@S2Underground
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Recent Notes
//The Wire//2300Z April 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized.
Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided.
Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week.
Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress.
Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war.
On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized.
Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided.
Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week.
Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress.
Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war.
On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship.
United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing".
Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed.
Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at Teotihuacán, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident.
North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 20% of the global petroleum supply is offline, and has been unavailable since this war began. 40% of the world's petrochemical supply is similarly impacted for the same reasons. The IEA states that the continent of Europe has about 5 weeks of aviation fuel left (at current consumption rates) because roughly 75% of all of the jet fuel in Europe comes from regions of the Middle East that are now cut off. Regardless of rhetoric on social media intended to calm markets, sooner or later the lack of a physical product being delivered out of the region is going to have real-world impacts that are impossible to ignore.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship.
United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing".
Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed.
Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at Teotihuacán, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident.
North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 20% of the global petroleum supply is offline, and has been unavailable since this war began. 40% of the world's petrochemical supply is similarly impacted for the same reasons. The IEA states that the continent of Europe has about 5 weeks of aviation fuel left (at current consumption rates) because roughly 75% of all of the jet fuel in Europe comes from regions of the Middle East that are now cut off. Regardless of rhetoric on social media intended to calm markets, sooner or later the lack of a physical product being delivered out of the region is going to have real-world impacts that are impossible to ignore.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".
Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.
United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.
Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.
As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before.
However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".
Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.
United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.
Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.
As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before.
However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
//The Wire//2300Z April 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR ESCALATIONS REPORTED IN MIDDLE EAST AFTER PEACE TALKS FAIL. AMERICAN NAVAL BLOCKADE ANNOUNCED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN ALGERIA DURING POPE'S VISIT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Over the weekend, negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to produce any sort of agreement. Both parties have returned to their respective countries, and the potential for future negotiations remains unclear. Shortly after negotiations concluded, President Trump announced the implementation of a naval blockade of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The post specifically stated that the U.S. Navy will blockade "any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz". A few hours later, CENTCOM posted an article on the implementation of this policy, stating that "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman".
Lebanon: The war continues as Israeli forces continue their advance to the Litani River. Clearance operations have been on going in the south, with most villages within a few miles of the traditional border between Lebanon and Israel having been either bombed or bulldozed over the past few years with the goal of establishing a buffer zone.
Hungary: Yesterday, the results of the general election resulted in sitting Prime Minister Viktor Orban being replaced by Peter Magyar after holding power for 16 years.
Algeria: This morning two IED attacks took place in Blida, which took the form of two assailants wearing explosive belts attempting to target a crowd near the National Police Headquarters.
Analyst Comment: These attacks coincided with Pope Leo XIV's visit to Algiers. Consequently, local media is speculating that these attackers were on their way to target the Pope, and got discovered, prompting their detonation. However, considering that the attackers were on foot at the time (and Blida is a long way from Algiers, where the Pope was located), a more likely theory is that this attack was targeting the police station. This theory is supported by the rather graphic video of at least one of the attacks. These types of attacks are extremely common throughout the third-world, as low-level insurgent groups sometimes prefer to conduct attacks during a high-profile visit, so as to amplify the message of their cause. In this case however, nobody survived to convey what group actually conducted the attack, so pending a group claiming credit, the overall motive for this terror attack remains unknown.
Eastern Pacific: Overnight strikes on narco-vessels continued throughout the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility, with multiple airstrikes being reported in the general vicinity of the Caribbean.
Analyst Comment: While attention has been diverted to the Middle East, Operation Southern Spear has been continuing, with strikes on fastboats being reported regularly this entire time. Most of the more recent strikes have been conducted not in the Caribbean specifically, but in undisclosed regions of the Pacific Ocean (probably off the coast of Ecuador, where joint American operations have been increasing over the past few weeks).
-HomeFront-
New York: A mass stabbing attack was reported at the Grand Central Terminal subway station on Saturday, after an assailant began attacking a crowd of people on the platform. Police officers on the platform shot and killed the assailant immediately after the attack began. Concerning casualties, 3x elderly victims were wounded during the attack and all are expected to survive. The assailant has been identified as Anthony Griffin, and a family friend stated that Griffin was known to have mental health issues and that he was known to carry a machete.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Blockading ships from only Iranian ports is quite different from the White House's statements of "any and all ships", and as a result, the implementation of the blockade in the Middle East is extremely significant. If the U.S. does intend to halt "all" traffic through the Strait, half of the planet will be in a bind. If the U.S. is only targeting Iranian ships (or ships exporting cargo from Iranian ports), this would make sense except for the U.S. lifting sanctions on the Iranian oil market a few weeks ago. As of today, no one has really addressed this prior lifting of sanctions, and it is not clear as to which policy supersedes the other. At this juncture, there is no word on how this is going to work out, because on the one hand the U.S. has told Iran that they can export oil to the global market, but at the same time they are being told that their ships will be interdicted, and sunk if necessary. Clarifications may come in due time (or they might not), but at the moment the announcement of a naval blockade of any kind probably won't do very much to alleviate concerns among maritime insurance companies. Companies were already concerned about the Iranian blockade, but now merchant shippers have to be concerned about the U.S. Navy interdicting them as well, especially since there are differences in the terms laid out by President Trump and CENTCOM regarding what ships are being allowed through. Bottom line, the war is not over, and the concerns that have been in place since the start of the war, still remain in place.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR ESCALATIONS REPORTED IN MIDDLE EAST AFTER PEACE TALKS FAIL. AMERICAN NAVAL BLOCKADE ANNOUNCED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN ALGERIA DURING POPE'S VISIT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Over the weekend, negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to produce any sort of agreement. Both parties have returned to their respective countries, and the potential for future negotiations remains unclear. Shortly after negotiations concluded, President Trump announced the implementation of a naval blockade of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The post specifically stated that the U.S. Navy will blockade "any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz". A few hours later, CENTCOM posted an article on the implementation of this policy, stating that "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman".
Lebanon: The war continues as Israeli forces continue their advance to the Litani River. Clearance operations have been on going in the south, with most villages within a few miles of the traditional border between Lebanon and Israel having been either bombed or bulldozed over the past few years with the goal of establishing a buffer zone.
Hungary: Yesterday, the results of the general election resulted in sitting Prime Minister Viktor Orban being replaced by Peter Magyar after holding power for 16 years.
Algeria: This morning two IED attacks took place in Blida, which took the form of two assailants wearing explosive belts attempting to target a crowd near the National Police Headquarters.
Analyst Comment: These attacks coincided with Pope Leo XIV's visit to Algiers. Consequently, local media is speculating that these attackers were on their way to target the Pope, and got discovered, prompting their detonation. However, considering that the attackers were on foot at the time (and Blida is a long way from Algiers, where the Pope was located), a more likely theory is that this attack was targeting the police station. This theory is supported by the rather graphic video of at least one of the attacks. These types of attacks are extremely common throughout the third-world, as low-level insurgent groups sometimes prefer to conduct attacks during a high-profile visit, so as to amplify the message of their cause. In this case however, nobody survived to convey what group actually conducted the attack, so pending a group claiming credit, the overall motive for this terror attack remains unknown.
Eastern Pacific: Overnight strikes on narco-vessels continued throughout the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility, with multiple airstrikes being reported in the general vicinity of the Caribbean.
Analyst Comment: While attention has been diverted to the Middle East, Operation Southern Spear has been continuing, with strikes on fastboats being reported regularly this entire time. Most of the more recent strikes have been conducted not in the Caribbean specifically, but in undisclosed regions of the Pacific Ocean (probably off the coast of Ecuador, where joint American operations have been increasing over the past few weeks).
-HomeFront-
New York: A mass stabbing attack was reported at the Grand Central Terminal subway station on Saturday, after an assailant began attacking a crowd of people on the platform. Police officers on the platform shot and killed the assailant immediately after the attack began. Concerning casualties, 3x elderly victims were wounded during the attack and all are expected to survive. The assailant has been identified as Anthony Griffin, and a family friend stated that Griffin was known to have mental health issues and that he was known to carry a machete.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Blockading ships from only Iranian ports is quite different from the White House's statements of "any and all ships", and as a result, the implementation of the blockade in the Middle East is extremely significant. If the U.S. does intend to halt "all" traffic through the Strait, half of the planet will be in a bind. If the U.S. is only targeting Iranian ships (or ships exporting cargo from Iranian ports), this would make sense except for the U.S. lifting sanctions on the Iranian oil market a few weeks ago. As of today, no one has really addressed this prior lifting of sanctions, and it is not clear as to which policy supersedes the other. At this juncture, there is no word on how this is going to work out, because on the one hand the U.S. has told Iran that they can export oil to the global market, but at the same time they are being told that their ships will be interdicted, and sunk if necessary. Clarifications may come in due time (or they might not), but at the moment the announcement of a naval blockade of any kind probably won't do very much to alleviate concerns among maritime insurance companies. Companies were already concerned about the Iranian blockade, but now merchant shippers have to be concerned about the U.S. Navy interdicting them as well, especially since there are differences in the terms laid out by President Trump and CENTCOM regarding what ships are being allowed through. Bottom line, the war is not over, and the concerns that have been in place since the start of the war, still remain in place.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1❤️1😎1
This week's intel update is out! This week we have a very tepid "pause" to the fight in the Middle East, while all sides rearm and resupply as fast as possible just in case peace is not on the menu. Meanwhile, crime season is well under way in the United States, with many serious and violent incidents taking place over the past week. https://youtu.be/xp97P852sEE
❤️2
//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.
Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.
Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.
Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.
Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.
Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.
Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
2❤️1
//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.
Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.
Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.
Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.
Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.
Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.
Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
❤️1
//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CONTINUES. MERCHANT VESSELS HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AT LEAST ONE VESSEL TURNED AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CALIFORNIA ARSON SUSPECT IDENTIFIED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: Overnight several attacks were conducted between Iran and Israel, with Israeli forces continuing their attacks throughout the evening. Separately, the oil refinery on Lavan Island was struck by the UAE, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on their oil fields yesterday.
Middle East: Iranian attacks continued as before, with an observable lull (but not complete halt) to attacks being observed after the ceasefire went into effect. In Kuwait, government officials confirmed that attacks continued, with 28x drones being intercepted by air defense systems. In the UAE, authorities likewise announced the interception of 17x ballistic missiles and 35x drones.
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Israeli forces ordering the evacuation of areas north of the Litani River. Substantial airstrikes were reported throughout Beirut this afternoon as Israeli forces carry out their largest bombing campaign of the war.
-HomeFront-
California: The suspect in yesterday's arson attack at a warehouse in Ontario has been identified as Chamel Abdulkarim. The suspect was arrested at the scene after livestreaming himself setting fire to multiple pallets of paper products at this warehouse.
Analyst Comment: In the video posted to his social media page under his real name, Abdulkarim stated that the arson was conducted in order to destroy the inventory of the company that was not paying him enough. Abdulkarim was an employee of NFI Industries, a third-party distributor for Kimberly-Clark, who owned the warehouse.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, much confusion remains regarding the exact details of what the ceasefire agreement actually means. A ceasefire is temporary, not a permanent settlement to a conflict, and this ceasefire has a two week suspension time. In 13 days, the war is scheduled to resume if an agreement cannot be reached, according to the statements made by both the United States and Iran. This ceasefire is also conditional on several points (which remain unclear) and the entire agreement depends on further negotiations.
Following the intensification of the conflict in Lebanon, Iran has linked their participation in the ceasefire to the fate of Lebanon (as in, the ceasefire is off if Israeli forces continue their advance in Lebanon). Concerning shipping throughout the Strait, this morning all commercial vessels transiting the Strait have continued to use the Larak Island tollbooth arrangement, and have only transited the waterway with Iranian permission. This afternoon one vessel, the M/T AUROURA attempted to transit the Strait, but turned around upon reaching the chokepoint. The reason for this turnaround is not known, however it is likely that Iranian forces are only allowing traffic through that has prior approval.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CONTINUES. MERCHANT VESSELS HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AT LEAST ONE VESSEL TURNED AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CALIFORNIA ARSON SUSPECT IDENTIFIED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: Overnight several attacks were conducted between Iran and Israel, with Israeli forces continuing their attacks throughout the evening. Separately, the oil refinery on Lavan Island was struck by the UAE, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on their oil fields yesterday.
Middle East: Iranian attacks continued as before, with an observable lull (but not complete halt) to attacks being observed after the ceasefire went into effect. In Kuwait, government officials confirmed that attacks continued, with 28x drones being intercepted by air defense systems. In the UAE, authorities likewise announced the interception of 17x ballistic missiles and 35x drones.
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Israeli forces ordering the evacuation of areas north of the Litani River. Substantial airstrikes were reported throughout Beirut this afternoon as Israeli forces carry out their largest bombing campaign of the war.
-HomeFront-
California: The suspect in yesterday's arson attack at a warehouse in Ontario has been identified as Chamel Abdulkarim. The suspect was arrested at the scene after livestreaming himself setting fire to multiple pallets of paper products at this warehouse.
Analyst Comment: In the video posted to his social media page under his real name, Abdulkarim stated that the arson was conducted in order to destroy the inventory of the company that was not paying him enough. Abdulkarim was an employee of NFI Industries, a third-party distributor for Kimberly-Clark, who owned the warehouse.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, much confusion remains regarding the exact details of what the ceasefire agreement actually means. A ceasefire is temporary, not a permanent settlement to a conflict, and this ceasefire has a two week suspension time. In 13 days, the war is scheduled to resume if an agreement cannot be reached, according to the statements made by both the United States and Iran. This ceasefire is also conditional on several points (which remain unclear) and the entire agreement depends on further negotiations.
Following the intensification of the conflict in Lebanon, Iran has linked their participation in the ceasefire to the fate of Lebanon (as in, the ceasefire is off if Israeli forces continue their advance in Lebanon). Concerning shipping throughout the Strait, this morning all commercial vessels transiting the Strait have continued to use the Larak Island tollbooth arrangement, and have only transited the waterway with Iranian permission. This afternoon one vessel, the M/T AUROURA attempted to transit the Strait, but turned around upon reaching the chokepoint. The reason for this turnaround is not known, however it is likely that Iranian forces are only allowing traffic through that has prior approval.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.
Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.
Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.
In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.
Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".
Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:
General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.
As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.
Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.
Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.
In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.
Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".
Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:
General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.
As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
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//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.
Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.
Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.
Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.
Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.
This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.
This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.
Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.
Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.
Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.
Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.
This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.
This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
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//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.
Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.
The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.
Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.
Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.
Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.
The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.
Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.
Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
😎1🤘1
//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.
Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.
Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.
Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.
Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.
Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.
Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
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