really appreciate your new live streams. keep up the good work!

thanks! just two questions...
1. what strike price do you usually buy mstr call options at? around the money or out of the money?
2. would you still be bearish if the the ISM new orders had come in at over 55?

what's the best way to send in questions?

So in summary, the reasons you're now bearish are:
1. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is predicting a -2.8% GDP contraction for Q1 2025
2. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 to 50.3 and ISM new orders plunged from 55.1 to 48.6
3. Treasury yields are declining, particularly the two-year yield dropping to 3.92%, indicating that the bond market expects lower growth and inflation
4. Tech stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Nvidia) are looking toppy, and some are rolling over
5. Money is flowing into utilities (XLU) and long bonds, traditional defensive assets that outperform when growth slows
6. Disinflation is happening too quickly which may signal an earnings slowdown

I did find it interesting that one of the datapoints you looked at was the CME fedwatch probability for a rate cut. In the video this was 13% but it's already back down to 7% (I think it was even 5% a few hours ago)

why does it recover so quickly? just give me a couple of days to find some more fiat.

Yeah, I feel like you misunderstand how a negative income tax works. There would be absolutely zero invasion of privacy, because there is no longer a requirement for eligibility. As with a UBI, everyone would get a payment (although for most people it would simply be a credit towards their income tax bill).

The main advantages of a negative income tax are:
- A flat income tax rate (I won't go into the many benefits of a flat income tax rate, but there are a lot)
- Elimination of "welfare cliffs"—where benefits are cut off once someone starts earning, discouraging work
- Reduction of government administrative costs by eliminating eligibility tests
- no retirement age - the UBI would simply continue into old age. You can choose to top it up with additional work or investment income

It's surprising how close the implementation of this mirrors the actual current situation in Australia (see chart below in AUD with an annual UBI of $19,830 - equivalent to the current social security payment - and a flat tax rate of 47% - equivalent to the current top rate of income tax). Unsure how it would look in other countries, but I suspect the figures can be tweaked to align.

what's the difference between a UBI and a negative income tax?