@tech_pleb
Amateur Macro data analyst. Bitcoiner.
No relay list published yet.
Recent Notes
nostr usage remains low:
even on a day where twitter experiences outages globally, less than 9,000 people create any data (posts, likes, dms, settings changes etc)
that is still lower than usage fig...
Let's see the x-axis on that chart, can't see shit, we'll have to take your word for it.
Too many people have given Elon a pass. Don't give him a pass.
He's a marketer, not a founder or an engineer. He didn't found PayPal or Tesla; he bought into them early. He's good at selling narrativ...
Damn I was a musk fan but I trust Lyn more than Musk so he dead to me now.
I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest ord...
Loans are not QE. Taking a loan puts a liability on your balance sheet. Figure below illustrates how BTFP loan would work. There is no increase in the equity of the bank. No economic stimulus unles they are mad & YOLO that loan into assets. QE on the other hand is like “here’s $100 for your 30Y bond of $60 value, keep the change ser…
I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest ord...
Plenty of snake oil salesmen on twitter are promoting that this bal. sheet expansion is QE already. They are trying to drum up exit liquidity.
Here's an example:
https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1639272598985924608?s=20
Here's an example:
https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1639272598985924608?s=20
I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.
See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.
See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.
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