Black mirror by techbros getting a real life pushback
#ai #wearables

Took a new position today to bridge AI-energy.

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente - Spanish solar PV utility, transforming to EU datacenter play $SLR. In at $18.4

Solaria owns private network, substations, 3GW of mostly solar PV power, that rapidly scales to 4GW.

EV= 3.9B

Typical datacenter regions Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin - are grid and space constrained.

Spain and Solaria wins here. Peninsula well connected to inter-atlantic cables, while regulations allow for direct plug and play, circumventing grid connection queues

Last year, first deal of its kind inked w/ Merlin.

They invest aggressively into scaling + BESS (batteries) at every solar park, to increase margins, availability. Based on their presentation BESS payback time is ~3 years.

Balance sheet considerably levered x5 net debt/EBITDA, incl. IFRS 16 land lease.

However they have strengthened balance sheet after Q1, raising 300M at 24€ (~10% share capital increase; of which 3.85% sold treasury shares)

Technically risky, but potential reversal forming.

In 26'Q1 call, CEO Arturo was clearly holding back good news on assets monetization, deals for capital markets day sometime in H2.

Here's the taste in transcript screenshot.

Thanks to @origoinvest for idea!

Solar generated record 25% of EU power in June with Germany, Spain and Poland leading the race.

Korea Financial Supervisory Service: As of July 13, the cumulative total of over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market triggered margin calls, with approximately 320,000–360,000 accounts fully forcibly liquidated by brokers

Nature is healing. $KOSPI

Recent excess compute semi bear case narrative violations:
-Facebook starts a Canadian datacenter build
-China to allow its AI Labs purchase $NVDA H200s $MU

Macro on consumer spending. While we often hear K shaped economy, that does not support spending data. More in PNC research thread.
https://x.com/BrianLe_Blanc/status/2069779330218012845

Micron and Anthropic Announce Strategic Agreement:
-supply LTA
-Claude adoption at $MU
-tighter design-feedback loop (other labs might follow)
-Investment in Anthropic series H

Cute, but no numbers in annoucement. Sure analysts will want more details on call.

"I love inflation"- trump

Inflating the deficits - their only solution.. because you can't slow the stealing or private military building.

For the full-year 2026, we expect our CapEx to be in the range of $180B to $190B. And looking further ahead to 2027, we expect a significant increase in our CapEx compared to 2026.” - Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi
@TheTranscript_

Two weeks ago neither Grok nor Gemini could not point to weakness in $CME. Finally I stumbled upon it myself. Hyperliquid $HYPE, Kalshi crypto perpetuals approved by CTFC.
Take:
-crypto affects 10-15% of $CME revenue
-institutionals can't use perps, unsuitable for hedging
- $CME CEO Terry Duffy hinted at legal action against $SPGI with which CME has a JV, that controls S&P 500 IP. JV did not consult w/ CME for approving trade.xyz indexes
-my impression - Kalshi and $HYPE had been running rounds lobbying, getting fast approvals
Overall, some of my assets got hammered lately:
-CME down, which was supposed to hedge vol, despite May breaking new volume records
- $BTC down - market teaching Saylor a lesson not to use leverage
- $FIGR down in tandem w/ crypto; despite having 0 btc exposure business wise

Follow up on Vilvi Group (VLP1L);. Notes from recent call:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKPIBz0XUAABkG2?format=jpg&name=large

-CEO expects a strong remaining 2026 9 months
-Long term 8-10% EBITDA margin (25'H2 - trough of milk cycle - 5.7% + 3 plants coming online)
-new Bauska cheese plant - highly automated; cost competitive
-plans ramp MPK unit sales x2 in next yrs
-new 18-19M biotechnological investment to extract new proteins
-[will be] "significant contribution to our results"
-consumer trends around proteins + doctors prescribing Ozempic often recommend proteins, drives incremental demand
-dividend policy remains at least 25% of net profit
-clear MPK integration plan, progressing well. Plan concludes 2027 April, with visible results already
-admits high financial debt level, which is normal in growth phase

@sidecarcap on portfolio management:

"Position sizing and diversification are the same conversation.

Investors need to cast a net wide enough to maximize the odds of catching a big winner, which is never obvious in advance.

But each position also has to be large enough to move the needle. A stock that goes up 10x won’t matter if it started as a tiny position.

The goal is to find the middle ground where your mistakes are survivable and your successes are meaningful.

That’s the game."