and resins. This is a highly unstable compound if not handled appropriately, which can result in chemical reactions taking place inside the tank if certain conditions are met. Over the weekend, these conditions resulted in the evacuation of roughly 50,000 people, with local authorities being concerned that the tank might explode. As of this morning, a crack had formed in the tank, relieving the pressure and reducing the risk of an explosion.
Separately, a large fire was reported in South Gate, as an automotive facility burned Sunday afternoon. A shelter-in-place order was issued for the local area due to the smoke and the close proximity of the fire to residential communities. Localized power outages were also reported in the neighborhood, but power was restored after the fire was knocked down throughout the evening.
In East Los Angeles, a spill of crude oil was reported after a telecoms crew installing fiber optic lines accidentally hit a petroleum pipeline, causing a rupture. This pipeline break resulted in a few thousand gallons of crude entering the storm drains in the vicinity of the intersection of Caesar Chavez and Eastern Avenue.
Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, a small arms engagement was reported at the White House, after a man approached the perimeter fence with a handgun. Authorities state that one individual approached a Secret Service checkpoint and drew a firearm from a bag, before engaging the agents at the checkpoint at the corner of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue. Secret Service personnel engaged the shooter, ending the incident. One bystander was wounded during the incident.
Analyst Comment: The suspect has been identified as Nasire Best, who had a long history of presenting security threats to the White House. Best had previously attempted to breach the compound in the past, and had also made verbal threats toward Secret Service personnel. In June of last year, Best was arrested after blocking a traffic lane entering the White House compound, and subsequently committed to a mental institution.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Over the weekend, several developments have taken place with regards to diplomacy in the Middle East. On Saturday, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran was "largely negotiated", subject to the final details being worked out. Almost immediately following this announcement, Iranian state media refuted these claims as not being true, or being different from what has been discussed so far during the negotiations. On Sunday, President Trump reversed his stance on the immediacy of the deal being reached, stating that he has instructed his staff to take their time regarding the details of a deal. This morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that no deal is on the table, and the deadlock continues.
As it stands, it's possible that the weekend shenanigans are the result of a few different theories. For one, the rhetoric from the White House could be the standard effort to calm economic markets. Normally, these "good news" social media posts are issued on Monday mornings shortly before the opening bell on Wall Street, but lately have also been taking place late in the week. Conversely, the confusing messaging regarding a potential peace deal could me more organic...it's not the first time that peace talks have collapsed at the eleventh hour all on their own, or from actions by parties around the region objecting to the deal in some manner.
It's also possible that this is a repeat of the now long-forgotten final days before this war began, most notably what transpired in the 72 hours leading up to the February 28th attacks. In retrospect, history indicates that even as the last-minute negotiations were taking place, the decision to use military force had been made many days before the war officially began. Likewise, a similar situation might be getting set up right now; it is possible that the US is transitioning into a renewed targeting effort. Until something happens either way, the three main possibilities remain, just as they have since the start of the ceasefire: Either a deal is reached and everything returns to normal as best it can, or the U.S. returns to bombing and the war resumes, or the stalemate continues as before with no real change to any of the points of deadlock. Time will tell what happens next, but for now nothing is signed and the "pause" to the war continues.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WEEKEND RHETORIC OF POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL IN MIDDLE EAST GIVES WAY TO RENEWED EFFORTS TO REIGNITE THE WAR IN IRAN. MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL INCIDENTS REPORTED IN LOS ANGELES. PEPPER SPRAY INCIDENTS CONTINUE IN JAPAN. SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Japan: This morning a chemical incident was reported at Ginza Six Mall in Tokyo. One individual reportedly sprayed an unidentified noxious substance at one of the entrances to the mall, which resulted in many people becoming ill. 12x individuals reported throat pain, and a total of 25x people sought medical treatment after the substance was released.
Analyst Comment: When it comes to chemical incidents involving unknown materials in public places, the potential explanations vary widely. In this case, the origin appears to be pepper spray, with some locals claiming that an argument between two foreign men devolved into one of the two pepper spraying the other. Officially, no statements by authorities have confirmed what happened. As always, incidents like this occurring in Japan are extremely rare as pepper spray is heavily regulated and illegal to carry throughout the country. Consequently, incidents which wouldn't be worth mentioning in the western world result in overwhelming responses in Japan, and in this case this is the second such incident this month. Two weeks ago, someone deployed pepper spray on a train at Kawasaki Station, which occurred without much media attention.
-HomeFront-
California: Multiple major industrial incidents have taken place in Los Angeles over the past few days. Several days ago, a chemical incident was reported at the GKN Aerospace facility in Garden Grove. The incident involved a cooling system failing inside a large tank holding about 7,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate (UN: 1247), a Toxic Industrial Compound (TIC) used in the manufacture of epoxies and resins. This is a highly unstable compound if not handled appropriately, which can result in chemical reactions taking place inside the tank if certain conditions are met. Over the weekend, these conditions resulted in the evacuation of roughly 50,000 people, with local authorities being concerned that the tank might explode. As of this morning, a crack had formed in the tank, relieving the pressure and reducing the risk of an explosion.
Separately, a large fire was reported in South Gate, as an automotive facility burned Sunday afternoon. A shelter-in-place order was issued for the local area due to the smoke and the close proximity of the fire to residential communities. Localized power outages were also reported in the neighborhood, but power was restored after the fire was knocked down throughout the evening.
In East Los Angeles, a spill of crude oil was reported after a telecoms crew installing fiber optic lines accidentally hit a petroleum pipeline, causing a rupture. This pipeline break resulted in a few thousand gallons of crude entering the storm drains in the vicinity of the intersection of Caesar Chavez and Eastern Avenue.
Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, a small arms engagement was reported at the White House, after a man approached the perimeter fence with a handgun. Authorities state that one individual approached a Secret Service checkpoint and drew a firearm from a bag, before engaging the agents at the checkpoint at the corner of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue. Secret Service personnel engaged the shooter, ending the incident. One bystander was wounded during the incident.
Analyst Comment: The suspect has been identified as Nasire Best, who had a long history of presenting security threats to the White House. Best had previously attempted to breach the compound in the past, and had also made verbal threats toward Secret Service personnel. In June of last year, Best was arrested after blocking a traffic lane entering the White House compound, and subsequently committed to a mental institution.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Over the weekend, several developments have taken place with regards to diplomacy in the Middle East. On Saturday, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran was "largely negotiated", subject to the final details being worked out. Almost immediately following this announcement, Iranian state media refuted these claims as not being true, or being different from what has been discussed so far during the negotiations. On Sunday, President Trump reversed his stance on the immediacy of the deal being reached, stating that he has instructed his staff to take their time regarding the details of a deal. This morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that no deal is on the table, and the deadlock continues.
As it stands, it's possible that the weekend shenanigans are the result of a few different theories. For one, the rhetoric from the White House could be the standard effort to calm economic markets. Normally, these "good news" social media posts are issued on Monday mornings shortly before the opening bell on Wall Street, but lately have also been taking place late in the week. Conversely, the confusing messaging regarding a potential peace deal could me more organic...it's not the first time that peace talks have collapsed at the eleventh hour all on their own, or from actions by parties around the region objecting to the deal in some manner.
It's also possible that this is a repeat of the now long-forgotten final days before this war began, most notably what transpired in the 72 hours leading up to the February 28th attacks. In retrospect, history indicates that even as the last-minute negotiations were taking place, the decision to use military force had been made many days before the war officially began. Likewise, a similar situation might be getting set up right now; it is possible that the US is transitioning into a renewed targeting effort. Until something happens either way, the three main possibilities remain, just as they have since the start of the ceasefire: Either a deal is reached and everything returns to normal as best it can, or the U.S. returns to bombing and the war resumes, or the stalemate continues as before with no real change to any of the points of deadlock. Time will tell what happens next, but for now nothing is signed and the "pause" to the war continues.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EXPLOSION STRIKES HUNGARIAN PETROCHEMICAL REFINERY. W.H.O. WARNS OF EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE CONGO. RUMORS OF POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Hungary: This morning an explosion was reported at the MOL petrochemical facility in Tiszaújváros. Hungarian officials claim that the explosion took place as the Olefin-1 unit was being brought online, and a compressor exploded at the plant. One worker was killed during the explosion.
Analyst Comment: While this refinery was first build decades ago, most of the facility is comparatively new, with the main installation undergoing major overhaul and expansion operations being completed in 2024. The main product produced by this installation is polyol, a precursor for the production of plastics.
Africa: Concerns have been growing over the past few days regarding an outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A total of 82 cases have been confirmed so far in the Congo, and around 750 more suspected cases are being monitored. The WHO has also elevated the risk level to "VERY HIGH" regarding this disease within the Congo.
Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell if this is going to be another big crisis, however the WHO is pushing in hard, and the United States has implemented travel controls for commercial aviation coming from the region. Ebola crises normally come and go in Africa, and it's always challenging to determine if the next one will be a more widespread concern, especially when public distrust of medical agencies is already high in the wake of the COVID era.
-HomeFront-
Indiana: This morning a shooting was reported inside Franciscan Health Hospital in Michigan City. The incident began after Deputy Jon Samuelson of the LaPorte County Sheriff's Office stopped to render aid to a disabled vehicle near Westville. The inhabitant of the vehicle requested to be taken to the hospital for an unknown injury, which the officer did. After delivering the individual to the hospital, authorities made the connection that the individual was actually a suspect in an undisclosed crime last night, prompting Deputy Samuelson to re-enter the hospital to make contact with the suspect. Upon doing so, the individual produced a firearm inside the Emergency department, and shot the officer three times, before fleeing into a wooded area outside the facility. The suspect has been identified as Sharod Grafton, Jr. and was apprehended shortly after the shooting.
Washington D.C. - This afternoon Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigned from her position. Her resignation letter indicated that this departure is due to her husband's recent cancer diagnosis, and that this resignation is effective as of June 30th.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, reports are widely contradictory regarding recent leaks of a potential peace agreement draft. Saudi sources have leaked what they claim is a rough draft of the peace agreement, which includes a list of very tentative points. In summary, the alleged draft as leaked is basically a stalemate. The US lifts sanctions on Iran, and Iran opens the Strait, while all sides agree to not invade or target each other anymore. As a result, many view this leak rather dubiously as this is a far cry from what the United States has said was acceptable in the past.
Regarding this war, one's watch can nearly be set by the timing and nature of the rhetoric that emerges. Reports of peace agreements have arrived like clockwork on Friday's and Monday's nearly every week since the start of the war, and time and time again have proven to not be serious attempts at peace but rather attempts to calm the markets. However, despite this clear pattern every claim is a fake until it isn't, and eventually something will have to be agreed upon to open the Strait. As it stands, opening the Strait in exchange for lifting sanctions is probably the simplest trade that can actually be agreed upon, especially since this would require the Iranians to give up their only bargaining chip at the moment (which on a strategic level they are probably okay with since they know that they can always close the Strait if attacked again). Time will tell how this works out, but as it stands nothing has been signed, and it's not over until the fat lady sings.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EXPLOSION STRIKES HUNGARIAN PETROCHEMICAL REFINERY. W.H.O. WARNS OF EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE CONGO. RUMORS OF POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Hungary: This morning an explosion was reported at the MOL petrochemical facility in Tiszaújváros. Hungarian officials claim that the explosion took place as the Olefin-1 unit was being brought online, and a compressor exploded at the plant. One worker was killed during the explosion.
Analyst Comment: While this refinery was first build decades ago, most of the facility is comparatively new, with the main installation undergoing major overhaul and expansion operations being completed in 2024. The main product produced by this installation is polyol, a precursor for the production of plastics.
Africa: Concerns have been growing over the past few days regarding an outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A total of 82 cases have been confirmed so far in the Congo, and around 750 more suspected cases are being monitored. The WHO has also elevated the risk level to "VERY HIGH" regarding this disease within the Congo.
Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell if this is going to be another big crisis, however the WHO is pushing in hard, and the United States has implemented travel controls for commercial aviation coming from the region. Ebola crises normally come and go in Africa, and it's always challenging to determine if the next one will be a more widespread concern, especially when public distrust of medical agencies is already high in the wake of the COVID era.
-HomeFront-
Indiana: This morning a shooting was reported inside Franciscan Health Hospital in Michigan City. The incident began after Deputy Jon Samuelson of the LaPorte County Sheriff's Office stopped to render aid to a disabled vehicle near Westville. The inhabitant of the vehicle requested to be taken to the hospital for an unknown injury, which the officer did. After delivering the individual to the hospital, authorities made the connection that the individual was actually a suspect in an undisclosed crime last night, prompting Deputy Samuelson to re-enter the hospital to make contact with the suspect. Upon doing so, the individual produced a firearm inside the Emergency department, and shot the officer three times, before fleeing into a wooded area outside the facility. The suspect has been identified as Sharod Grafton, Jr. and was apprehended shortly after the shooting.
Washington D.C. - This afternoon Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigned from her position. Her resignation letter indicated that this departure is due to her husband's recent cancer diagnosis, and that this resignation is effective as of June 30th.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, reports are widely contradictory regarding recent leaks of a potential peace agreement draft. Saudi sources have leaked what they claim is a rough draft of the peace agreement, which includes a list of very tentative points. In summary, the alleged draft as leaked is basically a stalemate. The US lifts sanctions on Iran, and Iran opens the Strait, while all sides agree to not invade or target each other anymore. As a result, many view this leak rather dubiously as this is a far cry from what the United States has said was acceptable in the past.
Regarding this war, one's watch can nearly be set by the timing and nature of the rhetoric that emerges. Reports of peace agreements have arrived like clockwork on Friday's and Monday's nearly every week since the start of the war, and time and time again have proven to not be serious attempts at peace but rather attempts to calm the markets. However, despite this clear pattern every claim is a fake until it isn't, and eventually something will have to be agreed upon to open the Strait. As it stands, opening the Strait in exchange for lifting sanctions is probably the simplest trade that can actually be agreed upon, especially since this would require the Iranians to give up their only bargaining chip at the moment (which on a strategic level they are probably okay with since they know that they can always close the Strait if attacked again). Time will tell how this works out, but as it stands nothing has been signed, and it's not over until the fat lady sings.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 21, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VIKRAM DIGWA TRIAL CONTINUES IN UNITED KINGDOM. PARIS TERRORIST TO BE RELEASED FROM PRISON FOR GOOD BEHAVIOR. HAZMAT SITUATION REPORTED IN NEW MEXICO. ALLEGED "IED" ATTACK REPORTED IN PENNSYLVANIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: Societal anger is growing as the details of the murder of Henry Nowak come to light as the trial of Vikram Digwa continues. The court has observed the audio/video recordings of the police response, which confirm that Nowak told the responding officer that he had been stabbed, but the officer denied this even though Nowak was actively bleeding. The evidence also indicated that Digwa's entire extended family arrived on scene to defend the murderer, and that Digwa confessed to stabbing Nowak while speaking to his brother after the truth had come out and he had been detained in the back of a police vehicle.
Analyst Comment: Today, one Member of Parliament (Robert Jenrick) commented on the trial, specifically with regards to the two-tier policing system. So far the words of this one MP have been the only statement by the British government acknowledging the case.
France: One of the masterminds for the 2015 Paris terror attacks has been granted conditional release from prison. Mohamed Bakkali, one of the logistical coordinators and planners for the attacks was originally sentenced to 25 years in a Belgian prison for his role in the attacks, however he has been granted several 36-hour vacation breaks from prison, which he can use to depart prison grounds during his sentence.
Analyst Comment: The coordinated terror attacks conducted throughout Europe on November 13th, 2015 were the most coordinated and deadly attacks in recent memory. These attacks took the form of multiple small arms engagements and bombings throughout Paris, with the most notable attack occurring at the Bataclan Theatre. A total of 130 people were killed at this venue, and 416 others were wounded by small arms and shrapnel. Since the attack at this venue took several hours, many victims were found mutilated, dismembered, and tortured to death. Most of the attackers were killed that night, however the planning coordinators escaped before being detained later on. Bakkali was one of these individuals, and Belgian authorities are seeking to permanently release him from prison, purely because he seems nice.
-HomeFront-
New Mexico: Last night a HAZMAT situation was reported in the town of Mountainair following the discovery of a possible narcotics lab. Local authorities responded to a residence on Hanlon Avenue, where they discovered four unresponsive individuals, three of which later died of overdose at a hospital. During the response to the residence, a total of 18x first responders were exposed to an unidentified Toxic Industrial Compound (TIC) inside the structure, which required hospitalization. All have been discharged from the hospital except for 3x responders, who require further medical treatment.
Analyst Comment: The substance has not yet been identified and samples are under investigation to determine what it was. This residence was possibly serving as a meth lab or fentanyl production facility, so there's no telling what kind of chemicals were being used inside.
Pennsylvania: Yesterday two men were arrested in conjunction with a suspected IED attack which was conducted in Catasauqua two days ago. On Tuesday, an incident was reported at the Salem United Church of Christ on 3rd Street, which was serving as a polling place for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District at the time of the incident. Matthew and Jack Pletz were arrested after surveillance footage from the Church identified the suspects throwing an explosive device out of the window of their truck, before driving back to their residence adjacent to the polling place, at the corner of 3rd and Pine Street.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Media is reporting the Pennsylvania incident to be a full-blown IED attack, but this may have been a situation of a couple of idiots throwing fireworks and engaging in public tomfoolery. Reading between the lines of the media reporting, it sounds like two brothers threw an M-80 firework at the church, before arriving at their own residence half a block away. Once the police arrived, they got a warrant to search the truck and found a box of illegal fireworks (some of which appeared to be homemade) and at least one item that authorities are classifying as a destructive device. This device is specifically described as being encased in plastic, which is an odd detail to focus on if these were high-grade devices. The detail of the suspects literally conducting an IED attack at their own residence would be rather dumb if the suspects intended to cause mass death and destruction. These idiots probably saw people lining up at the polling place, and wanted to engage in a bit of public nuisance as they were arriving home that day. It's still an illegal act, but not exactly the complex IED attack it was made out to be based on the information that has been made public.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VIKRAM DIGWA TRIAL CONTINUES IN UNITED KINGDOM. PARIS TERRORIST TO BE RELEASED FROM PRISON FOR GOOD BEHAVIOR. HAZMAT SITUATION REPORTED IN NEW MEXICO. ALLEGED "IED" ATTACK REPORTED IN PENNSYLVANIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: Societal anger is growing as the details of the murder of Henry Nowak come to light as the trial of Vikram Digwa continues. The court has observed the audio/video recordings of the police response, which confirm that Nowak told the responding officer that he had been stabbed, but the officer denied this even though Nowak was actively bleeding. The evidence also indicated that Digwa's entire extended family arrived on scene to defend the murderer, and that Digwa confessed to stabbing Nowak while speaking to his brother after the truth had come out and he had been detained in the back of a police vehicle.
Analyst Comment: Today, one Member of Parliament (Robert Jenrick) commented on the trial, specifically with regards to the two-tier policing system. So far the words of this one MP have been the only statement by the British government acknowledging the case.
France: One of the masterminds for the 2015 Paris terror attacks has been granted conditional release from prison. Mohamed Bakkali, one of the logistical coordinators and planners for the attacks was originally sentenced to 25 years in a Belgian prison for his role in the attacks, however he has been granted several 36-hour vacation breaks from prison, which he can use to depart prison grounds during his sentence.
Analyst Comment: The coordinated terror attacks conducted throughout Europe on November 13th, 2015 were the most coordinated and deadly attacks in recent memory. These attacks took the form of multiple small arms engagements and bombings throughout Paris, with the most notable attack occurring at the Bataclan Theatre. A total of 130 people were killed at this venue, and 416 others were wounded by small arms and shrapnel. Since the attack at this venue took several hours, many victims were found mutilated, dismembered, and tortured to death. Most of the attackers were killed that night, however the planning coordinators escaped before being detained later on. Bakkali was one of these individuals, and Belgian authorities are seeking to permanently release him from prison, purely because he seems nice.
-HomeFront-
New Mexico: Last night a HAZMAT situation was reported in the town of Mountainair following the discovery of a possible narcotics lab. Local authorities responded to a residence on Hanlon Avenue, where they discovered four unresponsive individuals, three of which later died of overdose at a hospital. During the response to the residence, a total of 18x first responders were exposed to an unidentified Toxic Industrial Compound (TIC) inside the structure, which required hospitalization. All have been discharged from the hospital except for 3x responders, who require further medical treatment.
Analyst Comment: The substance has not yet been identified and samples are under investigation to determine what it was. This residence was possibly serving as a meth lab or fentanyl production facility, so there's no telling what kind of chemicals were being used inside.
Pennsylvania: Yesterday two men were arrested in conjunction with a suspected IED attack which was conducted in Catasauqua two days ago. On Tuesday, an incident was reported at the Salem United Church of Christ on 3rd Street, which was serving as a polling place for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District at the time of the incident. Matthew and Jack Pletz were arrested after surveillance footage from the Church identified the suspects throwing an explosive device out of the window of their truck, before driving back to their residence adjacent to the polling place, at the corner of 3rd and Pine Street.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Media is reporting the Pennsylvania incident to be a full-blown IED attack, but this may have been a situation of a couple of idiots throwing fireworks and engaging in public tomfoolery. Reading between the lines of the media reporting, it sounds like two brothers threw an M-80 firework at the church, before arriving at their own residence half a block away. Once the police arrived, they got a warrant to search the truck and found a box of illegal fireworks (some of which appeared to be homemade) and at least one item that authorities are classifying as a destructive device. This device is specifically described as being encased in plastic, which is an odd detail to focus on if these were high-grade devices. The detail of the suspects literally conducting an IED attack at their own residence would be rather dumb if the suspects intended to cause mass death and destruction. These idiots probably saw people lining up at the polling place, and wanted to engage in a bit of public nuisance as they were arriving home that day. It's still an illegal act, but not exactly the complex IED attack it was made out to be based on the information that has been made public.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POTENTIAL FOR WAR TO RESUME IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS ELEVATED. VIOLENT ATTACKS, STREET TAKEOVERS, AND MOB ACTIVITY REMAINS PARAMOUNT IN UNITED STATES. U.S. TENSIONS WITH CUBA CONTINUE TO ESCALATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding and seizure of the M/T *CELESTIAL SEA* in the Gulf of Oman. This vessel was attempting to run the American blockade to onload cargo within Iran.
Analyst Comment: Otherwise the grand question of further military action remains. Regional aversion to a resumption of the conflict is understandably high, however military measures to prepare for a resumption of the war are ongoing. Both the Iranians and the United States have conducted substantial resupply and rearming campaigns during the ceasefire, and the Israelis have reached a point of semi-stability regarding their ground invasion of Lebanon. The Emirates and Saudis have likewise been the main belligerents actually conducting targeting efforts during the ceasefire, so they're also ready to go at a moment's notice. All diplomacy has failed so far, and all drafts of any sort of peace settlement provided indicate that all parties are probably further from a peace agreement right now, than when the war first began. All things considered, nothing might happen, or the war might kick off again soon, with President Trump himself indicating that the war might begin again this weekend.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon, the DoJ announced the indictment of Raul Castro on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, which is linked to the downing of two American planes in 1996.
Analyst Comment: American aspirations for control of Cuba have become increasingly more serious over the past few weeks, with various tactics being used to apply pressure on the Cuban government. Of note, Castro is not physically located in the United States...he's in Cuba. As a result, this indictment could be laying the groundwork for a Maduro-style operation to snatch him, while simultaneously expanding the American foothold on the island.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the nation, various instances of civil crime and unrest have resulted in localized states of chaos in various locations. Street takeovers have become common in most major cities, and mass fights/mobs/riots have become a routine threat as well. In Rhode Island, a mass fight resulted in 3x people being stabbed at Narragansett Town Beach. The same day, a riot of 400-500 people was dispersed by police in Rochester, NY after a meetup turned into a mass fight in Ontario Beach Park. In Washington D.C. local authorities are still seeking information on the suspects who caused a mob attack at the Navy Yard Chipotle over the weekend. In Long Branch, New Jersey a mass riot broke out after mobs began attacking cars in Pier Village. This devolved into a full-blown riot, with a state of emergency being declared, a curfew being implemented, and riot police dispersing the crowds.
In all of these cases, there was no reason for the unrest and destruction...this is just now routine behavior in many cities. As summertime arrives, the standard and routine behavioral/cultural considerations which make all major US cities very low-trust environments get dialed up to eleven, and street takeovers and flash mobs are very likely. From a threat assessment perspective, these types of incidents strike without cause or much warning, and take place purely due to the degradation of societal norms of accountability. As a result, there is no "trigger" to watch out for, and the only indicator of impending violence is the gathering of large crowds of people who are likely to engage in such behavior. Most of these riots are conducted purely for the enjoyment of violence, and consequently there's not much that can be done to mitigate these types of incidents, with the exception of avoiding large crowds which are likely to devolve into chaos. These riots are occurring during the middle of the day, on a weekday. And with Memorial Day weekend coming up in a few days, the potential for civil unrest is high.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POTENTIAL FOR WAR TO RESUME IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS ELEVATED. VIOLENT ATTACKS, STREET TAKEOVERS, AND MOB ACTIVITY REMAINS PARAMOUNT IN UNITED STATES. U.S. TENSIONS WITH CUBA CONTINUE TO ESCALATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding and seizure of the M/T *CELESTIAL SEA* in the Gulf of Oman. This vessel was attempting to run the American blockade to onload cargo within Iran.
Analyst Comment: Otherwise the grand question of further military action remains. Regional aversion to a resumption of the conflict is understandably high, however military measures to prepare for a resumption of the war are ongoing. Both the Iranians and the United States have conducted substantial resupply and rearming campaigns during the ceasefire, and the Israelis have reached a point of semi-stability regarding their ground invasion of Lebanon. The Emirates and Saudis have likewise been the main belligerents actually conducting targeting efforts during the ceasefire, so they're also ready to go at a moment's notice. All diplomacy has failed so far, and all drafts of any sort of peace settlement provided indicate that all parties are probably further from a peace agreement right now, than when the war first began. All things considered, nothing might happen, or the war might kick off again soon, with President Trump himself indicating that the war might begin again this weekend.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon, the DoJ announced the indictment of Raul Castro on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, which is linked to the downing of two American planes in 1996.
Analyst Comment: American aspirations for control of Cuba have become increasingly more serious over the past few weeks, with various tactics being used to apply pressure on the Cuban government. Of note, Castro is not physically located in the United States...he's in Cuba. As a result, this indictment could be laying the groundwork for a Maduro-style operation to snatch him, while simultaneously expanding the American foothold on the island.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the nation, various instances of civil crime and unrest have resulted in localized states of chaos in various locations. Street takeovers have become common in most major cities, and mass fights/mobs/riots have become a routine threat as well. In Rhode Island, a mass fight resulted in 3x people being stabbed at Narragansett Town Beach. The same day, a riot of 400-500 people was dispersed by police in Rochester, NY after a meetup turned into a mass fight in Ontario Beach Park. In Washington D.C. local authorities are still seeking information on the suspects who caused a mob attack at the Navy Yard Chipotle over the weekend. In Long Branch, New Jersey a mass riot broke out after mobs began attacking cars in Pier Village. This devolved into a full-blown riot, with a state of emergency being declared, a curfew being implemented, and riot police dispersing the crowds.
In all of these cases, there was no reason for the unrest and destruction...this is just now routine behavior in many cities. As summertime arrives, the standard and routine behavioral/cultural considerations which make all major US cities very low-trust environments get dialed up to eleven, and street takeovers and flash mobs are very likely. From a threat assessment perspective, these types of incidents strike without cause or much warning, and take place purely due to the degradation of societal norms of accountability. As a result, there is no "trigger" to watch out for, and the only indicator of impending violence is the gathering of large crowds of people who are likely to engage in such behavior. Most of these riots are conducted purely for the enjoyment of violence, and consequently there's not much that can be done to mitigate these types of incidents, with the exception of avoiding large crowds which are likely to devolve into chaos. These riots are occurring during the middle of the day, on a weekday. And with Memorial Day weekend coming up in a few days, the potential for civil unrest is high.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING YESTERDAYS SHOOTING IN CALIFORNIA. TENSIONS INCREASE IN IRELAND FOLLOWING DEATH OF CONGOLESE NATIONAL. WAR POTENTIAL IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS AS ALL PARTIES CONTINUE PREPARING FOR CONFLICT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Tensions have increased sharply following the death of a Congolese man on Friday. Yves Sakila died while resisting arrest, after he shoplifted from a local store and broke an elderly man's leg. This death has resulted in a mobilization of the Congolese population of Dublin, with mass protests planned for tonight and the next few days.
Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell, but many locals are saying this is Dublin's version of George Floyd in terms of civil unrest and the large Congolese population in Ireland. Roving bands of Congolese gangs commonly cause problems within Dublin, and since local tensions were already boiling before this, clashes are likely if the Congolese decide to escalate the situation.
Middle East: The potential for a resumption of the war remains on the table, as rhetoric on all sides continues to escalate. The creation and streamlining of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (the Iranian organization that has claimed administrative control of the Strait) has continued to be of cause for concern for western-aligned vessels. The handful of ships that are transiting the Strait are sailing with their transponders turned off, and so far all vessels have transited with Iranian approval. This afternoon, President Trump stated that he was only one hour away from ordering the resumption of the fighting yesterday. He also stated that the fighting may resume in a few days regardless, and all parties around the region remain ready for the ceasefire to come to an end.
-HomeFront-
Alabama: Yesterday a suspect was arrested in conjunction with a missing person investigation in Northport. Two weeks ago, Karen Deann Hollis was reported missing, after concerned family members failed to locate her. On Saturday, her remains were located at an undisclosed location in Greene County. At the scene, authorities arrested Randall Lendell Dejourney on charges of abusing human remains for 8 days. He is being held in jail on a $15,000 cash bond and no murder charges have been filed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Few details have come to light regarding yesterday's shooting at the San Diego Islamic Center, however the suspects have been identified as Cain Clark and Caleb Vazquez. The two shooters attempted to conduct a mass shooting at the facility, and began the attack by killing the security guard at the front entry point of the building. After making entrance to the facility, the suspects killed two more people, before re-entering their vehicle and driving a short distance from the facility. Both suspects were found deceased inside the vehicle with self-inflicted gunshot wounds.
Concerning the suspects themselves, the very few details that have emerged indicate this was very likely the standard transgender shooting. Both suspects were of questionable status, though both appear to have been born male. Slogans and statements were written on the firearms with a white paint pen, which has become a staggeringly common calling card of most trans-affiliated mass shootings (as the shooters often try to copy previous attacks). Both attackers appear to have been Hispanic, but also used symbols from political movements that would not have approved of their lifestyle choices, which is another hallmark of such attacks as well.
No official link to the Order of Nine Angles (O9A) or the 764 Network has been made, however this would be wise to investigate as this shooting is nearly identical to all prior O9A/764 mass murders from years past. The attackers also allegedly livestreaming the attack fits with many other similar attacks as well.
Of note, another bit of amplifying information might be helpful for factoring in to risk assessments. Five days ago, a nationwide shortage of Progesterone was reported. Among many other more traditional uses, this medication is used by transgender individuals to level out mood changes during their process. More strategically, this could be nothing or it could be something. There's no indication at all that the two shooters in California were affected by this drug, and there is no evidence linking this attack to any drug shortage as drug shortages happen all of the time for varying reasons. However, copycat incidents are an extreme risk in the wake of attacks like this, and a drug which is intended to affect mood changes among this population is in short supply. Again, this might be a loose correlation at best, but it's worth being aware of when trying to calculate the risk of future copycat attacks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING YESTERDAYS SHOOTING IN CALIFORNIA. TENSIONS INCREASE IN IRELAND FOLLOWING DEATH OF CONGOLESE NATIONAL. WAR POTENTIAL IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS AS ALL PARTIES CONTINUE PREPARING FOR CONFLICT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Tensions have increased sharply following the death of a Congolese man on Friday. Yves Sakila died while resisting arrest, after he shoplifted from a local store and broke an elderly man's leg. This death has resulted in a mobilization of the Congolese population of Dublin, with mass protests planned for tonight and the next few days.
Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell, but many locals are saying this is Dublin's version of George Floyd in terms of civil unrest and the large Congolese population in Ireland. Roving bands of Congolese gangs commonly cause problems within Dublin, and since local tensions were already boiling before this, clashes are likely if the Congolese decide to escalate the situation.
Middle East: The potential for a resumption of the war remains on the table, as rhetoric on all sides continues to escalate. The creation and streamlining of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (the Iranian organization that has claimed administrative control of the Strait) has continued to be of cause for concern for western-aligned vessels. The handful of ships that are transiting the Strait are sailing with their transponders turned off, and so far all vessels have transited with Iranian approval. This afternoon, President Trump stated that he was only one hour away from ordering the resumption of the fighting yesterday. He also stated that the fighting may resume in a few days regardless, and all parties around the region remain ready for the ceasefire to come to an end.
-HomeFront-
Alabama: Yesterday a suspect was arrested in conjunction with a missing person investigation in Northport. Two weeks ago, Karen Deann Hollis was reported missing, after concerned family members failed to locate her. On Saturday, her remains were located at an undisclosed location in Greene County. At the scene, authorities arrested Randall Lendell Dejourney on charges of abusing human remains for 8 days. He is being held in jail on a $15,000 cash bond and no murder charges have been filed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Few details have come to light regarding yesterday's shooting at the San Diego Islamic Center, however the suspects have been identified as Cain Clark and Caleb Vazquez. The two shooters attempted to conduct a mass shooting at the facility, and began the attack by killing the security guard at the front entry point of the building. After making entrance to the facility, the suspects killed two more people, before re-entering their vehicle and driving a short distance from the facility. Both suspects were found deceased inside the vehicle with self-inflicted gunshot wounds.
Concerning the suspects themselves, the very few details that have emerged indicate this was very likely the standard transgender shooting. Both suspects were of questionable status, though both appear to have been born male. Slogans and statements were written on the firearms with a white paint pen, which has become a staggeringly common calling card of most trans-affiliated mass shootings (as the shooters often try to copy previous attacks). Both attackers appear to have been Hispanic, but also used symbols from political movements that would not have approved of their lifestyle choices, which is another hallmark of such attacks as well.
No official link to the Order of Nine Angles (O9A) or the 764 Network has been made, however this would be wise to investigate as this shooting is nearly identical to all prior O9A/764 mass murders from years past. The attackers also allegedly livestreaming the attack fits with many other similar attacks as well.
Of note, another bit of amplifying information might be helpful for factoring in to risk assessments. Five days ago, a nationwide shortage of Progesterone was reported. Among many other more traditional uses, this medication is used by transgender individuals to level out mood changes during their process. More strategically, this could be nothing or it could be something. There's no indication at all that the two shooters in California were affected by this drug, and there is no evidence linking this attack to any drug shortage as drug shortages happen all of the time for varying reasons. However, copycat incidents are an extreme risk in the wake of attacks like this, and a drug which is intended to affect mood changes among this population is in short supply. Again, this might be a loose correlation at best, but it's worth being aware of when trying to calculate the risk of future copycat attacks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z May 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CRIME AND SHOOTING SPREES RUN RAMPANT IN UNITED STATES. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN ITALY. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS STRIKES REPORTED AT EMIRATI NUCLEAR FACILITY. U.S. STRIKES ISIS LEADERSHIP IN NIGERIA. FUEL CRISIS RESULTS IN SHARP INCREASE IN SHIPPING PRICES WORLDWIDE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation remains as before, with most of the focus remaining on the restriction of travel through the Strait of Hormuz. As of this morning, all diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have failed to open the Strait, and traffic remains stagnant through the waterway. A handful of tankers have transited out of the Strait via the Iranian route, but Project Freedom has not resulted in any western-aligned merchants transiting the Strait since the initial skirmishes on it's first day.
Around the region, limited targeting efforts continue to take place. Yesterday, the UAE reported drone strikes at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Three drones were detected and two were shot down, but one drone successfully stuck the compound. None of the reactors at the facility were breached, and no release of radiological material was reported.
Nigeria: Hostilities have increased sharply over the past few days, with the United States conducting several airstrikes targeting ISIS facilities. President Trump himself announced the completion of a raid targeting Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior commander within the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) insurgent group.
Analyst Comment: Prior to a few days ago, the United States was only supporting Nigeria with intelligence and surveillance assets, and not openly engaging in the war themselves, at least as far as the public is concerned. The weekend raid on an ISIS stronghold is a major escalation of US involvement in the war, even though the mission may have initially been to capture al-Minuki.
A good bit of reading between the lines is needed (along with a bit of speculation) to interpret what happened, as this announcement is different than other targeting efforts throughout the continent. The wording of all official reports implies that this was a ground operation to capture the leadership who had congregated together inside a compound. At some point, this ground operation transitioned to airstrikes taking out the target, with the High-Value Targets (HVTs) being killed during the strike. Speculating a bit, it's possible that when the ground force experienced significant resistance and everyone scattered from the meeting site on motorcycles, the US bombed the building and got al-Minuki by happenstance. This is a tale as old as time in the targeting world (especially in Africa), and aligns with the previous strikes within Sokoto, which targeted senior ISIS leadership in the same area back in December.
Italy: Over the weekend a vehicle ramming attack was reported in Modena, as a terrorist rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people on Via Emilia Centro, a historic street in the center of town. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, with 4x victims remaining hospitalized in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Salim El Koudri, and local authorities have not commented on motive.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Over the weekend a shooting spree was reported in Austin, as three suspects conducted approximately 12x small arms attacks around the city. The incident began Saturday with the theft of firearms from a local store, and also the theft of a vehicle from an apartment complex in north Austin. From there, the suspects conducted a joyride around the city, shooting at random citizens. One of the first targets was Fire Station 26 on Wentworth Drive, along with Fire Station 32 near Rollingwood. Throughout the city, over 20x different shooting calls were reported, with over 12x different shooting victims resulting from the shooting spree.
At some point during the series of attacks from Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, police made the connection that all of these attacks were related and involved the same suspects. A BOLO notice was put out by Austin PD, which was picked up by Manor Police Department, with one patrol officer visually observing the vehicle as the BOLO was put out on the radio. This immediately turned into a pursuit, with the suspects eventually crashing in a muddy field on state road 973, near a residential area in Manor. After the pursuit ended, the occupants of the vehicle scattered, and a large shelter-in-place order was issued while the manhunt was conducted to find the suspects. Two of the suspected shooters were captured immediately, a 17 year old and a 15 year old, both of which have long criminal records. A third suspect remained at large until nightfall, when he was discovered and arrested.
California: This afternoon, an active shooter incident was reported at the Islamic Center of San Diego.
Analyst Comment: No word yet on casualties or any other details yet as this is a developing situation. However, a media helicopter captured a video of a very clearly deceased individual located at the front entrance to the facility, so at least one person (possibly the shooter) was killed during the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the world, fuel prices remain a growing concern. Over the past few days, sharp increases in the price of freight has been observed as the cost of diesel makes it more expensive to move cargo within the homeland. At the national level, the LMI Transportation index indicates that freight costs are the highest in recent memory, with the latest numbers for April being released and confirming what we already know...moving cargo is now extremely expensive.
At the more operational level, this sharp increase in shipping costs can be seen with the price of moving a standard Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) shipping container. Before the war began, this container (on average) cost $980 to ship from China, to the Middle East (via the Red Sea route, not through the Strait of Hormuz). Right now, this same container costs about $4,131 to ship along the same route. During the COVID era, the maximum price observed was about $3,900 so as it stands, the oil shock has already impacted shipping costs more than COVID did. These costs are being observed right now within the United States both in terms of goods rising in price, but also availability.
Throughout the Middle East, lots of talk continues and there isn't really any indicator for when this crisis might end. This afternoon, President Trump stated that the large-scale bombing of Iran was scheduled to continue tomorrow, but he has decided to hold off on the resumption of the war while a negotiated settlement is allegedly imminent. At the moment, it's not clear as to if this is just diplomatic posturing, or a genuine diplomatic effort. This exact situation was also alleged during the halt to Project Freedom, which stopped after one day due to a settlement that never came. In this case, this could be a negotiating tactic, but overall the war is certainly not over, and the effects of the war (i.e. the global petroleum crisis) remain largely unmitigated.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CRIME AND SHOOTING SPREES RUN RAMPANT IN UNITED STATES. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN ITALY. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS STRIKES REPORTED AT EMIRATI NUCLEAR FACILITY. U.S. STRIKES ISIS LEADERSHIP IN NIGERIA. FUEL CRISIS RESULTS IN SHARP INCREASE IN SHIPPING PRICES WORLDWIDE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation remains as before, with most of the focus remaining on the restriction of travel through the Strait of Hormuz. As of this morning, all diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have failed to open the Strait, and traffic remains stagnant through the waterway. A handful of tankers have transited out of the Strait via the Iranian route, but Project Freedom has not resulted in any western-aligned merchants transiting the Strait since the initial skirmishes on it's first day.
Around the region, limited targeting efforts continue to take place. Yesterday, the UAE reported drone strikes at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Three drones were detected and two were shot down, but one drone successfully stuck the compound. None of the reactors at the facility were breached, and no release of radiological material was reported.
Nigeria: Hostilities have increased sharply over the past few days, with the United States conducting several airstrikes targeting ISIS facilities. President Trump himself announced the completion of a raid targeting Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a senior commander within the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) insurgent group.
Analyst Comment: Prior to a few days ago, the United States was only supporting Nigeria with intelligence and surveillance assets, and not openly engaging in the war themselves, at least as far as the public is concerned. The weekend raid on an ISIS stronghold is a major escalation of US involvement in the war, even though the mission may have initially been to capture al-Minuki.
A good bit of reading between the lines is needed (along with a bit of speculation) to interpret what happened, as this announcement is different than other targeting efforts throughout the continent. The wording of all official reports implies that this was a ground operation to capture the leadership who had congregated together inside a compound. At some point, this ground operation transitioned to airstrikes taking out the target, with the High-Value Targets (HVTs) being killed during the strike. Speculating a bit, it's possible that when the ground force experienced significant resistance and everyone scattered from the meeting site on motorcycles, the US bombed the building and got al-Minuki by happenstance. This is a tale as old as time in the targeting world (especially in Africa), and aligns with the previous strikes within Sokoto, which targeted senior ISIS leadership in the same area back in December.
Italy: Over the weekend a vehicle ramming attack was reported in Modena, as a terrorist rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people on Via Emilia Centro, a historic street in the center of town. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, with 4x victims remaining hospitalized in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Salim El Koudri, and local authorities have not commented on motive.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Over the weekend a shooting spree was reported in Austin, as three suspects conducted approximately 12x small arms attacks around the city. The incident began Saturday with the theft of firearms from a local store, and also the theft of a vehicle from an apartment complex in north Austin. From there, the suspects conducted a joyride around the city, shooting at random citizens. One of the first targets was Fire Station 26 on Wentworth Drive, along with Fire Station 32 near Rollingwood. Throughout the city, over 20x different shooting calls were reported, with over 12x different shooting victims resulting from the shooting spree.
At some point during the series of attacks from Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, police made the connection that all of these attacks were related and involved the same suspects. A BOLO notice was put out by Austin PD, which was picked up by Manor Police Department, with one patrol officer visually observing the vehicle as the BOLO was put out on the radio. This immediately turned into a pursuit, with the suspects eventually crashing in a muddy field on state road 973, near a residential area in Manor. After the pursuit ended, the occupants of the vehicle scattered, and a large shelter-in-place order was issued while the manhunt was conducted to find the suspects. Two of the suspected shooters were captured immediately, a 17 year old and a 15 year old, both of which have long criminal records. A third suspect remained at large until nightfall, when he was discovered and arrested.
California: This afternoon, an active shooter incident was reported at the Islamic Center of San Diego.
Analyst Comment: No word yet on casualties or any other details yet as this is a developing situation. However, a media helicopter captured a video of a very clearly deceased individual located at the front entrance to the facility, so at least one person (possibly the shooter) was killed during the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the world, fuel prices remain a growing concern. Over the past few days, sharp increases in the price of freight has been observed as the cost of diesel makes it more expensive to move cargo within the homeland. At the national level, the LMI Transportation index indicates that freight costs are the highest in recent memory, with the latest numbers for April being released and confirming what we already know...moving cargo is now extremely expensive.
At the more operational level, this sharp increase in shipping costs can be seen with the price of moving a standard Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) shipping container. Before the war began, this container (on average) cost $980 to ship from China, to the Middle East (via the Red Sea route, not through the Strait of Hormuz). Right now, this same container costs about $4,131 to ship along the same route. During the COVID era, the maximum price observed was about $3,900 so as it stands, the oil shock has already impacted shipping costs more than COVID did. These costs are being observed right now within the United States both in terms of goods rising in price, but also availability.
Throughout the Middle East, lots of talk continues and there isn't really any indicator for when this crisis might end. This afternoon, President Trump stated that the large-scale bombing of Iran was scheduled to continue tomorrow, but he has decided to hold off on the resumption of the war while a negotiated settlement is allegedly imminent. At the moment, it's not clear as to if this is just diplomatic posturing, or a genuine diplomatic effort. This exact situation was also alleged during the halt to Project Freedom, which stopped after one day due to a settlement that never came. In this case, this could be a negotiating tactic, but overall the war is certainly not over, and the effects of the war (i.e. the global petroleum crisis) remain largely unmitigated.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out, quite a spicy week with a lot of tensions continuing to rise all around. From supply shortages and violence in the homeland, to cultural clashes overseas, it's shaping up to be a rather busy summer. Link: https://youtu.be/DeO5WEaw2ns
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