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Recent Notes
//The Wire//2300Z July 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CENTCOM CONFIRMS FOUR AMERICAN CASUALTIES FOLLOWING IRANIAN STRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN NYC.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Jordan: Over the weekend CENTCOM confirmed the deaths of three US service members, who were killed as a result of the strikes on a barracks building at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase. Two of the casualties have been identified as 1LT Tyler James Feehan, and Private Isabella Gonzales. The third casualty officially remains classified as Missing in Action as the remains will require DNA analysis to confirm identity, and has not yet been officially identified. A fourth casualty was also reported somewhere in Iraq, which was the result of an Iranian drone strike.
Middle East: Following Iranian targeting of the al-Subiya Power Station, Kuwait has begun to rely on portable substations and generators to provide electricity while repairs are made. The scale of the power outages is not known, but Iranian forces have struck several logistical hubs and electrical power plants over the past few days. In Bahrain, Iranian targeting has remained heavy over the weekend, with several ballistic missile strikes reported at American installations around the country.
Strait of Hormuz: Several more merchant vessels were struck over the past few days, most of which were tankers attempting to use the southern Omani route instead of the Iranian route. At least one of these vessels resulted in the crew abandoning ship before being rescued.
Iran: After these collective strikes over the weekend, American targeting efforts intensified with the latest bombing campaign focusing on the targeting of bridges and civilian roadway tunnels around Bandar Abbas. Many of the roads that lead to the port city are now cut off, with only a few major roadways allowing access to the city. Several bridges have also already been repaired, and the status of others remains unclear until better satellite imagery is available.
-HomeFront-
New York: This morning an arson attack was reported at the Federal building in downtown Manhattan. One assailant approached the building with a bucket of gasoline, dumping the bucket at the northeast side of the structure. The suspect immediately ignited the pool of gas, which also contained a mix of commercial grade fireworks. The suspect was immediately detained by the plethora of police already on scene, as the accelerant burned on the sidewalk.
Analyst Comment: No motive has yet been conveyed regarding this attack, however some of the paraphernalia scattered throughout the scene of the attack appears to be political in nature, opposing ICE.
Washington D.C. - This morning, the latest numbers for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels were released indicating that over the past week, the US has drained the SPR by an additional 5.1 million barrels, to it's lowest level since the Tanker War in 1983.
Analyst Comment: Many might have assumed that the US might have re-stocked the SPR during the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, however very little oil actually made it out of the region during that time, which amounted to only a tiny fraction of US daily usage. Since the war began five months ago, only a very small percentage of oil has exited the region, and the US has been draining the SPR at breakneck pace in order to keep the country going.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning the American casualties sustained over the weekend, it is extremely important to note that the deaths of 1LT Feehan and PVT Gonzales are officially classified under Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (OIR)...not under Operation EPIC FURY (OEFU). Inherent Resolve is the long-standing mission to combat ISIS in Syria, and not in any way linked to the current war in Iran. As a result, the true number of casualties sustained warrants further investigation. This classification could have been an administrative error, but this would also be a way of camouflaging casualty figures. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) is the main database for logging all American casualties, which are defined by military operation. In this case, these deaths are not cataloged under either operation yet, adding to the more broad (but also growing) concerns that the database has been concealing the true number of casualties, specifically the numbers of personnel wounded.
In fact, while admonishing these concerns as "baseless and malicious accusations" Assistant Secretary of War Sean Parnell directly contradicted the numbers his own department was producing. He stated in an interview with CBS News that roughly 100 personnel had been wounded throughout the war over the past month....while his own database states that a grand total of zero personnel had been wounded for the month of July, and three in June. If this testimony is accurate, this confirms beyond all doubt that the Pentagon is lying about the number of troops wounded during this campaign. Considering that the Pentagon has disclosed a total of 413x soldiers wounded during this entire campaign, ~100x WIA being reported within a month (which also included a two-week ceasefire) is alarming to say the least.
The cause of the fatalities reported over the weekend is also important to note as these deaths were very likely preventable. In the days leading up to the ballistic missile striking the housing at this base, the Iranians successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq. This missile defense site would have been one of the sites providing protection for missiles launched into Jordan. With this battery offline or at least degraded in some way, it is possible that a clear air corridor existed that allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to fly unchallenged through a gap in air defense coverage. If the Erbil strike also damaged the radar array, it is also very possible that the warning time for an incoming ballistic missile would have been reduced, so any defenses at the target base would have been less effective. Obviously, the true scale of the damage to this air defense site would be classified, so in the public eye we have to guess as to how bad it was based on blurry satellite imagery. However the military commanders who knew the systems and did NOT have to guess, were also the same commanders who had the authority to either issue warnings or orders to disperse from the unprotected Containerized Housing Units (CHUs) that were struck by Iran. The failure of command to disperse their soldiers is what led to these fatalities.
The very minute that the Patriot battery was struck in Erbil was a major clue that the Iranians were conducting shaping fires of their own...they were striking the air defense sites so as to open up a gap in air defense coverage, and reach out to American positions with their larger ballistic missiles.
Though it is usually in poor taste to reflect on failures in the immediate aftermath of the death of troops, in the interest of expediency sometimes uncomfortable conversations must be had in order to prevent further loss of life. If a gap in air defense coverage is what allowed this strike to happen, it is almost certain that this gap still exists and that the danger to American service members is still not mitigated. For ALL American troops in the Middle East, this observation must be noted: If the Iranians are striking air defense sites, the next assumption must be that the Iranians are planning to strike something that would have been protected by that site. In retrospect this is common sense, but even at this very moment, the continued strikes on American positions (and the nearly total lack of fortification efforts at these bases, even to this day) continues to indicate that the Iranian targeting efforts are not being taken seriously by senior American decision makers. Five months into this war, CENTCOM leadership has still not figured out that the Iranians can strike their bases at will, and as demonstrated by the strikes in Kuwait and Jordan, the US is still not digging in, and also not dispersing enough to avoid troops getting killed. No underground fortification efforts have been undertaken at any base in the Middle East, and satellite imagery indicates that no substantial fortifications have been undertaken either. Granting as much leeway to the Pentagon's decision making process as possible, it is possible that no hardening of defenses would have mattered considering the missiles Iran is launching. Drone defense is one thing, but it would take years to build a bunker that would withstand the impact of an Iranian Fattah or Ghadr missile. Nevertheless, when it comes to defending American positions, doing something is better than doing nothing, and concrete does not take half a year to dry.
Even if large-scale construction projects are off the menu, ALL military publications, textbooks, and training scenarios dictate and demand what has been obvious since World War One...Dispersion is the name of the game. This is what kept casualties to a minimum in Bahrain, but different theater commanders have different personal initiatives. Some are more proactive with their defense, and others have done nothing at all, besides making sure that all of the vehicles in the motorpool are lined up neatly.
Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but unless radical and immediate changes are made, the United States will continue to suffer casualties. And as long as the bombing continues which is motivating Iran to target our bases, this indirectly highlights the deficiencies with American air defense technologies, not just for this war, but for the wars to come.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CENTCOM CONFIRMS FOUR AMERICAN CASUALTIES FOLLOWING IRANIAN STRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN NYC.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Jordan: Over the weekend CENTCOM confirmed the deaths of three US service members, who were killed as a result of the strikes on a barracks building at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase. Two of the casualties have been identified as 1LT Tyler James Feehan, and Private Isabella Gonzales. The third casualty officially remains classified as Missing in Action as the remains will require DNA analysis to confirm identity, and has not yet been officially identified. A fourth casualty was also reported somewhere in Iraq, which was the result of an Iranian drone strike.
Middle East: Following Iranian targeting of the al-Subiya Power Station, Kuwait has begun to rely on portable substations and generators to provide electricity while repairs are made. The scale of the power outages is not known, but Iranian forces have struck several logistical hubs and electrical power plants over the past few days. In Bahrain, Iranian targeting has remained heavy over the weekend, with several ballistic missile strikes reported at American installations around the country.
Strait of Hormuz: Several more merchant vessels were struck over the past few days, most of which were tankers attempting to use the southern Omani route instead of the Iranian route. At least one of these vessels resulted in the crew abandoning ship before being rescued.
Iran: After these collective strikes over the weekend, American targeting efforts intensified with the latest bombing campaign focusing on the targeting of bridges and civilian roadway tunnels around Bandar Abbas. Many of the roads that lead to the port city are now cut off, with only a few major roadways allowing access to the city. Several bridges have also already been repaired, and the status of others remains unclear until better satellite imagery is available.
-HomeFront-
New York: This morning an arson attack was reported at the Federal building in downtown Manhattan. One assailant approached the building with a bucket of gasoline, dumping the bucket at the northeast side of the structure. The suspect immediately ignited the pool of gas, which also contained a mix of commercial grade fireworks. The suspect was immediately detained by the plethora of police already on scene, as the accelerant burned on the sidewalk.
Analyst Comment: No motive has yet been conveyed regarding this attack, however some of the paraphernalia scattered throughout the scene of the attack appears to be political in nature, opposing ICE.
Washington D.C. - This morning, the latest numbers for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels were released indicating that over the past week, the US has drained the SPR by an additional 5.1 million barrels, to it's lowest level since the Tanker War in 1983.
Analyst Comment: Many might have assumed that the US might have re-stocked the SPR during the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, however very little oil actually made it out of the region during that time, which amounted to only a tiny fraction of US daily usage. Since the war began five months ago, only a very small percentage of oil has exited the region, and the US has been draining the SPR at breakneck pace in order to keep the country going.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning the American casualties sustained over the weekend, it is extremely important to note that the deaths of 1LT Feehan and PVT Gonzales are officially classified under Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (OIR)...not under Operation EPIC FURY (OEFU). Inherent Resolve is the long-standing mission to combat ISIS in Syria, and not in any way linked to the current war in Iran. As a result, the true number of casualties sustained warrants further investigation. This classification could have been an administrative error, but this would also be a way of camouflaging casualty figures. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) is the main database for logging all American casualties, which are defined by military operation. In this case, these deaths are not cataloged under either operation yet, adding to the more broad (but also growing) concerns that the database has been concealing the true number of casualties, specifically the numbers of personnel wounded.
In fact, while admonishing these concerns as "baseless and malicious accusations" Assistant Secretary of War Sean Parnell directly contradicted the numbers his own department was producing. He stated in an interview with CBS News that roughly 100 personnel had been wounded throughout the war over the past month....while his own database states that a grand total of zero personnel had been wounded for the month of July, and three in June. If this testimony is accurate, this confirms beyond all doubt that the Pentagon is lying about the number of troops wounded during this campaign. Considering that the Pentagon has disclosed a total of 413x soldiers wounded during this entire campaign, ~100x WIA being reported within a month (which also included a two-week ceasefire) is alarming to say the least.
The cause of the fatalities reported over the weekend is also important to note as these deaths were very likely preventable. In the days leading up to the ballistic missile striking the housing at this base, the Iranians successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq. This missile defense site would have been one of the sites providing protection for missiles launched into Jordan. With this battery offline or at least degraded in some way, it is possible that a clear air corridor existed that allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to fly unchallenged through a gap in air defense coverage. If the Erbil strike also damaged the radar array, it is also very possible that the warning time for an incoming ballistic missile would have been reduced, so any defenses at the target base would have been less effective. Obviously, the true scale of the damage to this air defense site would be classified, so in the public eye we have to guess as to how bad it was based on blurry satellite imagery. However the military commanders who knew the systems and did NOT have to guess, were also the same commanders who had the authority to either issue warnings or orders to disperse from the unprotected Containerized Housing Units (CHUs) that were struck by Iran. The failure of command to disperse their soldiers is what led to these fatalities.
The very minute that the Patriot battery was struck in Erbil was a major clue that the Iranians were conducting shaping fires of their own...they were striking the air defense sites so as to open up a gap in air defense coverage, and reach out to American positions with their larger ballistic missiles.
Though it is usually in poor taste to reflect on failures in the immediate aftermath of the death of troops, in the interest of expediency sometimes uncomfortable conversations must be had in order to prevent further loss of life. If a gap in air defense coverage is what allowed this strike to happen, it is almost certain that this gap still exists and that the danger to American service members is still not mitigated. For ALL American troops in the Middle East, this observation must be noted: If the Iranians are striking air defense sites, the next assumption must be that the Iranians are planning to strike something that would have been protected by that site. In retrospect this is common sense, but even at this very moment, the continued strikes on American positions (and the nearly total lack of fortification efforts at these bases, even to this day) continues to indicate that the Iranian targeting efforts are not being taken seriously by senior American decision makers. Five months into this war, CENTCOM leadership has still not figured out that the Iranians can strike their bases at will, and as demonstrated by the strikes in Kuwait and Jordan, the US is still not digging in, and also not dispersing enough to avoid troops getting killed. No underground fortification efforts have been undertaken at any base in the Middle East, and satellite imagery indicates that no substantial fortifications have been undertaken either. Granting as much leeway to the Pentagon's decision making process as possible, it is possible that no hardening of defenses would have mattered considering the missiles Iran is launching. Drone defense is one thing, but it would take years to build a bunker that would withstand the impact of an Iranian Fattah or Ghadr missile. Nevertheless, when it comes to defending American positions, doing something is better than doing nothing, and concrete does not take half a year to dry.
Even if large-scale construction projects are off the menu, ALL military publications, textbooks, and training scenarios dictate and demand what has been obvious since World War One...Dispersion is the name of the game. This is what kept casualties to a minimum in Bahrain, but different theater commanders have different personal initiatives. Some are more proactive with their defense, and others have done nothing at all, besides making sure that all of the vehicles in the motorpool are lined up neatly.
Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but unless radical and immediate changes are made, the United States will continue to suffer casualties. And as long as the bombing continues which is motivating Iran to target our bases, this indirectly highlights the deficiencies with American air defense technologies, not just for this war, but for the wars to come.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z July 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR ESCALATES AS INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING BEGINS. SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN RETALIATION REPORTED ON AMERICAN INSTALLATIONS. IRANIAN TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING REMAINS CONSTANT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war escalated again overnight, with the United States beginning the series of strikes on bridges and infrastructure targets intended to soften up areas near the coast of Iran. Several bridges were struck in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with the usual nightly strikes on more military targets.
On the Iranian side, the targeting of American installations has been substantial over the past few days. In Iraq, Iranian forces successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, with satellite imagery indicating burn scars in the vicinity of where one launcher was previously located. In the UAE, a series of warehouses and probable weapons storage facilities were destroyed at the Zayed Military City. In Kuwait, one of the HIMARS launcher sites on the Iraqi border was targeted, in addition to a desalination plant providing the fresh water supply for Kuwait City.
Persian Gulf: The war on the seas continued with many different strikes and incidents being reported around the region. At the northern end of the Gulf, the UKMTO reported an unidentified incident involving a merchant vessel, which was carried out by unknown parties and in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea, several targeting efforts of merchant vessels was reported throughout the day.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Last night's targeting in Iran possibly offers up a clue as to what the military objective of this specific operation might be. The bridges that were struck by the United States are not specifically military targets, however they did offer high-speed avenues of approach to the coastline. If the IRGC ground force needed to reinforce specifically the area of the coastline to the west of Bandar Abbas, north of Qeshm Island, these would be the bridges they would need to use.
The bridges that were taken out also would be a way of isolating Bandar Abbas in terms of trade. In addition to the naval base being a military target, this is also a major civilian port city that handles the import of a lot of cargo for the nation (some reports claim up to 80% of Iran's imports arrive at this port). Under normal circumstances, taking out bridges is a tricky subject in the world of military targeting; if the bridge is predominantly used for military purposes, it's usually a valid target, but if it's predominantly a civilian bridge it's not normally legal to target. This categorization gets really blurry really quickly, but what is very clear is that targeting infrastructure like this isolates the military objective into only a few possibilities.
Either the United States is attempting to go scorched-earth on civilian infrastructure so as to make life as miserable as possible and thus attempt to turn the populace against the government...or this is pre-shaping fires for other operations that might take place in the vicinity of the coastline. Neither option makes a whole lot of tactical sense, but making sense has not been a prerequisite for any military objective sought so far during this conflict, so the continued targeting over the next few days will probably shed some light on what the objective is with this latest campaign. As of this afternoon, dozens of refueling tankers are once again making their way into the Middle East from Europe and beyond, so the war is likely to continue escalating for foreseeable future.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR ESCALATES AS INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING BEGINS. SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN RETALIATION REPORTED ON AMERICAN INSTALLATIONS. IRANIAN TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING REMAINS CONSTANT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war escalated again overnight, with the United States beginning the series of strikes on bridges and infrastructure targets intended to soften up areas near the coast of Iran. Several bridges were struck in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with the usual nightly strikes on more military targets.
On the Iranian side, the targeting of American installations has been substantial over the past few days. In Iraq, Iranian forces successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, with satellite imagery indicating burn scars in the vicinity of where one launcher was previously located. In the UAE, a series of warehouses and probable weapons storage facilities were destroyed at the Zayed Military City. In Kuwait, one of the HIMARS launcher sites on the Iraqi border was targeted, in addition to a desalination plant providing the fresh water supply for Kuwait City.
Persian Gulf: The war on the seas continued with many different strikes and incidents being reported around the region. At the northern end of the Gulf, the UKMTO reported an unidentified incident involving a merchant vessel, which was carried out by unknown parties and in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea, several targeting efforts of merchant vessels was reported throughout the day.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Last night's targeting in Iran possibly offers up a clue as to what the military objective of this specific operation might be. The bridges that were struck by the United States are not specifically military targets, however they did offer high-speed avenues of approach to the coastline. If the IRGC ground force needed to reinforce specifically the area of the coastline to the west of Bandar Abbas, north of Qeshm Island, these would be the bridges they would need to use.
The bridges that were taken out also would be a way of isolating Bandar Abbas in terms of trade. In addition to the naval base being a military target, this is also a major civilian port city that handles the import of a lot of cargo for the nation (some reports claim up to 80% of Iran's imports arrive at this port). Under normal circumstances, taking out bridges is a tricky subject in the world of military targeting; if the bridge is predominantly used for military purposes, it's usually a valid target, but if it's predominantly a civilian bridge it's not normally legal to target. This categorization gets really blurry really quickly, but what is very clear is that targeting infrastructure like this isolates the military objective into only a few possibilities.
Either the United States is attempting to go scorched-earth on civilian infrastructure so as to make life as miserable as possible and thus attempt to turn the populace against the government...or this is pre-shaping fires for other operations that might take place in the vicinity of the coastline. Neither option makes a whole lot of tactical sense, but making sense has not been a prerequisite for any military objective sought so far during this conflict, so the continued targeting over the next few days will probably shed some light on what the objective is with this latest campaign. As of this afternoon, dozens of refueling tankers are once again making their way into the Middle East from Europe and beyond, so the war is likely to continue escalating for foreseeable future.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
11👍1🫡1
Hey everyone, kind of an odd one today. I had a spur of the moment thought this morning and decided that what I was going to say in tomorrow's Intel Update, would be best served as a dedicated podcast/video. I did not want to bog down the more informational content with a full-blown rant segment, so I recorded this separately. Link below! https://youtu.be/q41OaKuR4Bs
34❤️2🎉1
//The Wire//1800Z July 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE ON RUSSIAN SHIPPING IN BLACK SEA, RUSSIA RETALIATES BY STRIKING UKRAINIAN SHIPPING. WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN CANADA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The war in Ukraine has continued to expand, with attacks on Russian merchant vessels remaining constant in the Black Sea. Russia has likewise retaliated by striking Ukrainian vessels also located within the Black Sea, as well as several port cities in southwestern Ukraine.
Middle East: The war continues as before, with regular strikes taking place in the coastal regions which have been host to targeting for several days. Last night the US struck the port of Bandar Abbas again, and the Iranians have responded with attacks on Kuwait, which continued sporadically overnight.
Analyst Comment: One aspect of the war that has not escalated for now, has been the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. After the initial mutual strikes two days ago, the Saudi's have chosen to back off of this line of effort, probably because they realized how bad of an idea it is to start a fight with the Houthis right now. That Saudi East-West Pipeline is the main asset that is keeping Saudi Arabia in the global oil market right now, and the Houthis can very easily threaten their main revenue source.
Canada: Over the past few days, wildfires have continued to spread throughout the nation. As of this morning, at total of 859x wildfires are actively burning nationwide in Canada, most of which are clustered in Ontario, Qeubec, and the Northwest Territories. Of these active fires, 63x are out of control with zero percent containment. Evacuations of thousands of rural and tribal areas have been ordered over thousands of square miles, and air quality alerts have been issued for much of the American northeast and mid-Atlantic due to the smoke.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though not exactly grabbing front page headlines, the war in Ukraine has continued to expand and become increasingly more serious during this year's summer offensive.
Numbers are hard to independently verify, but the Ukrainians claim a total of 136x Russian vessels have been struck so far during this Black Sea targeting campaign since it began last week. This number seems a little high, but what is undeniable is that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have become a new front during this war...for both sides, as demonstrated by the Russians now targeting Ukrainian ships. Equally important is the impact this is having on the broader Russian oil market. Previous strikes on petroleum refineries resulted in fuel shortages throughout Russia, which have varied by severity and location. Striking tankers in the Black Sea really only impacts the petroleum export market, and the long-term impacts of this will be interesting to follow.
Like it or not, the concept of globalization has functioned as designed, and most nations are linked to each other in ways that are not readily apparent at first. Russia mostly exports oil to India and China, and their exports have remained high during the Persian Gulf crisis. So Ukraine, in striking the oil intended for China, is directly playing a hand in the Gulf War...a conflict thousands of miles away. How this will manifest over the next few weeks will be important. Gas prices in the US have been MUCH cheaper than they should be, due to a long list of factors, one of which has been the Chinese dipping into their own reserves to sharply reduce their demand. Ukraine strikes ships intended for China, and China now has to either dip into their reserves more...or buy more oil from the Middle East, and demand goes up in an already restricted supply chain. The Gulf War is still hot to some degree, and the miniscule flow of oil that had begun to trickle out of the Gulf during the ceasefire has once again slowed to a drip...and now that Ukraine is striking Russian oil intended for China, an already tight oil market is probably going to be squeezed even harder.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE ON RUSSIAN SHIPPING IN BLACK SEA, RUSSIA RETALIATES BY STRIKING UKRAINIAN SHIPPING. WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN CANADA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The war in Ukraine has continued to expand, with attacks on Russian merchant vessels remaining constant in the Black Sea. Russia has likewise retaliated by striking Ukrainian vessels also located within the Black Sea, as well as several port cities in southwestern Ukraine.
Middle East: The war continues as before, with regular strikes taking place in the coastal regions which have been host to targeting for several days. Last night the US struck the port of Bandar Abbas again, and the Iranians have responded with attacks on Kuwait, which continued sporadically overnight.
Analyst Comment: One aspect of the war that has not escalated for now, has been the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. After the initial mutual strikes two days ago, the Saudi's have chosen to back off of this line of effort, probably because they realized how bad of an idea it is to start a fight with the Houthis right now. That Saudi East-West Pipeline is the main asset that is keeping Saudi Arabia in the global oil market right now, and the Houthis can very easily threaten their main revenue source.
Canada: Over the past few days, wildfires have continued to spread throughout the nation. As of this morning, at total of 859x wildfires are actively burning nationwide in Canada, most of which are clustered in Ontario, Qeubec, and the Northwest Territories. Of these active fires, 63x are out of control with zero percent containment. Evacuations of thousands of rural and tribal areas have been ordered over thousands of square miles, and air quality alerts have been issued for much of the American northeast and mid-Atlantic due to the smoke.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though not exactly grabbing front page headlines, the war in Ukraine has continued to expand and become increasingly more serious during this year's summer offensive.
Numbers are hard to independently verify, but the Ukrainians claim a total of 136x Russian vessels have been struck so far during this Black Sea targeting campaign since it began last week. This number seems a little high, but what is undeniable is that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have become a new front during this war...for both sides, as demonstrated by the Russians now targeting Ukrainian ships. Equally important is the impact this is having on the broader Russian oil market. Previous strikes on petroleum refineries resulted in fuel shortages throughout Russia, which have varied by severity and location. Striking tankers in the Black Sea really only impacts the petroleum export market, and the long-term impacts of this will be interesting to follow.
Like it or not, the concept of globalization has functioned as designed, and most nations are linked to each other in ways that are not readily apparent at first. Russia mostly exports oil to India and China, and their exports have remained high during the Persian Gulf crisis. So Ukraine, in striking the oil intended for China, is directly playing a hand in the Gulf War...a conflict thousands of miles away. How this will manifest over the next few weeks will be important. Gas prices in the US have been MUCH cheaper than they should be, due to a long list of factors, one of which has been the Chinese dipping into their own reserves to sharply reduce their demand. Ukraine strikes ships intended for China, and China now has to either dip into their reserves more...or buy more oil from the Middle East, and demand goes up in an already restricted supply chain. The Gulf War is still hot to some degree, and the miniscule flow of oil that had begun to trickle out of the Gulf during the ceasefire has once again slowed to a drip...and now that Ukraine is striking Russian oil intended for China, an already tight oil market is probably going to be squeezed even harder.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//1900Z July 14, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS HOT WITH USA AND IRAN EXCHANGING HEAVY FIRE OVERNIGHT. NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALISTS ISSUED SUBPOENAS REGARDING THEIR REPORTING ON AIR FORCE ONE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with the attack/counterattack cycle no longer being distinguishable, as all belligerents are now attacking constantly. At least two more ships have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz since last night, and the US has continued to fly continuous sorties to strike targets within Iran. Dozens of targets were struck overnight, with CENTCOM announcing that the sorties took 5 hours to complete throughout the region. As of this morning, nearly all of the targets that have been struck have been within a few hundred yards of the Gulf, with heavy concentrations of targets being located within Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Jask, all of which are major naval bases. Most of the Gulf islands have also been struck, with Qeshm and Kish Islands being targeted heavily this afternoon.
Conversely, Iran has conducted their own strikes in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. In Kuwait, Iranian forces have conducted counter-battery fire on American HIMARS missile launcher sites, with multiple ballistic missile strikes taking place at most of the US bases and missile launch sites all day.
Analyst Comment: Over the past 24 hours, the war in the Middle East has returned to the level of fighting first observed during the height of the war back in March. How long this is planned to continue is unknown, but this is not a slight increase in targeting; the war appears to be fully back on once again.
United Kingdom: This morning Counterterrorism police released more details regarding a high-profile murder case that took place last week. On Thursday, Ann Widdecombe was found murdered in her home in the town of Haytor in Devon. After her murder was discovered, local authorities immediately referred the case to counterterrorism, and one suspect has already been arrested in conjunction with this case. This suspect has been charged for the murder, and as of this morning terrorism offenses have been added to the list of charges.
Analyst Comment: This case is noteworthy as most of the information so far indicates this was a political assassination, and the speed at which authorities have immediately declared this to be a terrorism incident is very, very unusual. Widdecombe was a former Member of Parliament, and in her later years was a familiar conservative political commentator known to weigh in on political issues throughout the nation. More details may or may not come to light in due time regarding the identity of the suspect, but due to the high-profile nature of this murder, this case will be in the headlines for a while.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Yesterday a total of five New York Times reporters have been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury, to testify regarding their reporting on the alleged security breaches onboard the new Air Force One. Last week, President Trump flew to Turkey for the NATO summit on the new airframe, but during the trip, an undisclosed security issue prompted the Secret Service to switch back to the older platform.
Analyst Comment: The details of exactly what the alleged crimes are, have not been disclosed. The New York Times has a history of publishing content which could lead to security issues, but in this case nothing they wrote in their original report appears to have been classified. However, they did explicitly state that they had a source who had classified knowledge of the defenses (or rather, the alleged lack of defenses) on the new Air Force One platform, which is probably why the harsh crackdown on the New York Times. They also made the claim that the new airframe has not had enough time to install the anti-missile countermeasures of the older platform, though no detail on this was provided. Regardless, talking to journalists in any capacity about any of the protection measures used by the White House is a huge no-no, and one of the most sensitive issues that always results in a very heavy-handed response.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war in the Persian Gulf rages on, concerns are growing regarding the apparent widening of the war to include the Red Sea region. The mutual targeting between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen has continued to some degree, though it's too soon to tell if either party is committed to turning this into a more protracted fight. If that is the chosen course of action, the situation is likely to get very serious.
While the Strait of Hormuz remains a hot warzone that has restricted the flow of about 20 million barrels per day out of the region, the Saudi East-West Pipeline system has been working to reduce this deficit by pumping roughly 7 million barrels per day during most of this conflict. This has eased the burden of Hormuz being cut off, and has been one of the main factors keeping oil from reaching $200 per barrel. However, this pipeline runs from the Gulf, across the desert, before terminating in Yanbu at a major oil export terminal. This terminal....is within missile range of the Houthis. Somewhat interestingly, there are also very little air defenses in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia despite the Saudis fighting the Houthis for a couple of decades at this point; nearly all missile defenses are on the northern coastline or in the vicinity of American bases. So far during this conflict, the Iranians have successfully struck the Yanbu oil terminal using extremely long-range (and slow-flying) drones. The Houthis have a much higher chance of success in threatening Yanbu, and if they are able to strike this facility, the global oil crisis will go from worse to worst.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS HOT WITH USA AND IRAN EXCHANGING HEAVY FIRE OVERNIGHT. NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALISTS ISSUED SUBPOENAS REGARDING THEIR REPORTING ON AIR FORCE ONE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with the attack/counterattack cycle no longer being distinguishable, as all belligerents are now attacking constantly. At least two more ships have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz since last night, and the US has continued to fly continuous sorties to strike targets within Iran. Dozens of targets were struck overnight, with CENTCOM announcing that the sorties took 5 hours to complete throughout the region. As of this morning, nearly all of the targets that have been struck have been within a few hundred yards of the Gulf, with heavy concentrations of targets being located within Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Jask, all of which are major naval bases. Most of the Gulf islands have also been struck, with Qeshm and Kish Islands being targeted heavily this afternoon.
Conversely, Iran has conducted their own strikes in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. In Kuwait, Iranian forces have conducted counter-battery fire on American HIMARS missile launcher sites, with multiple ballistic missile strikes taking place at most of the US bases and missile launch sites all day.
Analyst Comment: Over the past 24 hours, the war in the Middle East has returned to the level of fighting first observed during the height of the war back in March. How long this is planned to continue is unknown, but this is not a slight increase in targeting; the war appears to be fully back on once again.
United Kingdom: This morning Counterterrorism police released more details regarding a high-profile murder case that took place last week. On Thursday, Ann Widdecombe was found murdered in her home in the town of Haytor in Devon. After her murder was discovered, local authorities immediately referred the case to counterterrorism, and one suspect has already been arrested in conjunction with this case. This suspect has been charged for the murder, and as of this morning terrorism offenses have been added to the list of charges.
Analyst Comment: This case is noteworthy as most of the information so far indicates this was a political assassination, and the speed at which authorities have immediately declared this to be a terrorism incident is very, very unusual. Widdecombe was a former Member of Parliament, and in her later years was a familiar conservative political commentator known to weigh in on political issues throughout the nation. More details may or may not come to light in due time regarding the identity of the suspect, but due to the high-profile nature of this murder, this case will be in the headlines for a while.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Yesterday a total of five New York Times reporters have been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury, to testify regarding their reporting on the alleged security breaches onboard the new Air Force One. Last week, President Trump flew to Turkey for the NATO summit on the new airframe, but during the trip, an undisclosed security issue prompted the Secret Service to switch back to the older platform.
Analyst Comment: The details of exactly what the alleged crimes are, have not been disclosed. The New York Times has a history of publishing content which could lead to security issues, but in this case nothing they wrote in their original report appears to have been classified. However, they did explicitly state that they had a source who had classified knowledge of the defenses (or rather, the alleged lack of defenses) on the new Air Force One platform, which is probably why the harsh crackdown on the New York Times. They also made the claim that the new airframe has not had enough time to install the anti-missile countermeasures of the older platform, though no detail on this was provided. Regardless, talking to journalists in any capacity about any of the protection measures used by the White House is a huge no-no, and one of the most sensitive issues that always results in a very heavy-handed response.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war in the Persian Gulf rages on, concerns are growing regarding the apparent widening of the war to include the Red Sea region. The mutual targeting between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen has continued to some degree, though it's too soon to tell if either party is committed to turning this into a more protracted fight. If that is the chosen course of action, the situation is likely to get very serious.
While the Strait of Hormuz remains a hot warzone that has restricted the flow of about 20 million barrels per day out of the region, the Saudi East-West Pipeline system has been working to reduce this deficit by pumping roughly 7 million barrels per day during most of this conflict. This has eased the burden of Hormuz being cut off, and has been one of the main factors keeping oil from reaching $200 per barrel. However, this pipeline runs from the Gulf, across the desert, before terminating in Yanbu at a major oil export terminal. This terminal....is within missile range of the Houthis. Somewhat interestingly, there are also very little air defenses in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia despite the Saudis fighting the Houthis for a couple of decades at this point; nearly all missile defenses are on the northern coastline or in the vicinity of American bases. So far during this conflict, the Iranians have successfully struck the Yanbu oil terminal using extremely long-range (and slow-flying) drones. The Houthis have a much higher chance of success in threatening Yanbu, and if they are able to strike this facility, the global oil crisis will go from worse to worst.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
This week's Intel Update is out! This week has seen a resurgence of many conflicts around the world, as the fate of both Ukraine and the Middle East hang in the balance and both wars heat up. Link below! https://youtu.be/e8eZKQsQyyY
11❤️3
//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CEASEFIRE REMAINS DEFUNCT FOR NOW. MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN HORMUZ SLOWS TO A CRAWL DUE TO TARGETING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with many targeting efforts being undertaken by the United States and Iran. Within Iran, the U.S. continued to strike coastal sites and fastboat ports, in addition to striking more substantial infrastructure targets deep within Iran. These strikes continued throughout the day, with explosions being reported around the country this afternoon.
On the Iranian side, many strikes were carried out on the usual sites throughout the region. In Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan were targeted, with the Iranians claiming to hit a Patriot battery at one of these sites. In Qatar, a radar installation was targeted, and a fuel depot was targeted in Bahrain. In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was targeted again, with the American Embassy in Amman urging all Americans to shelter in place during the strikes. Drone/missile strikes were also reported targeting U.S. positions in Erbil, Iraq, the success of which is currently unknown.
-HomeFront-
New York: The Department of Buildings has reported that the former Pfizer building has largely been stabilized, after severe buckling and a partial collapse of the upper floors was observed a few days ago. Various reinforcement operations continue to be undertaken to further stabilize the structure, and a third-party construction firm has been brought in to conduct additional repairs.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite many airframes being transferred back to the United States from the Middle East, American targeting within Iran has continued throughout the day. The heavy reliance on Tomahawk munitions (as observed on the ground by Iranians) also adds weight to the theory of the US having to rely on standoff munitions due to the logistical movements resulting in fewer aircraft being available for bombing runs.
Also, last night's strikes were also possibly more significant than meets the eye. Locals on the ground reported the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge being struck overnight, which was interesting due to it's location being in the far northeastern corner of Iran. This bridge is part of the newly unveiled China-Iran railway network, which is a series of rail lines linking Iran to western China. These lines also meander through the mountains to eventually connect to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Taking out this bridge was not only interesting because it is one of the farthest-north targets struck during the entire war, but it's also a very public message to China, who has been long-suspected of shipping the Iranians materiel and supplies to carry on the fight.
In the Strait of Hormuz, civilian merchant traffic continued to transit the waterway, but since last night the traffic has slowed to a halt again with very few crossings throughout the day. As a reminder, it takes up to two months for a tanker to make it's way to the US from the Middle East. Consequently, if the Iranians shut down the Strait again due to this targeting (or if companies simply decide that the risk isn't worth it), the world will only have the benefit of a handful of tankers which have been able to make the crossing over the past couple of weeks. This does not even remotely come close to alleviating the problems that prompted the MOU being signed...President Trump himself said that (at the time) the US only had about 4 weeks worth of Strategic Reserve left before shortages began. As the fighting has resumed to some degree, the status of the global energy crisis remains a very real concern, and the clock starts ticking down as the flow of petroleum slows down once again.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CEASEFIRE REMAINS DEFUNCT FOR NOW. MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN HORMUZ SLOWS TO A CRAWL DUE TO TARGETING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with many targeting efforts being undertaken by the United States and Iran. Within Iran, the U.S. continued to strike coastal sites and fastboat ports, in addition to striking more substantial infrastructure targets deep within Iran. These strikes continued throughout the day, with explosions being reported around the country this afternoon.
On the Iranian side, many strikes were carried out on the usual sites throughout the region. In Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan were targeted, with the Iranians claiming to hit a Patriot battery at one of these sites. In Qatar, a radar installation was targeted, and a fuel depot was targeted in Bahrain. In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was targeted again, with the American Embassy in Amman urging all Americans to shelter in place during the strikes. Drone/missile strikes were also reported targeting U.S. positions in Erbil, Iraq, the success of which is currently unknown.
-HomeFront-
New York: The Department of Buildings has reported that the former Pfizer building has largely been stabilized, after severe buckling and a partial collapse of the upper floors was observed a few days ago. Various reinforcement operations continue to be undertaken to further stabilize the structure, and a third-party construction firm has been brought in to conduct additional repairs.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite many airframes being transferred back to the United States from the Middle East, American targeting within Iran has continued throughout the day. The heavy reliance on Tomahawk munitions (as observed on the ground by Iranians) also adds weight to the theory of the US having to rely on standoff munitions due to the logistical movements resulting in fewer aircraft being available for bombing runs.
Also, last night's strikes were also possibly more significant than meets the eye. Locals on the ground reported the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge being struck overnight, which was interesting due to it's location being in the far northeastern corner of Iran. This bridge is part of the newly unveiled China-Iran railway network, which is a series of rail lines linking Iran to western China. These lines also meander through the mountains to eventually connect to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Taking out this bridge was not only interesting because it is one of the farthest-north targets struck during the entire war, but it's also a very public message to China, who has been long-suspected of shipping the Iranians materiel and supplies to carry on the fight.
In the Strait of Hormuz, civilian merchant traffic continued to transit the waterway, but since last night the traffic has slowed to a halt again with very few crossings throughout the day. As a reminder, it takes up to two months for a tanker to make it's way to the US from the Middle East. Consequently, if the Iranians shut down the Strait again due to this targeting (or if companies simply decide that the risk isn't worth it), the world will only have the benefit of a handful of tankers which have been able to make the crossing over the past couple of weeks. This does not even remotely come close to alleviating the problems that prompted the MOU being signed...President Trump himself said that (at the time) the US only had about 4 weeks worth of Strategic Reserve left before shortages began. As the fighting has resumed to some degree, the status of the global energy crisis remains a very real concern, and the clock starts ticking down as the flow of petroleum slows down once again.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z July 8, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES AS MAJOR STRIKES REPORTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN USA AND IRAN. SOMALI CLAN CONFLICT BREWING IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following yesterday's targeting of merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States retaliated by striking many targets within Iran. Several dozen locations were reportedly struck, ranging from naval ports to more substantial bases in the coastal region. Qeshm Island and Kharg Island were struck, in addition to many smaller ports used by IRGCN fastboats.
In retaliation, the Iranians conducted strikes on Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Possible strikes were also reported at the former 5th Fleet Headquarters in Manama. Kuwait also reported intercepting 2x ballistic missiles and 13x drones. At least one American MQ-9 drone was also shot down during the night, reportedly somewhere near Bushehr. All total, Iran claims to have conducted 85x strikes in retaliation. As last night's targeting was unfolding, President Trump was still located in Turkey for the NATO summit. During a press conference, he stated that he considered the ceasefire to be over and the Memorandum of Understanding to no longer be in effect. A few hours later, Iranian representatives also stated that the MOU has concluded.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Several small arms engagements have been reported throughout Minneapolis over the past few days. Over the July 4th holiday weekend, several instances of Somali clans targeting each other with fireworks deteriorated from a general nuisance into shootings. A total of four small arms engagements took place Saturday night, and several more shootings have been reported throughout the week, at least one of which took place at a confirmed Somali fraud site, which was being used to launder money until being raided by federal agents earlier this year.
Analyst Comment: After the wave of shootings over the weekend, yesterday Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher issued a statement confirming that all of these shootings were linked to the growing conflict between Somali Clans in the city. These concerns have been growing for some time, and now that the summer fighting season is in full swing, these engagements are likely to continue until the colder seasons arrive.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: If the ceasefire in the Middle East really is over, nobody seems to have told the Air Force, as there were a substantial number of refueling tankers on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qater as of 4 days ago. Due to how vulnerable this base is to Iranian missiles, most major engagements have usually been preceded by this specific base evacuating ahead of a large bombing campaign. The major unanswered question is whether or not this was just a particularly heavy mutual targeting effort, or if this marks a true return to the more kinetic phases of the war. At the moment, it's too soon to tell, but there aren't really enough assets in region to conduct large scale bombing campaigns. Most of the B-52's that were stationed in England have already re-deployed back home to the USA, and over the past two weeks various assorted flights of fighter aircraft have also been making their way back home from the Middle East.
It's possible that the MOU is being abandoned without the US returning to the full-blown bombing campaign, with the situation remaining in limbo and neither side really working toward a diplomatic solution. President Trump did threaten to invade Kharg Island again, in addition to re-imposing the US blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is doable with the US Navy vessels in the region, but Kharg Island is completely off the menu as this was not a viable military objective during the height of the "surge" leading to the war, and now that a significant drawdown has occurred it's even less feasible.
Concerning merchant shipping, even though the MOU is now essentially defunct, merchant traffic has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, mostly using the Iranian route. This afternoon, Iranian sources claimed that they will be closing the Strait in response to this latest wave of targeting, but as of this evening many vessels continue to transit using the Iranian route with no problems. This may change this evening as President Trump directly stated that more strikes will take place tonight. Pakistan is attempting to get Iran and the US to re-adopt the MOU and continue the framework of solutions that they had worked out. Once the smoke clears in a few days, the world may be able to determine how likely it is for the US to resume the terms of the MOU, but as the bombing has continued throughout the day, peace is not likely at the moment.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES AS MAJOR STRIKES REPORTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN USA AND IRAN. SOMALI CLAN CONFLICT BREWING IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following yesterday's targeting of merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States retaliated by striking many targets within Iran. Several dozen locations were reportedly struck, ranging from naval ports to more substantial bases in the coastal region. Qeshm Island and Kharg Island were struck, in addition to many smaller ports used by IRGCN fastboats.
In retaliation, the Iranians conducted strikes on Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Possible strikes were also reported at the former 5th Fleet Headquarters in Manama. Kuwait also reported intercepting 2x ballistic missiles and 13x drones. At least one American MQ-9 drone was also shot down during the night, reportedly somewhere near Bushehr. All total, Iran claims to have conducted 85x strikes in retaliation. As last night's targeting was unfolding, President Trump was still located in Turkey for the NATO summit. During a press conference, he stated that he considered the ceasefire to be over and the Memorandum of Understanding to no longer be in effect. A few hours later, Iranian representatives also stated that the MOU has concluded.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Several small arms engagements have been reported throughout Minneapolis over the past few days. Over the July 4th holiday weekend, several instances of Somali clans targeting each other with fireworks deteriorated from a general nuisance into shootings. A total of four small arms engagements took place Saturday night, and several more shootings have been reported throughout the week, at least one of which took place at a confirmed Somali fraud site, which was being used to launder money until being raided by federal agents earlier this year.
Analyst Comment: After the wave of shootings over the weekend, yesterday Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher issued a statement confirming that all of these shootings were linked to the growing conflict between Somali Clans in the city. These concerns have been growing for some time, and now that the summer fighting season is in full swing, these engagements are likely to continue until the colder seasons arrive.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: If the ceasefire in the Middle East really is over, nobody seems to have told the Air Force, as there were a substantial number of refueling tankers on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qater as of 4 days ago. Due to how vulnerable this base is to Iranian missiles, most major engagements have usually been preceded by this specific base evacuating ahead of a large bombing campaign. The major unanswered question is whether or not this was just a particularly heavy mutual targeting effort, or if this marks a true return to the more kinetic phases of the war. At the moment, it's too soon to tell, but there aren't really enough assets in region to conduct large scale bombing campaigns. Most of the B-52's that were stationed in England have already re-deployed back home to the USA, and over the past two weeks various assorted flights of fighter aircraft have also been making their way back home from the Middle East.
It's possible that the MOU is being abandoned without the US returning to the full-blown bombing campaign, with the situation remaining in limbo and neither side really working toward a diplomatic solution. President Trump did threaten to invade Kharg Island again, in addition to re-imposing the US blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is doable with the US Navy vessels in the region, but Kharg Island is completely off the menu as this was not a viable military objective during the height of the "surge" leading to the war, and now that a significant drawdown has occurred it's even less feasible.
Concerning merchant shipping, even though the MOU is now essentially defunct, merchant traffic has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, mostly using the Iranian route. This afternoon, Iranian sources claimed that they will be closing the Strait in response to this latest wave of targeting, but as of this evening many vessels continue to transit using the Iranian route with no problems. This may change this evening as President Trump directly stated that more strikes will take place tonight. Pakistan is attempting to get Iran and the US to re-adopt the MOU and continue the framework of solutions that they had worked out. Once the smoke clears in a few days, the world may be able to determine how likely it is for the US to resume the terms of the MOU, but as the bombing has continued throughout the day, peace is not likely at the moment.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
👍1
//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EXPLOSIONS REPORTED NEAR HOTEL HOUSING FRENCH PRESIDENT DURING STATE VISIT TO DAMASCUS. MONACO BOMBER FOUND DEAD IN UKRAINE. IRAN RESUMES TARGETING OF UNAUTHORIZED TRANSITS OF HORMUZ STRAIT. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING STATUS OF SENATOR MCCONNELL'S HEALTH, COMPLICATING UPCOMING ELECTION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Syria: This morning several explosive devices were detonated in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit. The first device took the form of a Vehicle-Bourne IED (VBIED) which was detonated on the street adjacent to the Ministry of Tourism, wounding many people including the Assistant Deputy Minister of Tourism. A few minutes after this device detonated, another device detonated on the street immediately adjacent to the initial blast site. At the time of the blasts, President Macron was staying at the Four Seasons hotel directly across the street from the blast site. Macron was not wounded during the attack, and has not canceled his state visit to Syria.
Analyst Comment: This complex attack was very likely targeting Macron himself, or at least trying to get as close as possible to cause diplomatic trouble. Throughout the region, it's extremely common for terror groups to conduct attacks while foreign dignitaries are visiting, so as to embarrass their political leadership.
Ukraine: Yesterday one of the lead suspects in the Monaco bombing case was found dead. Anastasiia Berezovska was the individual suspected of dropping off the bomb at the residence of Vadym Yermolaiev a few weeks ago. Berezovska was found at an undisclosed location in Ukraine with multiple gunshots to the head. After her death was discovered, an actively-serving member of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MoD confessed to her murder.
Analyst Comment: Very clearly, someone is tying up the loose ends in this case, and doing so very publicly to send a message. Now that the lead suspect in the bombing case is dead, the entire affair is tidied up neatly, and no further investigation can be undertaken regarding who Berezovska was working for.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Concerns are growing regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for several weeks. On June 14th, McConnell was found unconscious on the floor of his home in Capitol Hill after suffering an apparent heart attack. CPR was performed at the scene, and he was transported to a hospital. Apart from those initial details, there is currently no indication of his status beyond unconfirmed rumor.
Analyst Comment: McConnell's health has been extremely concerning over the past few years, with several viral media incidents indicating that he is not well. In this case, three days after his heart attack, his wife Elaine Chao traveled to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. As a result of the timing of this visit, and the extreme secrecy surrounding the health of a man who has been of ailing health for years, concerns are growing regarding McConnell's status. In Kentucky, election law regarding position appointments has recently changed. Instead of the Governor being able to make an appointment for the seat, if a Senator dies in office, a special election is now mandatory. As such if McConnell passes away before the election, a special election would have to be held to fill the vacancy of only a couple of months, before the general election in November.
However, the timing matters. If a Kentucky Senator dies in office (and thus vacates the seat) less than 63 days before the election, a special election would probably not be required and the normal election goes on. In this case, McConnell is not running again this year but the law regarding his seat still applies, so he must remain alive until September 1st, in order to prevent a special election which would allow a third-party candidate to run for his seat.
New York: This morning evacuations were conducted after a high-rise building experienced a partial collapse in midtown Manhattan. The former Pfizer building at 235 E. 42nd St was undergoing major renovations/construction this morning, when approximately 5 floors of the building experienced a partial collapse. A perimeter cordon is currently in place around the building, as pieces of the structure have been falling on the street and sidewalk throughout the morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Persian Gulf, the Ayatollah's funeral has served as a sort of ceasefire-within-a-"ceasefire", and the United States and Iran took the past week to actually stop shooting at each other. During that time, merchant vessels also took the opportunity to slip through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Omani route...something that Iran has repeatedly warned against. During the funeral, Iranian forces let this take place, however as of last night patience ran out and the Iranians have returned to striking commercial vessels for taking this route. So far today, a total of 4x confirmed (and probably one more unconfirmed) merchant vessels have been engaged by Iran for trying to sneak through the Strait. This is the most ships that have been struck since the hot-phase of the war, and these targeting efforts were not the result of ship captains unilaterally changing the route.
Yesterday, the UKMTO directly stated that merchant traffic may take the southern route without coordinating with the Iranians. This statement was issued knowing full well that the Iranians have been warning ships that they must take the Larak Island route. Exactly who made the decision to issue this statement is unclear, but in effect the UKMTO told ships to take a route that they knew would be unsafe, gambling on the Iranians not conducting strikes during the Ayatollah's funeral. Now, the burning hulls of five ships are evidence that this gamble was ill advised. In response to these attacks, the United States has re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports after granting them permission to export their oil a few weeks ago. Other than the sanctions, the United States is likely to conduct the standard retaliation strikes at random targets near Bandar Abbas over the next few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: EXPLOSIONS REPORTED NEAR HOTEL HOUSING FRENCH PRESIDENT DURING STATE VISIT TO DAMASCUS. MONACO BOMBER FOUND DEAD IN UKRAINE. IRAN RESUMES TARGETING OF UNAUTHORIZED TRANSITS OF HORMUZ STRAIT. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING STATUS OF SENATOR MCCONNELL'S HEALTH, COMPLICATING UPCOMING ELECTION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Syria: This morning several explosive devices were detonated in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit. The first device took the form of a Vehicle-Bourne IED (VBIED) which was detonated on the street adjacent to the Ministry of Tourism, wounding many people including the Assistant Deputy Minister of Tourism. A few minutes after this device detonated, another device detonated on the street immediately adjacent to the initial blast site. At the time of the blasts, President Macron was staying at the Four Seasons hotel directly across the street from the blast site. Macron was not wounded during the attack, and has not canceled his state visit to Syria.
Analyst Comment: This complex attack was very likely targeting Macron himself, or at least trying to get as close as possible to cause diplomatic trouble. Throughout the region, it's extremely common for terror groups to conduct attacks while foreign dignitaries are visiting, so as to embarrass their political leadership.
Ukraine: Yesterday one of the lead suspects in the Monaco bombing case was found dead. Anastasiia Berezovska was the individual suspected of dropping off the bomb at the residence of Vadym Yermolaiev a few weeks ago. Berezovska was found at an undisclosed location in Ukraine with multiple gunshots to the head. After her death was discovered, an actively-serving member of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MoD confessed to her murder.
Analyst Comment: Very clearly, someone is tying up the loose ends in this case, and doing so very publicly to send a message. Now that the lead suspect in the bombing case is dead, the entire affair is tidied up neatly, and no further investigation can be undertaken regarding who Berezovska was working for.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Concerns are growing regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for several weeks. On June 14th, McConnell was found unconscious on the floor of his home in Capitol Hill after suffering an apparent heart attack. CPR was performed at the scene, and he was transported to a hospital. Apart from those initial details, there is currently no indication of his status beyond unconfirmed rumor.
Analyst Comment: McConnell's health has been extremely concerning over the past few years, with several viral media incidents indicating that he is not well. In this case, three days after his heart attack, his wife Elaine Chao traveled to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. As a result of the timing of this visit, and the extreme secrecy surrounding the health of a man who has been of ailing health for years, concerns are growing regarding McConnell's status. In Kentucky, election law regarding position appointments has recently changed. Instead of the Governor being able to make an appointment for the seat, if a Senator dies in office, a special election is now mandatory. As such if McConnell passes away before the election, a special election would have to be held to fill the vacancy of only a couple of months, before the general election in November.
However, the timing matters. If a Kentucky Senator dies in office (and thus vacates the seat) less than 63 days before the election, a special election would probably not be required and the normal election goes on. In this case, McConnell is not running again this year but the law regarding his seat still applies, so he must remain alive until September 1st, in order to prevent a special election which would allow a third-party candidate to run for his seat.
New York: This morning evacuations were conducted after a high-rise building experienced a partial collapse in midtown Manhattan. The former Pfizer building at 235 E. 42nd St was undergoing major renovations/construction this morning, when approximately 5 floors of the building experienced a partial collapse. A perimeter cordon is currently in place around the building, as pieces of the structure have been falling on the street and sidewalk throughout the morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Persian Gulf, the Ayatollah's funeral has served as a sort of ceasefire-within-a-"ceasefire", and the United States and Iran took the past week to actually stop shooting at each other. During that time, merchant vessels also took the opportunity to slip through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Omani route...something that Iran has repeatedly warned against. During the funeral, Iranian forces let this take place, however as of last night patience ran out and the Iranians have returned to striking commercial vessels for taking this route. So far today, a total of 4x confirmed (and probably one more unconfirmed) merchant vessels have been engaged by Iran for trying to sneak through the Strait. This is the most ships that have been struck since the hot-phase of the war, and these targeting efforts were not the result of ship captains unilaterally changing the route.
Yesterday, the UKMTO directly stated that merchant traffic may take the southern route without coordinating with the Iranians. This statement was issued knowing full well that the Iranians have been warning ships that they must take the Larak Island route. Exactly who made the decision to issue this statement is unclear, but in effect the UKMTO told ships to take a route that they knew would be unsafe, gambling on the Iranians not conducting strikes during the Ayatollah's funeral. Now, the burning hulls of five ships are evidence that this gamble was ill advised. In response to these attacks, the United States has re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports after granting them permission to export their oil a few weeks ago. Other than the sanctions, the United States is likely to conduct the standard retaliation strikes at random targets near Bandar Abbas over the next few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
2
This week's intel update is out! This week we reflect on the events developing around the world, from wars to disasters, as well as remind ourselves about what this grand national experiment is all about. Happy Independence Day to all, and may we have a prosperous and free future ahead! https://youtu.be/jpybqdcV3j0
//The Wire//1800Z July 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FUNERAL BEGINS IN TEHRAN. IMMOLATION INCIDENT REPORTED IN NEW YORK. DHS REPORTS CYBERATTACK AFFECTING INFORMATION EXCHANGE NETWORK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: This week, the official state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei began, which has drawn large crowds to Tehran. Khamenei's remains will lie in state in Tehran for three days, before a funeral procession is carried out through the streets of Tehran. On July 7, the body is scheduled to be transported to the city of Qom, before various ceremonies are carried out and he's finally buried in his hometown of Mashhad.
Analyst Comment: As nearly all of the upper echelons of Iran's political leadership will be participating in some of these ceremonies, concerns are growing that the Israelis will attempt another series of decapitation strikes during the funeral. Striking the Ayatollah's coffin during the funeral procession just to send a message would also be right up the IDF's alley, but the question remains as to whether the IDF can even manage such an operation so far into Iran at this point. This possibility is pure speculation, however due to the potential for a very serious conflagration to occur once again, this would be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
On a related note, a surge of several tankers was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of the southern Omani route while the Ayatollah's funeral is ongoing. These vessels were probably gambling on the Iranians not wanting to carry out strikes during a period of mourning, while a lot of the senior decision makers are occupied with traveling to Tehran for the funeral. This clever trick is probably a one-time thing, as the Iranians have demonstrated in the past that they will allow this for a couple of days, before they start striking vessels again.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening an immolation incident was reported at the United Nations building, after a protester set himself on fire during a livestream at the main entrance on United Nations Plaza. The individual has been identified as Lobga Rangzen, an activist affiliated with the Tibetan independence movement. Rangzen was eventually extinguished by building security, but later died at an area hospital.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security announced an investigation into an alleged breach and/or cyberattack on their Homeland Security Information Network, an information sharing network for coordinating between various federal agencies. The breach reportedly involved an older unclassified computer system, and was only discovered recently after occurring back in May. This is a developing story at the time of this report, and so far the main primary sources of this breach are two unidentified whistleblowers who leaked the story to the mainstream media. Following this leak, the DHS quietly confirmed that the breach did take place, but no further comment has been made regarding the national security implications of this incident, or who the culprit was.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FUNERAL BEGINS IN TEHRAN. IMMOLATION INCIDENT REPORTED IN NEW YORK. DHS REPORTS CYBERATTACK AFFECTING INFORMATION EXCHANGE NETWORK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: This week, the official state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei began, which has drawn large crowds to Tehran. Khamenei's remains will lie in state in Tehran for three days, before a funeral procession is carried out through the streets of Tehran. On July 7, the body is scheduled to be transported to the city of Qom, before various ceremonies are carried out and he's finally buried in his hometown of Mashhad.
Analyst Comment: As nearly all of the upper echelons of Iran's political leadership will be participating in some of these ceremonies, concerns are growing that the Israelis will attempt another series of decapitation strikes during the funeral. Striking the Ayatollah's coffin during the funeral procession just to send a message would also be right up the IDF's alley, but the question remains as to whether the IDF can even manage such an operation so far into Iran at this point. This possibility is pure speculation, however due to the potential for a very serious conflagration to occur once again, this would be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
On a related note, a surge of several tankers was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of the southern Omani route while the Ayatollah's funeral is ongoing. These vessels were probably gambling on the Iranians not wanting to carry out strikes during a period of mourning, while a lot of the senior decision makers are occupied with traveling to Tehran for the funeral. This clever trick is probably a one-time thing, as the Iranians have demonstrated in the past that they will allow this for a couple of days, before they start striking vessels again.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening an immolation incident was reported at the United Nations building, after a protester set himself on fire during a livestream at the main entrance on United Nations Plaza. The individual has been identified as Lobga Rangzen, an activist affiliated with the Tibetan independence movement. Rangzen was eventually extinguished by building security, but later died at an area hospital.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security announced an investigation into an alleged breach and/or cyberattack on their Homeland Security Information Network, an information sharing network for coordinating between various federal agencies. The breach reportedly involved an older unclassified computer system, and was only discovered recently after occurring back in May. This is a developing story at the time of this report, and so far the main primary sources of this breach are two unidentified whistleblowers who leaked the story to the mainstream media. Following this leak, the DHS quietly confirmed that the breach did take place, but no further comment has been made regarding the national security implications of this incident, or who the culprit was.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
1
//The Wire//2300Z July 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING INCIDENT REPORTED IN THAILAND. POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. GOVERNOR WALZ PARDONS LAOTIAN MIGRANT CONVICTED OF ABUSE, COMPLICATING DEPORTATION. US NAVY HELICOPTER CRASHES IN ARABIAN SEA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Thailand: This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the remote province of Mukdahan, after one individual rammed a vehicle into a group of Buddhist monks who had just departed on a pilgrimage walk on a remote road. A total of 9x monks were killed during the incident, and an unknown number of others wounded.
Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has not been identified, but has been noted as being an 11-year-old child. As a result it's not clear as to if this is genuinely a deliberate action or not. Initially, eyewitness statements claimed it was a deliberate attack, but other eyewitnesses state that the boy was driving too fast and lost control of the vehicle. More generally, attacks on Buddhists on pilgrimage are comparatively rare, but there has been an ongoing conflict to the south of the incident site which has been referred to as the Malay-Muslim Insurgency, which has taken the form of guerilla warfare carried out between factions of Buddhists and Muslims. In Thailand, something as simple as an unrelated child's mistake (though horribly tragic) can always stir up tensions in an already tense region, so this might be something to be aware of for later on.
Middle East: Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon announced an aviation incident which involved an MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter from the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* CSG making an emergency landing feet-wet in the Arabian Sea. Three of the four crew members of the aircraft were rescued immediately after the crash, however the fourth crewmember remains missing.
Analyst Comment: CENTCOM has not confirmed the cause of the incident, however the crash is not believed to be the result of combat damage. The Iranians have not claimed to have targeted a helicopter, nor have there been any engagements over the past 24 hours in the region.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz pardoned Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian man who had been convicted of crimes against children years ago. Vang had been engaging in the traditional Laotian practice of taking an unwilling child bride, and was subsequently arrested and given a deportation order back in 2006. He took a plea deal which allowed him avoid prison completely, and for twenty years has been fighting his deportation case. Yesterday, Gov. Walz approved his pardon request roughly a week before his schedule deportation.
Analyst Comment: It is unclear as to why a state pardon would have any bearing whatsoever with federal immigration law, but the statements made by Acting DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis suggest that the DHS is not keen to press the issue at the federal level. The DHS press release on this case expressed outrage, but no action to actually continue following through on the deportation.
North Carolina: Following the release of court documents yesterday, details have come to light pertaining to a probable attempted terror attack that took place on Sunday in High Point. On Sunday, a member of the security team spotted a suspicious individual approaching Wesley Memorial Methodist Church during the morning services. One suspect arrived in the church parking lot wearing body armor and camouflaged clothing, prompting the attention of a member of the church security staff. Upon approaching the individual, the security guard questioned the suspect, who stated that he was a police officer. As the security team member was an off-duty police officer himself, he instantly knew that the man was lying, and immediately took the man into custody. After more authorities arrived on scene, a search of the suspect's vehicle revealed two flamethrowers, two crossbows, a few hundred rounds of ammunition (unknown type), as well as a small collection of narcotics. The suspect has been identified as William S. Milliken III, a native of Thomasville.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential church terrorism incident, no motive or explanation for the suspicious incident was noted, however incidents like this are extremely common in the world of counterterrorism. Individuals determined to carry out acts of terrorism are frequently known to conduct "dry runs" before the actual attack, so as to both work out the final logistics of their plan, but also to get up the gumption to follow through with the attack. It is not clear as to if this individual had any connection to the church, or had visited the church beforehand. However, arriving exactly during services on Sunday in a full tactical loadout, as primitive as it was, is not something that normally indicates a dry run. Though it is speculation, it's possible that the suspect did not know that the church had security on site, or that the one responder would have been as on-the-ball as he was. Concerning motive, nothing has been disclosed. A would-be assailant who shows up to a terrorist attack with 500x rounds of ammunition but no firearm is an interesting data point, and the choice of crossbows and flamethrowers as an attack vector indicates that a proper firearm probably could not be procured. More details may come to light as this case progresses, but even based on the initial details, this is another reminder for religious institutions to remain vigilant and report any suspicious observations to authorities.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING INCIDENT REPORTED IN THAILAND. POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. GOVERNOR WALZ PARDONS LAOTIAN MIGRANT CONVICTED OF ABUSE, COMPLICATING DEPORTATION. US NAVY HELICOPTER CRASHES IN ARABIAN SEA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Thailand: This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the remote province of Mukdahan, after one individual rammed a vehicle into a group of Buddhist monks who had just departed on a pilgrimage walk on a remote road. A total of 9x monks were killed during the incident, and an unknown number of others wounded.
Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has not been identified, but has been noted as being an 11-year-old child. As a result it's not clear as to if this is genuinely a deliberate action or not. Initially, eyewitness statements claimed it was a deliberate attack, but other eyewitnesses state that the boy was driving too fast and lost control of the vehicle. More generally, attacks on Buddhists on pilgrimage are comparatively rare, but there has been an ongoing conflict to the south of the incident site which has been referred to as the Malay-Muslim Insurgency, which has taken the form of guerilla warfare carried out between factions of Buddhists and Muslims. In Thailand, something as simple as an unrelated child's mistake (though horribly tragic) can always stir up tensions in an already tense region, so this might be something to be aware of for later on.
Middle East: Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon announced an aviation incident which involved an MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter from the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* CSG making an emergency landing feet-wet in the Arabian Sea. Three of the four crew members of the aircraft were rescued immediately after the crash, however the fourth crewmember remains missing.
Analyst Comment: CENTCOM has not confirmed the cause of the incident, however the crash is not believed to be the result of combat damage. The Iranians have not claimed to have targeted a helicopter, nor have there been any engagements over the past 24 hours in the region.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz pardoned Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian man who had been convicted of crimes against children years ago. Vang had been engaging in the traditional Laotian practice of taking an unwilling child bride, and was subsequently arrested and given a deportation order back in 2006. He took a plea deal which allowed him avoid prison completely, and for twenty years has been fighting his deportation case. Yesterday, Gov. Walz approved his pardon request roughly a week before his schedule deportation.
Analyst Comment: It is unclear as to why a state pardon would have any bearing whatsoever with federal immigration law, but the statements made by Acting DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis suggest that the DHS is not keen to press the issue at the federal level. The DHS press release on this case expressed outrage, but no action to actually continue following through on the deportation.
North Carolina: Following the release of court documents yesterday, details have come to light pertaining to a probable attempted terror attack that took place on Sunday in High Point. On Sunday, a member of the security team spotted a suspicious individual approaching Wesley Memorial Methodist Church during the morning services. One suspect arrived in the church parking lot wearing body armor and camouflaged clothing, prompting the attention of a member of the church security staff. Upon approaching the individual, the security guard questioned the suspect, who stated that he was a police officer. As the security team member was an off-duty police officer himself, he instantly knew that the man was lying, and immediately took the man into custody. After more authorities arrived on scene, a search of the suspect's vehicle revealed two flamethrowers, two crossbows, a few hundred rounds of ammunition (unknown type), as well as a small collection of narcotics. The suspect has been identified as William S. Milliken III, a native of Thomasville.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential church terrorism incident, no motive or explanation for the suspicious incident was noted, however incidents like this are extremely common in the world of counterterrorism. Individuals determined to carry out acts of terrorism are frequently known to conduct "dry runs" before the actual attack, so as to both work out the final logistics of their plan, but also to get up the gumption to follow through with the attack. It is not clear as to if this individual had any connection to the church, or had visited the church beforehand. However, arriving exactly during services on Sunday in a full tactical loadout, as primitive as it was, is not something that normally indicates a dry run. Though it is speculation, it's possible that the suspect did not know that the church had security on site, or that the one responder would have been as on-the-ball as he was. Concerning motive, nothing has been disclosed. A would-be assailant who shows up to a terrorist attack with 500x rounds of ammunition but no firearm is an interesting data point, and the choice of crossbows and flamethrowers as an attack vector indicates that a proper firearm probably could not be procured. More details may come to light as this case progresses, but even based on the initial details, this is another reminder for religious institutions to remain vigilant and report any suspicious observations to authorities.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//