Damus
Bootleg Macro Pleb profile picture
Bootleg Macro Pleb
@tech_pleb

Amateur Macro data analyst. Bitcoiner.

lnbc1p37n02dpp5jslrn2esxl6kzl4y2hgtutn2edkxrvhwnrjguhw2dlh0366p9dgsdqqcqzzgxqyz5vqrzjqwnvuc0u4txn35cafc7w94gxvq5p3cu9dd95f7hlrh0fvs46wpvhdks72ruumz6emgqqqqryqqqqthqqpyrzjqw8c7yfutqqy3kz8662fxutjvef7q2ujsxtt45csu0k688lkzu3ldks72ruumz6emgqqqqryqqqqthqqpysp55xwg9n3xk5pyu5w3mljtmmze7my7z37en9am7sevrehen5cxwuzs9qypqsq5r7fuaq4z0cdjq5vw7a0rlqtz283hxa93nkmz5jyylr7aa7g5ewsrausjgwk3u29j7x8k9knrxy78e4xu4s3nw5ftxn79aq8wh4w2yspqgy3jylnurl
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Recent Notes

Sovereign Matt · 145w
Tweets no longer show impressions now for unverified users. Guessing that’s by design meaning unverified users will get almost no engagement on twitter now unless their give blood and tax receipts t...
Bootleg Macro Pleb profile picture
Haven't been on nostr for a couple months. I'm very impressed with the development since then, content getting way better, looks like nostr is on the up. Got no followers though, do me a favor and help out a fellow pleb with a follow?
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LIVEFOREVER · 145w
Followed 🤙
The Fishcake (nostr.build) · 145w
Followed 🐶🐾🫂💜🔥
Cameri🐦‍🔥 · 145w
Welcome home
Derek Ross · 145w
Welcome back, my dude. We're always building and iterating here. It's always getting better. 🫂🤙🏻💜
AlcoB · 145w
Followed
⚡️Apex⚡️ · 145w
“Get in, loser… we’re doing Nostr/Bitcoin” Followed.
ricardo · 145w
Followed 👍
Sovereign Matt · 158w
I can’t find any tbh. Pretty crazy.
Bootleg Macro Pleb · 159w
I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest ord...
Bootleg Macro Pleb profile picture
Loans are not QE. Taking a loan puts a liability on your balance sheet. Figure below illustrates how BTFP loan would work. There is no increase in the equity of the bank. No economic stimulus unles they are mad & YOLO that loan into assets. QE on the other hand is like “here’s $100 for your 30Y bond of $60 value, keep the change ser…



Bootleg Macro Pleb profile picture
I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.

See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.





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Bootleg Macro Pleb · 159w
Plenty of snake oil salesmen on twitter are promoting that this bal. sheet expansion is QE already. They are trying to drum up exit liquidity. Here's an example: https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1639272598985924608?s=20
Bootleg Macro Pleb · 159w
Loans are not QE. Taking a loan puts a liability on your balance sheet. Figure below illustrates how BTFP loan would work. There is no increase in the equity of the bank. No economic stimulus unles they are mad & YOLO that loan into assets. QE on the other hand is like “here’s $100 for your 30Y ...