@S2Underground
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Recent Notes
//The Wire//2300Z August 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES DEVASTATE TIBET AND NEPAL. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE FOLLOWING CIA DIRECTOR VISIT TO RUSSIA. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN AUSTRALIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The war remains constant as Ukraine and Russia continue their targeting efforts. Overnight, Ukraine continued their strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, targeting the Lukoil Refinery in Kstovo. Similarly, Russia has continued striking gas stations within Ukraine. Both sides have also continued strikes on each others consumer industry, with Ukraine hitting Wildberries and Ozon warehouses, and Russia hitting shopping malls in Ukraine.
Western Asia: This morning a major mudslide was reported in Tibet, after flash flooding throughout the region caused instability in the terrain. The small Himalayan town of Gyirong was nearly completely destroyed by mudslides, along with many other mountain villages.
Analyst Comment: As this disaster took place mostly in Tibet, the administration of recovery efforts is complicated. China is the most capable entity in the general region, and has mobilized around a hundred soldiers that were already at the far-flung outposts on the border of the autonomous region. Chinese authorities have stated that this is a mass casualty event, and video footage of the mudslides confirm several dozen fatalities outright, with potentially hundreds of people being killed by the disaster.
Australia: Yesterday afternoon, a stabbing attack was reported in Melbourne, after an African man attacked a 10-year-old boy randomly on the street directly outside the main entrance of the Victoria Police Headquarters. After attacking the child, the assailant stabbed the boy's mother with a pair of scissors. Several bystanders immediately counterattacked the assailant, subduing him while police responded from their headquarters building. The assailant has been identified as Jerry Sowood, a Liberian man who proudly confessed to the crime in court shortly after his arrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Strategic indications and warnings keep stacking up concerning American and Russian military assets, though right now it's not entirely clear what it all means. Shortly after Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow, a total of 5x E6-B MERCURY TACEMO aircraft took off and flew patterns over the American interior all at roughly the same time. This has happened a few times before during exercises, but it's not that common to see this many strategic communication aircraft airborne at the same time. This morning, a strategic Russian radio station was active again, repeating several coded messages for unknown recipients on 5135 kHz. This frequency has occasionally been used by strategic Russian assets in the past, and starting about two weeks ago this frequency began being used more frequently. Normally, messages that begin with the prefix DMITRI are higher priority messages, or at least that's a common theory among shortwave listeners. These transmissions repeated throughout the day, mostly conveying the same coded message.
Normally, the movement of strategic aircraft or cryptic radio messages can't be pinned down to a singular event or cause, and the entire purpose of the whole strategic readiness posture is to make an exercise indistinguishable from a real-world event. However, when we add up the events of the past 48 hours, the situation is revealed to be more interesting than at face value. In isolation, an interesting plane flying around or a random radio message is not worthy of mention, but in aggregate these events become vastly more interesting, even though it's impossible to know why.
More broadly, the very minute details and observances by planewatchers, shortwave listeners, and hobbyists alike are extremely early indicators of some kind of strategic event. These observances are at the very bleeding edge of what is possible to perceive within the open source world, and must be weighted accordingly. It is impossible to make decisions based on so little data, so right now all of this is just evidence supporting the hunch that strategic moves are being made. The CIA Director flying to Moscow at the same time 5x "Doomsday" communications planes are active in the US, and the Russians are more active on their own strategic radio frequencies...is all extremely coincidental to be nothing. Much more analysis will be needed to maybe determine what's going on but as it stands, high-level diplomatic and strategic moves continue behind the scenes, as both the war in Ukraine and Iran remain in the balance.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES DEVASTATE TIBET AND NEPAL. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE FOLLOWING CIA DIRECTOR VISIT TO RUSSIA. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN AUSTRALIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The war remains constant as Ukraine and Russia continue their targeting efforts. Overnight, Ukraine continued their strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, targeting the Lukoil Refinery in Kstovo. Similarly, Russia has continued striking gas stations within Ukraine. Both sides have also continued strikes on each others consumer industry, with Ukraine hitting Wildberries and Ozon warehouses, and Russia hitting shopping malls in Ukraine.
Western Asia: This morning a major mudslide was reported in Tibet, after flash flooding throughout the region caused instability in the terrain. The small Himalayan town of Gyirong was nearly completely destroyed by mudslides, along with many other mountain villages.
Analyst Comment: As this disaster took place mostly in Tibet, the administration of recovery efforts is complicated. China is the most capable entity in the general region, and has mobilized around a hundred soldiers that were already at the far-flung outposts on the border of the autonomous region. Chinese authorities have stated that this is a mass casualty event, and video footage of the mudslides confirm several dozen fatalities outright, with potentially hundreds of people being killed by the disaster.
Australia: Yesterday afternoon, a stabbing attack was reported in Melbourne, after an African man attacked a 10-year-old boy randomly on the street directly outside the main entrance of the Victoria Police Headquarters. After attacking the child, the assailant stabbed the boy's mother with a pair of scissors. Several bystanders immediately counterattacked the assailant, subduing him while police responded from their headquarters building. The assailant has been identified as Jerry Sowood, a Liberian man who proudly confessed to the crime in court shortly after his arrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Strategic indications and warnings keep stacking up concerning American and Russian military assets, though right now it's not entirely clear what it all means. Shortly after Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow, a total of 5x E6-B MERCURY TACEMO aircraft took off and flew patterns over the American interior all at roughly the same time. This has happened a few times before during exercises, but it's not that common to see this many strategic communication aircraft airborne at the same time. This morning, a strategic Russian radio station was active again, repeating several coded messages for unknown recipients on 5135 kHz. This frequency has occasionally been used by strategic Russian assets in the past, and starting about two weeks ago this frequency began being used more frequently. Normally, messages that begin with the prefix DMITRI are higher priority messages, or at least that's a common theory among shortwave listeners. These transmissions repeated throughout the day, mostly conveying the same coded message.
Normally, the movement of strategic aircraft or cryptic radio messages can't be pinned down to a singular event or cause, and the entire purpose of the whole strategic readiness posture is to make an exercise indistinguishable from a real-world event. However, when we add up the events of the past 48 hours, the situation is revealed to be more interesting than at face value. In isolation, an interesting plane flying around or a random radio message is not worthy of mention, but in aggregate these events become vastly more interesting, even though it's impossible to know why.
More broadly, the very minute details and observances by planewatchers, shortwave listeners, and hobbyists alike are extremely early indicators of some kind of strategic event. These observances are at the very bleeding edge of what is possible to perceive within the open source world, and must be weighted accordingly. It is impossible to make decisions based on so little data, so right now all of this is just evidence supporting the hunch that strategic moves are being made. The CIA Director flying to Moscow at the same time 5x "Doomsday" communications planes are active in the US, and the Russians are more active on their own strategic radio frequencies...is all extremely coincidental to be nothing. Much more analysis will be needed to maybe determine what's going on but as it stands, high-level diplomatic and strategic moves continue behind the scenes, as both the war in Ukraine and Iran remain in the balance.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1❤️1
This week's intel update is out 👍 This week, fake incidents and genuine threats alike remained at the forefront of homeland concerns, with the slowly tightening grip on societal freedoms creating even more risks and vulnerabilities in the long run. https://youtu.be/4JWYaCTPbGw
1❤️2
//The Wire//2300Z August 4, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE IN KUWAIT AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TURKISH MERCHANTS STRUCK BY UKRAINIAN DRONES IN BLACK SEA. WILDFIRE RESPONSE CONTINUES IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ARSON REMAINS A CONCERN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning Iranian attacks continued in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting more vessels which have attempted to transit via the unauthorized southern route. Around the region, Iranian forces targeted American installations in Kuwait overnight, with locals reporting large fires allegedly in the vicinity of Camp Buehring.
Analyst Comment: This is the first round of strikes that was not explicitly tied to the tit-for-tat American strikes, and this is one of the few times the Iranians have launched an attack during this war, that was not purely retaliatory. This is the latest indicator that the Iranians are becoming increasingly less likely to allow the United States to conduct strikes, and then let the markets cool off by the time the opening bell rings. Conducting strikes on their own terms and timing, is likely a tactic Iran will continue to exercise while the United States tries to buy more time to figure out how to win the war.
Europe: The war in Ukraine has remained hot on multiple fronts as attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea continue to involve more third-party nations. This morning, Ukrainian drones targeted the M/V *NADEZHDA* (IMO: 7702657) just off the coast of Novorossiysk. This vessel is a Roll-on, Roll-Off (RoRo) vehicle transportation vessel, and was owned and operated by Turkey, with a mostly Turkish crew. In addition to this strike, another vessel was also struck in the same general area. The M/V *YASAR* (IMO: 9276341), a smaller regional containership was struck at roughly the same time as the *NADEZHDA*. Both vessels had recently departed port Novorossiysk before being struck.
Analyst Comment: So far, Turkish authorities have played their hand very carefully, and there haven't been any public statements indicating how serious they are treating these strikes. The Turks have called on both Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, which is exactly the kind of milquetoast statement that would be expected for a NATO member which also buys a lot of Russian military hardware. Nevertheless, this duality of defense is only going to last for so long, especially if this war expands to include the deaths of Turkish civilians onboard Turkish civilian ships.
-HomeFront-
Pacific Northwest: Wildfire concerns remain paramount as disaster recovery efforts continue in Washington state. Spokane is the biggest urban interface affected by the wildfires, and many suburbs and surrounding towns have burned completely to the ground. The National Interagency Fire Center status report for this morning stated that the three main wildfires burning in the Spokane area are still zero-percent contained, though major gains were made in combatting two of the fires threatening local homes in the suburbs. So far, most of the firefighting efforts have prioritized immediate risk to life within the residential areas of the city, in addition to aiding evacuation efforts for much of the population.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In eastern Washington, weather is going to play a factor over the next few days and the region at large is not out of the woods just yet. The National Weather Service Fire weather update from this morning indicated light and variable winds forecasted for tonight, increasing tomorrow. Temperatures today were a bit cooler, but temps are expected to rise (and humidity expected to drop) ever further tomorrow, as winds begin to rise. This afternoon's weather forecast continued to indicate increasing winds of over 20mph are likely throughout central and eastern Washington on Friday and Saturday. As a result, fire behavior conditions can change quickly, and increased situational awareness is vital while the crisis continues. This is especially important considering the origin of the fires. At least one arrest has been made due to at least some of these fires being arson, and the risk of continued malign action is likely while these weather patterns continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE IN KUWAIT AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TURKISH MERCHANTS STRUCK BY UKRAINIAN DRONES IN BLACK SEA. WILDFIRE RESPONSE CONTINUES IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ARSON REMAINS A CONCERN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning Iranian attacks continued in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting more vessels which have attempted to transit via the unauthorized southern route. Around the region, Iranian forces targeted American installations in Kuwait overnight, with locals reporting large fires allegedly in the vicinity of Camp Buehring.
Analyst Comment: This is the first round of strikes that was not explicitly tied to the tit-for-tat American strikes, and this is one of the few times the Iranians have launched an attack during this war, that was not purely retaliatory. This is the latest indicator that the Iranians are becoming increasingly less likely to allow the United States to conduct strikes, and then let the markets cool off by the time the opening bell rings. Conducting strikes on their own terms and timing, is likely a tactic Iran will continue to exercise while the United States tries to buy more time to figure out how to win the war.
Europe: The war in Ukraine has remained hot on multiple fronts as attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea continue to involve more third-party nations. This morning, Ukrainian drones targeted the M/V *NADEZHDA* (IMO: 7702657) just off the coast of Novorossiysk. This vessel is a Roll-on, Roll-Off (RoRo) vehicle transportation vessel, and was owned and operated by Turkey, with a mostly Turkish crew. In addition to this strike, another vessel was also struck in the same general area. The M/V *YASAR* (IMO: 9276341), a smaller regional containership was struck at roughly the same time as the *NADEZHDA*. Both vessels had recently departed port Novorossiysk before being struck.
Analyst Comment: So far, Turkish authorities have played their hand very carefully, and there haven't been any public statements indicating how serious they are treating these strikes. The Turks have called on both Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, which is exactly the kind of milquetoast statement that would be expected for a NATO member which also buys a lot of Russian military hardware. Nevertheless, this duality of defense is only going to last for so long, especially if this war expands to include the deaths of Turkish civilians onboard Turkish civilian ships.
-HomeFront-
Pacific Northwest: Wildfire concerns remain paramount as disaster recovery efforts continue in Washington state. Spokane is the biggest urban interface affected by the wildfires, and many suburbs and surrounding towns have burned completely to the ground. The National Interagency Fire Center status report for this morning stated that the three main wildfires burning in the Spokane area are still zero-percent contained, though major gains were made in combatting two of the fires threatening local homes in the suburbs. So far, most of the firefighting efforts have prioritized immediate risk to life within the residential areas of the city, in addition to aiding evacuation efforts for much of the population.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In eastern Washington, weather is going to play a factor over the next few days and the region at large is not out of the woods just yet. The National Weather Service Fire weather update from this morning indicated light and variable winds forecasted for tonight, increasing tomorrow. Temperatures today were a bit cooler, but temps are expected to rise (and humidity expected to drop) ever further tomorrow, as winds begin to rise. This afternoon's weather forecast continued to indicate increasing winds of over 20mph are likely throughout central and eastern Washington on Friday and Saturday. As a result, fire behavior conditions can change quickly, and increased situational awareness is vital while the crisis continues. This is especially important considering the origin of the fires. At least one arrest has been made due to at least some of these fires being arson, and the risk of continued malign action is likely while these weather patterns continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
This week's Intel Update is out! This week has seen a resurgence of many conflicts around the world, as the fate of both Ukraine and the Middle East hang in the balance and both wars heat up. Link below! https://youtu.be/e8eZKQsQyyY
1
//The Wire//2300Z June 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN MONTREAL AS SHOOTER CONDUCTS MULTIPLE ENGAGEMENTS THROUGHOUT RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD. KEIR STARMER RESIGNS AS PRIME MINISTER. SITUATION IN LEBANON REMAINS TENUOUS AS ISRAELIS REFUSE TO HALT ATTACKS. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN SCOTLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Qatar: Last night an industrial accident was reported at one of the main natural gas terminals in Ras Laffan, which was in the process of being restarted to resume production after the war. The Qataris claim that this was not the direct result of combat action, however the incident killed a total of 13x people, and injured roughly 50x others.
United Kingdom: This morning Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister. This resignation is not immediate, and is expected to result in some form of leadership contest later on.
Analyst Comment: Andy Burnham is likely to be his replacement, but this process will take a few months to develop as the formalized party efforts to select their new PM continue over the next few weeks.
Scotland: Over the weekend a stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh. One assailant attempted to conduct a stabbing on Lieth Walk, near a row of shops and businesses. Initial reports claimed that a total of 5x people were wounded during this attack, but this remains unconfirmed at this time.
Analyst Comment: Due to the nature of the attack, the media coverage has been extensive, although very few details are known regarding how the attack began. Of note, several photos appearing to be AI-generated have circulated following this attack, so it is challenging to determine which photos are real and which are "AI-enhanced". More details will undoubtedly come in due time, which may clarify what actually happened.
Canada: This afternoon a shooting was reported in Montreal, as one assailant attempted to conduct a mass shooting in the vicinity of the Côte-des-Neiges neighborhood. One gunman equipped with an SKS-type rifle and web gear, began the attack by engaging police along one of the streets of this community. Eventually, this skirmish transitioned to the Westbury Supermarche PA at the north end of Av. de Courtrai, with the shooter taking up a position inside the supermarket. As police advanced on this location and began breaching the supermarket, the shooter egressed two blocks to the southwest, where the shooter made contact with the police cordon at the corner of Av. de Courtrai and Decarie Boulevard. At this location, a close-range small arms engagement broke out between the shooter and two officers, which resulted in one officer being killed in action. During the fray, the other officer accidentally shot a bystander, who was attempting to seek cover from the shooter. After shooting the civilian, the officer broke contact and maneuvered to a different position away from the shooter, and in doing so was shot in the back. A few moments later, the shooter was neutralized by other officers who were maneuvering south down Courtrai avenue, from the grocery store.
Analyst Comment: The circumstances of how the shooting began are unclear. The initial footage of the incident begins at the grocery store, however SWAT was already chasing someone on foot in the residential neighborhood several blocks to the east of the shooting site. Also, the only victims of the shooting so far appear to be the officer that was shot by the suspect, and the civilian that was erroneously shot by police. The reasoning for why police (and especially tactical units such as SWAT) were already on the scene is possibly due to the shooter sending his manifesto to media groups before the attack began. More details are expected overnight as the shooter's identity and the sequence of events become more clear.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the status of the tentative peace deal remains uncertain, but in Switzerland, the talks appear to be continuing to some degree. The Iranian delegation did walk out after President Trump threatened to kill them during a phone interview with Fox News. Specifically President Trump threatened to kidnap/kill the negotiating team if Iran closes the Strait again in response to Israeli advances in Lebanon. Upon these remarks being broadcast, the Iranian delegation walked out of a photo op that had been planned with VP Vance, although they did not completely halt the talks.
Concerning Lebanon, PM Netanyahu has stated many times that Israeli forces will not depart Lebanon, and over the weekend the IDF continued to consolidate the gains made so far. No withdrawal of the IDF has been noted in any way, which is a non-starter the peace process, but the reason for this is probably not just about politics and attempting to assert dominance.
The tactical situation on the ground is not great and the sudden signature of the MOU (ahead of schedule) appears to have caught the IDF in a predicament. If the IDF were to halt their forward progress right now, they would be at a military disadvantage as they mostly occupy the low terrain in Tabieh, northward along the Litani River basin. The IDF has just barely gotten a foothold on the northwestern side of the Litani, infamously capturing the historic Beaufort Castle last week, which serves as the only real tactically-advantageous terrain along this eastern front. As a result, the IDF knows that they will get pounded by Hezbollah's rockets if they stay where they are, especially since they have overextended themselves to the point that a salient (or bulge in the lines) has emerged, exposing this spearhead to attacks from three sides. This vulnerability has been noted by the attack on the armored armored column a few days ago, which was advancing north in Nabatiyeh.
The IDF could of course always resolve their disadvantage in terrain by stopping their invasion of Lebanon and withdrawing to their own borders, but this is absolutely not going to happen at this point. What's far more likely is for the IDF to continue pushing until they fully seize and consolidate the high ground east of Et Taher. From there, they will be able to look down on the collection of towns that make up the greater Nabatieh area. How this will work out is anybody's guess, as the IDF is not exactly accustomed to fighting ground advances of several miles from their own borders with a serious and well-equipped adversary like Hezbollah. Bottom line: The situation in Lebanon is messy and very unlikely to be resolved anytime soon due to the military situation on the ground. As Lebanon is a central focus point for the US/Iran deal, the proverbial 'rock' has met the typical 'hard place' and this is going to be a problem for the deal moving forward.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN MONTREAL AS SHOOTER CONDUCTS MULTIPLE ENGAGEMENTS THROUGHOUT RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD. KEIR STARMER RESIGNS AS PRIME MINISTER. SITUATION IN LEBANON REMAINS TENUOUS AS ISRAELIS REFUSE TO HALT ATTACKS. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN SCOTLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Qatar: Last night an industrial accident was reported at one of the main natural gas terminals in Ras Laffan, which was in the process of being restarted to resume production after the war. The Qataris claim that this was not the direct result of combat action, however the incident killed a total of 13x people, and injured roughly 50x others.
United Kingdom: This morning Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister. This resignation is not immediate, and is expected to result in some form of leadership contest later on.
Analyst Comment: Andy Burnham is likely to be his replacement, but this process will take a few months to develop as the formalized party efforts to select their new PM continue over the next few weeks.
Scotland: Over the weekend a stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh. One assailant attempted to conduct a stabbing on Lieth Walk, near a row of shops and businesses. Initial reports claimed that a total of 5x people were wounded during this attack, but this remains unconfirmed at this time.
Analyst Comment: Due to the nature of the attack, the media coverage has been extensive, although very few details are known regarding how the attack began. Of note, several photos appearing to be AI-generated have circulated following this attack, so it is challenging to determine which photos are real and which are "AI-enhanced". More details will undoubtedly come in due time, which may clarify what actually happened.
Canada: This afternoon a shooting was reported in Montreal, as one assailant attempted to conduct a mass shooting in the vicinity of the Côte-des-Neiges neighborhood. One gunman equipped with an SKS-type rifle and web gear, began the attack by engaging police along one of the streets of this community. Eventually, this skirmish transitioned to the Westbury Supermarche PA at the north end of Av. de Courtrai, with the shooter taking up a position inside the supermarket. As police advanced on this location and began breaching the supermarket, the shooter egressed two blocks to the southwest, where the shooter made contact with the police cordon at the corner of Av. de Courtrai and Decarie Boulevard. At this location, a close-range small arms engagement broke out between the shooter and two officers, which resulted in one officer being killed in action. During the fray, the other officer accidentally shot a bystander, who was attempting to seek cover from the shooter. After shooting the civilian, the officer broke contact and maneuvered to a different position away from the shooter, and in doing so was shot in the back. A few moments later, the shooter was neutralized by other officers who were maneuvering south down Courtrai avenue, from the grocery store.
Analyst Comment: The circumstances of how the shooting began are unclear. The initial footage of the incident begins at the grocery store, however SWAT was already chasing someone on foot in the residential neighborhood several blocks to the east of the shooting site. Also, the only victims of the shooting so far appear to be the officer that was shot by the suspect, and the civilian that was erroneously shot by police. The reasoning for why police (and especially tactical units such as SWAT) were already on the scene is possibly due to the shooter sending his manifesto to media groups before the attack began. More details are expected overnight as the shooter's identity and the sequence of events become more clear.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the status of the tentative peace deal remains uncertain, but in Switzerland, the talks appear to be continuing to some degree. The Iranian delegation did walk out after President Trump threatened to kill them during a phone interview with Fox News. Specifically President Trump threatened to kidnap/kill the negotiating team if Iran closes the Strait again in response to Israeli advances in Lebanon. Upon these remarks being broadcast, the Iranian delegation walked out of a photo op that had been planned with VP Vance, although they did not completely halt the talks.
Concerning Lebanon, PM Netanyahu has stated many times that Israeli forces will not depart Lebanon, and over the weekend the IDF continued to consolidate the gains made so far. No withdrawal of the IDF has been noted in any way, which is a non-starter the peace process, but the reason for this is probably not just about politics and attempting to assert dominance.
The tactical situation on the ground is not great and the sudden signature of the MOU (ahead of schedule) appears to have caught the IDF in a predicament. If the IDF were to halt their forward progress right now, they would be at a military disadvantage as they mostly occupy the low terrain in Tabieh, northward along the Litani River basin. The IDF has just barely gotten a foothold on the northwestern side of the Litani, infamously capturing the historic Beaufort Castle last week, which serves as the only real tactically-advantageous terrain along this eastern front. As a result, the IDF knows that they will get pounded by Hezbollah's rockets if they stay where they are, especially since they have overextended themselves to the point that a salient (or bulge in the lines) has emerged, exposing this spearhead to attacks from three sides. This vulnerability has been noted by the attack on the armored armored column a few days ago, which was advancing north in Nabatiyeh.
The IDF could of course always resolve their disadvantage in terrain by stopping their invasion of Lebanon and withdrawing to their own borders, but this is absolutely not going to happen at this point. What's far more likely is for the IDF to continue pushing until they fully seize and consolidate the high ground east of Et Taher. From there, they will be able to look down on the collection of towns that make up the greater Nabatieh area. How this will work out is anybody's guess, as the IDF is not exactly accustomed to fighting ground advances of several miles from their own borders with a serious and well-equipped adversary like Hezbollah. Bottom line: The situation in Lebanon is messy and very unlikely to be resolved anytime soon due to the military situation on the ground. As Lebanon is a central focus point for the US/Iran deal, the proverbial 'rock' has met the typical 'hard place' and this is going to be a problem for the deal moving forward.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
//The Wire//2300Z May 29, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROBABLE RUSSIAN DRONE IMPACTS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ROMANIA. HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE OVER YEMEN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES ALLEGED LIFTING OF THE AMERICAN BLOCKADE IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning, President Trump made several statements in a post on his Truth Social account. Most importantly, he stated that the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted. Secondly, the chief American bargaining demands regarding a settlement to the Iran war are now the re-opening of the Strait by the Iranians, the removal of the mines, and also the promise that they won't develop nuclear weapons, among other details.
Analyst Comment: Much like previous statements, a short post on social media is not exactly the most clear format to convey all of the nuts and bolts of a potential peace deal, and it is precisely these smaller details which have derailed any agreement thus far. Time will tell how the Iranians react to this news, but if the lifting of the American blockade is indeed true (and immediate, without being contingent on some other unspoken detail), this could be the early indications of the U.S. attempting to walk away from this conflict. As always, it takes two to tango, and the Iranians are unlikely to immediately react to these claims, after being burned on the diplomatic front so many times.
Yemen: This morning Houthi forces shot down another American MQ-9 drone in the vicinity of Marib. This is the second such drone platform shot down in Yemen this month.
Romania: Last night, an apartment building in Galați was struck by an unidentified munition, resulting in a fire breaking out on the upper stories of the building. The strike resulted in two residents of the building being wounded, and the Romanian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the munition was a drone of Russian origin.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The summer fighting season in Ukraine is clearly starting to cause more problems and instability for the European continent, as demonstrated by last night's drone incident in Romania. Right now, a major Russian offensive is underway in Odessa, and fighting along most of the fronts has picked up over the past few weeks. As such, it's not a stretch to surmise that this was a drone-off-course situation as hundreds of drones were used by Russia to attack targets along the southwestern front of the war. However, this is not the first time that Romania has dealt with supposedly "off-course" drones from the war. Drone incursions in Romania have been reported several times before, with the Russian ambassador even being summoned to explain this behavior in September of last year. Additionally, Ukraine has made good use of long-range drones as well, with a total of three tanker vessels reportedly being targeted in the Black Sea just off the coast of Turkey on the same night. As these vessels are a part of Russia's shadow-fleet of sanctioned vessels, these drones were almost certainly Ukrainian, as Ukraine seeks to prevent Russia from capitalizing on the oil shock crisis currently inflating global oil prices. Bottom line, drones are filling the skies by all sides, and as technology improves collateral damage in warfare becomes much more costly, all the while the stakes increase around the world.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROBABLE RUSSIAN DRONE IMPACTS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ROMANIA. HOUTHIS SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE OVER YEMEN. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES ALLEGED LIFTING OF THE AMERICAN BLOCKADE IN MIDDLE EAST.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: This morning, President Trump made several statements in a post on his Truth Social account. Most importantly, he stated that the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted. Secondly, the chief American bargaining demands regarding a settlement to the Iran war are now the re-opening of the Strait by the Iranians, the removal of the mines, and also the promise that they won't develop nuclear weapons, among other details.
Analyst Comment: Much like previous statements, a short post on social media is not exactly the most clear format to convey all of the nuts and bolts of a potential peace deal, and it is precisely these smaller details which have derailed any agreement thus far. Time will tell how the Iranians react to this news, but if the lifting of the American blockade is indeed true (and immediate, without being contingent on some other unspoken detail), this could be the early indications of the U.S. attempting to walk away from this conflict. As always, it takes two to tango, and the Iranians are unlikely to immediately react to these claims, after being burned on the diplomatic front so many times.
Yemen: This morning Houthi forces shot down another American MQ-9 drone in the vicinity of Marib. This is the second such drone platform shot down in Yemen this month.
Romania: Last night, an apartment building in Galați was struck by an unidentified munition, resulting in a fire breaking out on the upper stories of the building. The strike resulted in two residents of the building being wounded, and the Romanian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the munition was a drone of Russian origin.
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Analyst Comments: The summer fighting season in Ukraine is clearly starting to cause more problems and instability for the European continent, as demonstrated by last night's drone incident in Romania. Right now, a major Russian offensive is underway in Odessa, and fighting along most of the fronts has picked up over the past few weeks. As such, it's not a stretch to surmise that this was a drone-off-course situation as hundreds of drones were used by Russia to attack targets along the southwestern front of the war. However, this is not the first time that Romania has dealt with supposedly "off-course" drones from the war. Drone incursions in Romania have been reported several times before, with the Russian ambassador even being summoned to explain this behavior in September of last year. Additionally, Ukraine has made good use of long-range drones as well, with a total of three tanker vessels reportedly being targeted in the Black Sea just off the coast of Turkey on the same night. As these vessels are a part of Russia's shadow-fleet of sanctioned vessels, these drones were almost certainly Ukrainian, as Ukraine seeks to prevent Russia from capitalizing on the oil shock crisis currently inflating global oil prices. Bottom line, drones are filling the skies by all sides, and as technology improves collateral damage in warfare becomes much more costly, all the while the stakes increase around the world.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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Approximately one hour ago, a small commercial aircraft was reported as being overdue while conducting a routine flight in Alaska. A Cessna Caravan (tail number N321BA) operating for Bering Air was reportedly carrying 10x souls at the time of being reported missing.
I have pulled the aircraft's flight path, and imported all data I have to the CIP/COP Map below: https://arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00
Unfortunately it's not much, but I've plotted my best guess for where the aerial search is likely to be conducted. So far at least one search and rescue aircraft has been observed heading to the aircraft's last known location. I hope to have more information (and hopefully good news) by morning; this is just what I have completed tonight.
I have pulled the aircraft's flight path, and imported all data I have to the CIP/COP Map below: https://arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00
Unfortunately it's not much, but I've plotted my best guess for where the aerial search is likely to be conducted. So far at least one search and rescue aircraft has been observed heading to the aircraft's last known location. I hope to have more information (and hopefully good news) by morning; this is just what I have completed tonight.
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