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Mamdani's New York: West Side Homeless Camp Stretching 12 Blocks Now Allegedly Stealing City Power
Mamdani's New York: West Side Homeless Camp Stretching 12 Blocks Now Allegedly Stealing City Power
You've likely seen it if you've the nearby Hell's Kitchen entrance to the Lincoln Tunnel...
What began as a growing homeless encampment on Manhattan's West Side has now escalated to alleged utility theft, https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/us-news/vagrants-wire-nycs-growing-intrepid-museum-homeless-camp-with-electricity/.
According to reports, one resident of the sprawling encampment was seen Tuesday tapping into city electrical lines to power a makeshift shelter near West 34th Street between 11th and 12th Avenue. The camp now stretches roughly a dozen blocks, from 34th Street to 46th Street near the Intrepid Museum, and has become an increasingly visible flashpoint for residents, commuters, and tourists.
The https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/us-news/vagrants-wire-nycs-growing-intrepid-museum-homeless-camp-with-electricity/ that bus drivers and local workers say the encampment has continued to expand over the past several weeks, with tents multiplying and sidewalks becoming increasingly obstructed.
"It's been almost a month now and it gets a little bigger every time I come back," one FlixBus driver told the New York Post. He said garbage piled along the sidewalk forces passengers waiting for buses into the street, while some people living in the encampment have reportedly approached travelers asking for money. He added that complaints to city officials have produced little visible response.
Police officers were seen Tuesday ordering the individual accused of siphoning electricity to disconnect from the utility line. Elsewhere along the encampment, officers reportedly seized extension cords and power strips from another makeshift shelter. Despite those actions, there appears to be little expectation that the enforcement will significantly reduce the camp's size.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani has defended the city's broader approach, saying the priority is moving homeless individuals into shelters and ultimately permanent housing rather than simply dispersing encampments from one neighborhood to another. Asked specifically about the West Side encampment, he said the city would review the situation.
Despite growing attention, reports indicate that no sanitation crews or homeless outreach teams had been seen at the site in the days following news coverage of the encampment.
The camp itself has reportedly continued to grow, with additional tents appearing over the weekend. Reports also claim that the area has attracted people struggling with addiction, along with sex workers, adding to concerns from nearby businesses and residents who say conditions continue to deteriorate.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/west-side-nyc-homeless-camp-now-allegedly-stealing-city-power
Mamdani's New York: West Side Homeless Camp Stretching 12 Blocks Now Allegedly Stealing City Power
You've likely seen it if you've the nearby Hell's Kitchen entrance to the Lincoln Tunnel...
What began as a growing homeless encampment on Manhattan's West Side has now escalated to alleged utility theft, https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/us-news/vagrants-wire-nycs-growing-intrepid-museum-homeless-camp-with-electricity/.
According to reports, one resident of the sprawling encampment was seen Tuesday tapping into city electrical lines to power a makeshift shelter near West 34th Street between 11th and 12th Avenue. The camp now stretches roughly a dozen blocks, from 34th Street to 46th Street near the Intrepid Museum, and has become an increasingly visible flashpoint for residents, commuters, and tourists.
The https://nypost.com/2026/07/14/us-news/vagrants-wire-nycs-growing-intrepid-museum-homeless-camp-with-electricity/ that bus drivers and local workers say the encampment has continued to expand over the past several weeks, with tents multiplying and sidewalks becoming increasingly obstructed.
"It's been almost a month now and it gets a little bigger every time I come back," one FlixBus driver told the New York Post. He said garbage piled along the sidewalk forces passengers waiting for buses into the street, while some people living in the encampment have reportedly approached travelers asking for money. He added that complaints to city officials have produced little visible response.
Police officers were seen Tuesday ordering the individual accused of siphoning electricity to disconnect from the utility line. Elsewhere along the encampment, officers reportedly seized extension cords and power strips from another makeshift shelter. Despite those actions, there appears to be little expectation that the enforcement will significantly reduce the camp's size.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani has defended the city's broader approach, saying the priority is moving homeless individuals into shelters and ultimately permanent housing rather than simply dispersing encampments from one neighborhood to another. Asked specifically about the West Side encampment, he said the city would review the situation.
Despite growing attention, reports indicate that no sanitation crews or homeless outreach teams had been seen at the site in the days following news coverage of the encampment.
The camp itself has reportedly continued to grow, with additional tents appearing over the weekend. Reports also claim that the area has attracted people struggling with addiction, along with sex workers, adding to concerns from nearby businesses and residents who say conditions continue to deteriorate.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/west-side-nyc-homeless-camp-now-allegedly-stealing-city-power
Overloaded: From Trinkets To Compute And Market Structure
Overloaded: From Trinkets To Compute And Market Structure
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Last weekend we published that the market was sitting on https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/inflection-point-overload/?asmac=80707db4-1ec4-4bc6-a61b-1583404d4616. We were concerned that many of the inflection points would resolve themselves negatively for the market:
-
Iran, which we didn’t even give the full “inflection” point treatment to, has deteriorated. While Brent finished the week at almost $90, up from just above $70, it seemed to be a “side story” at this stage. However, with the news of the U.S. service members killed on Friday in Jordan, the question becomes how this alters the U.S. strategy to pressure Iran to stop its attacks on shipping in the Strait and return to the table to continue negotiations.
-
AI Spend was the most important inflection point and that seems to be resolving itself rather negatively with the Philly Semi Index down 10% on the week! More on this later.
-
Russia/Ukraine. General (ret.) Spider Marks, Rachel Washburn, and I spent a lot of time talking about this conflict. I continue to be optimistic, maybe even a bit more optimistic than the consensus Geopolitical Intelligence Group view, but that’s my take.
-
Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade did little last week, but strength in the Yen remains a risk for the broader market.
-
Crypto and DATCos. With the volatility in other markets last week, the stability in this space was noticeable. The jury is still out on which way this inflection point will resolve itself, but the case that it is forming a solid base is growing.
-
Inflation. As one of the last people looking for not just cuts before hikes, but also cuts as early as September, Tuesday’s CPI numbers helped a lot! Some would argue that “Core” remains high, but it is artificially inflated by the “mysterious” way we choose to represent shelter inflation. (Yes, I’m hoping to get some call, out of the blue, to help re-evaluate what data decisions should be based on). Unfortunately, the resumption of increased hostilities in the Middle East and the limited amount of oil left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve don’t help my take on inflation continuing to decline. Though any material slowing in the AI Spend would push the Fed (on both inflation and jobs) to consider cutting. Last weekend (according to WIRP) the market was pricing in 1.5 hikes by the end of the December meeting. It is now at 1.26 hikes. I think that expectation will continue to come down. Will consider this week a “decent” win as expectations for hikes declined even as oil prices ripped higher.
The risk that these “inflection points” are at risk of overloading markets remains high!
SPCH SPCF LOFF SPCU SPAL SPCL SPCM
This may set a “new low” in terms of gobbledygook for a heading in the T-Report. I’m hoping you are wondering what the heck triggered such an insane looking heading!
Those are the ticker symbols for 7 ETFs that provide 2X the daily return of SPCX! I’ve listed them in order from largest to smallest. In total they have “only” about $420 million in AUM (it was probably higher before most of these ETFs saw a decline of over 50% since their highs). SPCL tracked a larger “index” pre-IPO but converted to SPCX only with the IPO, presumably to be “first to market” on the SPCX-leveraged IPO. In all fairness, there are at least 4 ETFs allowing investors to short (on a leveraged basis) SPCX.
I’m kind of reminded of some vague saying about rabbits. You start with 2 (presumably male and female) and wind up with a LOT of rabbits very quickly!
Does one IPO really need to inspire at least 10 single stock ETFs?
Apparently (I was too lazy to pull up the tickers) there are already a half dozen or so single stock ETFs that track the newly launched SKHY ADR.
It is already a complex process to price an IPO. That process can be made more difficult when only a portion of the float is sold initially. I have zero clue how any of these single stock ETFs help in terms of allocation of capital, or price discovery! If anything, they tend to amplify moves, as the leverage creates forced end of day buying or selling! That is the opposite of helping price discovery or establishing orderly markets.
I’m assuming any 4 letter combination of CHAT, OPEN, LLM, etc. has been purchased/registered in the “ticker” world. CHTU (Chat Up) or CHTD (Chat Down) seem obvious ones to own, to sell to an ETF manager (though, again, it is likely that they are already taken). Kind of reminiscent of when people were buying up domain names hoping to sell them.
I probably ranted too long to make the point that leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) tend to amplify moves in both directions!
SOXL
We might as well transition from market structure to the AI spend, with SOXL.
3X leverage on the NYSE Semi Index, with $19 billion of AUM, tends to amplify moves.
One “characteristic” of these market-structure impacting ETFs (in my opinion, and one I’m certainly guilty of) is that:
- When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes higher, all the credit is attributed to the idea. It is all ixnay on the market structure when the market structure is helping support a move.
- When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes lower, XYZ (whoever that may be) is quick to pull out the “technicals” or “market structure” card, as the culprit.
Leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) and Zero-Day to Expiration Options (0DTE and other short-term options) all tend to amplify moves. It is the nature of the beast. If there is potential for stop losses to be triggered, the amplification effect is even more powerful.
Is it time to buy the dip? If the parabolic move higher in the various semi-conductor indices owes some thanks to market structure (and I think it does), that market structure may have shifted from a tailwind to a headwind (or worse, a tailwind in the other direction).
From Cheap Trinkets to Cheap Compute?
I find myself admonishing myself and cautioning clients to put China circa 2005 out of their mind. The argument is basically that yes, China used to make “cheap” trinkets. That much of what they made was of lower quality and fell apart. No one really picked up an item that had a “Made in China” label and thought it was fine engineering!
In general, that just isn’t true in 2026. China makes high-quality components. China makes high-quality products. Intellectual Property ownership has shifted. Through a variety of methods (ranging from companies willingly exposing themselves to Chinese companies to access via less savory means), China has closed the gap on IP. In some areas, China is ahead on IP.
I admit, I checked out a BYD showroom when I was in Munich last week (please try not to judge how I occupy my free time ). The vehicles looked kind of cool and I already had decent expectations, unlike I would have had a few years ago.
Is Cheap Compute the “New” China 2005 Story?
I’m not sure why I say “2005,” but I do (I hope it gets the point across that we are talking about what China was like a couple of decades ago, when they really started to dominate global trade).
My take is:
- China wedged their foot in the door by making some things at cheaper prices than anyone else could.
- China was willing to accept things, like pollution and horrible labor conditions, to do that.
We ceded more and more manufacturing to China, and they got better and better at it.
- China Inc. ensured that the Chinese government and Chinese corporations were in “sync,” making it easier to coordinate their push into global markets.
Unfair advantages at home, flooding markets to lower prices abroad, etc., were tools in their arsenal to dominate global manufacturing.
Over time, they made the shift from Made in China to Made by China:
- Selling your brands makes more money for your country and companies than just making someone else’s brands.
Globally, companies now compete with China on a much more equal footing, in terms of product quality, while China has the ability to work as China Inc. (typically an advantage).
That has played a role in our construction of the ProSec theme, which we provided a mid-year update on.
Increasingly, I’m concerned that we may be at a “2005” moment in compute?
General (ret.) Groen discussed this and much more with me on a call this week. I will paraphrase much of what was discussed:
- Are Chinese LLMs (and AI in general) as good as U.S. versions?
In general, no. Yes, it made big news on Friday, when a Chinese model did very well on some specific benchmark tests. For all we know, it was created/trained specifically for some benchmarks, which means it will do very well on those tests, but not necessarily perform well in the “wild.”
There are allegations and questions about how Chinese models attempt to train themselves on U.S. models, greatly reducing the cost and timing of training. Bad if true, but can it be stopped?
I’m told the politically correct term for this sort of “training” is to “distill” their models.
- Is China selling compute cheaper than U.S. compute is being sold for?
Yes, potentially 5 to 10 times cheaper. This is where I keep circling back to my “2005” date. Were dinky cars made in China as good as elsewhere? Ummm, I guess if you take out lead paint concerns and other things, sure, but the reality was we all kind of “knew” that there were issues with them. But you could buy a pack of 5 for the price of 1 made elsewhere, and the decision got more complex (apologies to Spider, who wanted me to use snow globes, but I decided to stick with dinky cars).
I do NOT have TikTok installed. I’ve only been on TEMU twice in my life. I haven’t even been tempted to try one of the Chinese models (and those of you who know me know I’m easily tempted). Yet, kind of like the dinky cars, you can see the appeal.
- The Half-Life of AI model domination seems to be shrinking. Probably an overly complicated (on my part) way of saying that AI is advancing rapidly. Every time you look at the benchmarks, there are models that have risen to the top of the charts that I barely knew existed (and I’m paying some attention).
Is AI able to generate new iterations of AI even faster? If you were, say, 3 generations behind, can you get to 1 generation behind extremely quickly? Seems plausible, especially if you are willing (or able) to “cut corners” on training?
- Electricity. Does the U.S. have the electricity generation capacity to feed the demand for AI (and the general public)? Do we have the ability to get that power from where it is generated to where it needs to be (the grid)? How do we compare to China on that front?
While I don’t have the details, it seems on the surface that China has more capability for “plug and play” on the AI front than the U.S. does. Electricity, energy production, and transfer are near the TOP OF THE ProSec list for a reason.
- NIMBY. We have discussed the AI Revolution as much as anyone (I think). We have been arguing that Data Center and AI construction (and electricity and to a lesser extent water) would be a major political issue in 2028 or sooner! No idea that it would be an issue that is defining some primaries already! New York State seems to be imposing a 1-year moratorium. I haven’t checked how that will work, but the fact that it is a talking point tells us something.
The AI industry needs to do better on community outreach. On top of everything else, there are National Security concerns at play. I’m not sure how the industry, or the national security apparatus, changes the direction in the U.S., but they need to increase their efforts.
There are plenty of areas building and pitching for more data centers and AI, so we are a long way from being out of the game, but we need to do a lot to not only protect the lead but also add to the lead (maybe the English coach could have applied that logic to the last 30 minutes as well).
I’m pretty sure that there is no equivalent of NIMBY in China. There are some things that one culture has that another culture doesn’t have, but at least there is some understanding of why you have that thing, or think that way. I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of people in China would just stare at you blankly, bemused by the concept of NIMBY getting in the way.
Bottom Line
Many of the “inflection” points have demonstrated a clear direction to which way they are headed, but with everything going on, expect more downside for the markets. DeepSeek was a moment. Treating cheap compute like manufacturing was treated circa 2005 is NOT a “moment.” I’m trying to avoid getting “sucked into the hype of the moment,” and wish I’d written the section on cheap compute Wednesday morning, before the recent news hit (we’d look a bit more proactive, rather than reactive), but I didn’t. The AI spend is at risk on multiple fronts, and while I expect earnings to be important, it now seems clear that even strong earnings, with very visible, very strong guidance for years to come, might not be enough! Last weekend, my perception was that earnings could propel sectors, especially the “compute” sector, higher, but I’m less convinced of that now. The story on “compute credit” seems to have deteriorated, even though we think it is overdone. It does seem like we might need a “debt diet” moment, where some company takes steps to make creditors happy, and finds that their stock responds positively to that action. While the Middle East is not helpful for lower inflation, any slowdown in the AI spend would be (though it would be awful for the economy). While I’m loath to end with a chart, today we are going to end with a chart.
While the Nasdaq 100 has been in a range for the past few weeks and has started moving lower, the S&P 500 equal weight index has been grinding higher and is extremely close to its all-time highs. In some ways it seems “crazy” to think that the S&P 500 equal weight and the Nasdaq 100 should have similar returns (we saw the post-Liberation Day rally in the Nasdaq 100), but finally the two indices closed the gap (noticeably the separation closed when both indices were moving lower).
Who knows, by Monday, the President may have sent something on Truth Social to change all of this (he controls the Iran narrative, and he did push back on the New York data center moratorium). If he does, we should find out at the same time as everyone else, because I don’t think “fast access” on Truth Social has been implemented yet (Trump Media Subscription Plan).
This should be an interesting week. Buy the dip, or get bearish? Of all the things listed, the concept of “cheap” compute from China concerns me the most!
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/overloaded-trinkets-compute-and-market-structure
Overloaded: From Trinkets To Compute And Market Structure
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
Last weekend we published that the market was sitting on https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/inflection-point-overload/?asmac=80707db4-1ec4-4bc6-a61b-1583404d4616. We were concerned that many of the inflection points would resolve themselves negatively for the market:
-
Iran, which we didn’t even give the full “inflection” point treatment to, has deteriorated. While Brent finished the week at almost $90, up from just above $70, it seemed to be a “side story” at this stage. However, with the news of the U.S. service members killed on Friday in Jordan, the question becomes how this alters the U.S. strategy to pressure Iran to stop its attacks on shipping in the Strait and return to the table to continue negotiations.
-
AI Spend was the most important inflection point and that seems to be resolving itself rather negatively with the Philly Semi Index down 10% on the week! More on this later.
-
Russia/Ukraine. General (ret.) Spider Marks, Rachel Washburn, and I spent a lot of time talking about this conflict. I continue to be optimistic, maybe even a bit more optimistic than the consensus Geopolitical Intelligence Group view, but that’s my take.
-
Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade did little last week, but strength in the Yen remains a risk for the broader market.
-
Crypto and DATCos. With the volatility in other markets last week, the stability in this space was noticeable. The jury is still out on which way this inflection point will resolve itself, but the case that it is forming a solid base is growing.
-
Inflation. As one of the last people looking for not just cuts before hikes, but also cuts as early as September, Tuesday’s CPI numbers helped a lot! Some would argue that “Core” remains high, but it is artificially inflated by the “mysterious” way we choose to represent shelter inflation. (Yes, I’m hoping to get some call, out of the blue, to help re-evaluate what data decisions should be based on). Unfortunately, the resumption of increased hostilities in the Middle East and the limited amount of oil left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve don’t help my take on inflation continuing to decline. Though any material slowing in the AI Spend would push the Fed (on both inflation and jobs) to consider cutting. Last weekend (according to WIRP) the market was pricing in 1.5 hikes by the end of the December meeting. It is now at 1.26 hikes. I think that expectation will continue to come down. Will consider this week a “decent” win as expectations for hikes declined even as oil prices ripped higher.
The risk that these “inflection points” are at risk of overloading markets remains high!
SPCH SPCF LOFF SPCU SPAL SPCL SPCM
This may set a “new low” in terms of gobbledygook for a heading in the T-Report. I’m hoping you are wondering what the heck triggered such an insane looking heading!
Those are the ticker symbols for 7 ETFs that provide 2X the daily return of SPCX! I’ve listed them in order from largest to smallest. In total they have “only” about $420 million in AUM (it was probably higher before most of these ETFs saw a decline of over 50% since their highs). SPCL tracked a larger “index” pre-IPO but converted to SPCX only with the IPO, presumably to be “first to market” on the SPCX-leveraged IPO. In all fairness, there are at least 4 ETFs allowing investors to short (on a leveraged basis) SPCX.
I’m kind of reminded of some vague saying about rabbits. You start with 2 (presumably male and female) and wind up with a LOT of rabbits very quickly!
Does one IPO really need to inspire at least 10 single stock ETFs?
Apparently (I was too lazy to pull up the tickers) there are already a half dozen or so single stock ETFs that track the newly launched SKHY ADR.
It is already a complex process to price an IPO. That process can be made more difficult when only a portion of the float is sold initially. I have zero clue how any of these single stock ETFs help in terms of allocation of capital, or price discovery! If anything, they tend to amplify moves, as the leverage creates forced end of day buying or selling! That is the opposite of helping price discovery or establishing orderly markets.
I’m assuming any 4 letter combination of CHAT, OPEN, LLM, etc. has been purchased/registered in the “ticker” world. CHTU (Chat Up) or CHTD (Chat Down) seem obvious ones to own, to sell to an ETF manager (though, again, it is likely that they are already taken). Kind of reminiscent of when people were buying up domain names hoping to sell them.
I probably ranted too long to make the point that leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) tend to amplify moves in both directions!
SOXL
We might as well transition from market structure to the AI spend, with SOXL.
3X leverage on the NYSE Semi Index, with $19 billion of AUM, tends to amplify moves.
One “characteristic” of these market-structure impacting ETFs (in my opinion, and one I’m certainly guilty of) is that:
- When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes higher, all the credit is attributed to the idea. It is all ixnay on the market structure when the market structure is helping support a move.
- When a stock or sector that XYZ recommends goes lower, XYZ (whoever that may be) is quick to pull out the “technicals” or “market structure” card, as the culprit.
Leveraged ETFs (single stock and index) and Zero-Day to Expiration Options (0DTE and other short-term options) all tend to amplify moves. It is the nature of the beast. If there is potential for stop losses to be triggered, the amplification effect is even more powerful.
Is it time to buy the dip? If the parabolic move higher in the various semi-conductor indices owes some thanks to market structure (and I think it does), that market structure may have shifted from a tailwind to a headwind (or worse, a tailwind in the other direction).
From Cheap Trinkets to Cheap Compute?
I find myself admonishing myself and cautioning clients to put China circa 2005 out of their mind. The argument is basically that yes, China used to make “cheap” trinkets. That much of what they made was of lower quality and fell apart. No one really picked up an item that had a “Made in China” label and thought it was fine engineering!
In general, that just isn’t true in 2026. China makes high-quality components. China makes high-quality products. Intellectual Property ownership has shifted. Through a variety of methods (ranging from companies willingly exposing themselves to Chinese companies to access via less savory means), China has closed the gap on IP. In some areas, China is ahead on IP.
I admit, I checked out a BYD showroom when I was in Munich last week (please try not to judge how I occupy my free time ). The vehicles looked kind of cool and I already had decent expectations, unlike I would have had a few years ago.
Is Cheap Compute the “New” China 2005 Story?
I’m not sure why I say “2005,” but I do (I hope it gets the point across that we are talking about what China was like a couple of decades ago, when they really started to dominate global trade).
My take is:
- China wedged their foot in the door by making some things at cheaper prices than anyone else could.
- China was willing to accept things, like pollution and horrible labor conditions, to do that.
We ceded more and more manufacturing to China, and they got better and better at it.
- China Inc. ensured that the Chinese government and Chinese corporations were in “sync,” making it easier to coordinate their push into global markets.
Unfair advantages at home, flooding markets to lower prices abroad, etc., were tools in their arsenal to dominate global manufacturing.
Over time, they made the shift from Made in China to Made by China:
- Selling your brands makes more money for your country and companies than just making someone else’s brands.
Globally, companies now compete with China on a much more equal footing, in terms of product quality, while China has the ability to work as China Inc. (typically an advantage).
That has played a role in our construction of the ProSec theme, which we provided a mid-year update on.
Increasingly, I’m concerned that we may be at a “2005” moment in compute?
General (ret.) Groen discussed this and much more with me on a call this week. I will paraphrase much of what was discussed:
- Are Chinese LLMs (and AI in general) as good as U.S. versions?
In general, no. Yes, it made big news on Friday, when a Chinese model did very well on some specific benchmark tests. For all we know, it was created/trained specifically for some benchmarks, which means it will do very well on those tests, but not necessarily perform well in the “wild.”
There are allegations and questions about how Chinese models attempt to train themselves on U.S. models, greatly reducing the cost and timing of training. Bad if true, but can it be stopped?
I’m told the politically correct term for this sort of “training” is to “distill” their models.
- Is China selling compute cheaper than U.S. compute is being sold for?
Yes, potentially 5 to 10 times cheaper. This is where I keep circling back to my “2005” date. Were dinky cars made in China as good as elsewhere? Ummm, I guess if you take out lead paint concerns and other things, sure, but the reality was we all kind of “knew” that there were issues with them. But you could buy a pack of 5 for the price of 1 made elsewhere, and the decision got more complex (apologies to Spider, who wanted me to use snow globes, but I decided to stick with dinky cars).
I do NOT have TikTok installed. I’ve only been on TEMU twice in my life. I haven’t even been tempted to try one of the Chinese models (and those of you who know me know I’m easily tempted). Yet, kind of like the dinky cars, you can see the appeal.
- The Half-Life of AI model domination seems to be shrinking. Probably an overly complicated (on my part) way of saying that AI is advancing rapidly. Every time you look at the benchmarks, there are models that have risen to the top of the charts that I barely knew existed (and I’m paying some attention).
Is AI able to generate new iterations of AI even faster? If you were, say, 3 generations behind, can you get to 1 generation behind extremely quickly? Seems plausible, especially if you are willing (or able) to “cut corners” on training?
- Electricity. Does the U.S. have the electricity generation capacity to feed the demand for AI (and the general public)? Do we have the ability to get that power from where it is generated to where it needs to be (the grid)? How do we compare to China on that front?
While I don’t have the details, it seems on the surface that China has more capability for “plug and play” on the AI front than the U.S. does. Electricity, energy production, and transfer are near the TOP OF THE ProSec list for a reason.
- NIMBY. We have discussed the AI Revolution as much as anyone (I think). We have been arguing that Data Center and AI construction (and electricity and to a lesser extent water) would be a major political issue in 2028 or sooner! No idea that it would be an issue that is defining some primaries already! New York State seems to be imposing a 1-year moratorium. I haven’t checked how that will work, but the fact that it is a talking point tells us something.
The AI industry needs to do better on community outreach. On top of everything else, there are National Security concerns at play. I’m not sure how the industry, or the national security apparatus, changes the direction in the U.S., but they need to increase their efforts.
There are plenty of areas building and pitching for more data centers and AI, so we are a long way from being out of the game, but we need to do a lot to not only protect the lead but also add to the lead (maybe the English coach could have applied that logic to the last 30 minutes as well).
I’m pretty sure that there is no equivalent of NIMBY in China. There are some things that one culture has that another culture doesn’t have, but at least there is some understanding of why you have that thing, or think that way. I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of people in China would just stare at you blankly, bemused by the concept of NIMBY getting in the way.
Bottom Line
Many of the “inflection” points have demonstrated a clear direction to which way they are headed, but with everything going on, expect more downside for the markets. DeepSeek was a moment. Treating cheap compute like manufacturing was treated circa 2005 is NOT a “moment.” I’m trying to avoid getting “sucked into the hype of the moment,” and wish I’d written the section on cheap compute Wednesday morning, before the recent news hit (we’d look a bit more proactive, rather than reactive), but I didn’t. The AI spend is at risk on multiple fronts, and while I expect earnings to be important, it now seems clear that even strong earnings, with very visible, very strong guidance for years to come, might not be enough! Last weekend, my perception was that earnings could propel sectors, especially the “compute” sector, higher, but I’m less convinced of that now. The story on “compute credit” seems to have deteriorated, even though we think it is overdone. It does seem like we might need a “debt diet” moment, where some company takes steps to make creditors happy, and finds that their stock responds positively to that action. While the Middle East is not helpful for lower inflation, any slowdown in the AI spend would be (though it would be awful for the economy). While I’m loath to end with a chart, today we are going to end with a chart.
While the Nasdaq 100 has been in a range for the past few weeks and has started moving lower, the S&P 500 equal weight index has been grinding higher and is extremely close to its all-time highs. In some ways it seems “crazy” to think that the S&P 500 equal weight and the Nasdaq 100 should have similar returns (we saw the post-Liberation Day rally in the Nasdaq 100), but finally the two indices closed the gap (noticeably the separation closed when both indices were moving lower).
Who knows, by Monday, the President may have sent something on Truth Social to change all of this (he controls the Iran narrative, and he did push back on the New York data center moratorium). If he does, we should find out at the same time as everyone else, because I don’t think “fast access” on Truth Social has been implemented yet (Trump Media Subscription Plan).
This should be an interesting week. Buy the dip, or get bearish? Of all the things listed, the concept of “cheap” compute from China concerns me the most!
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 14:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/overloaded-trinkets-compute-and-market-structure
Tropical Threat Emerges In Gulf Of America With US Refineries In Potential Crosshairs
Tropical Threat Emerges In Gulf Of America With US Refineries In Potential Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of tropical development for Invest 91L to 80% over the next two to seven days.
The broad area of low pressure off Florida's west coast in the Gulf of America should be tracked into the new week, as early Sunday model guidance suggests it could eventually threaten offshore oil and gas rigs and coastal refineries.
NHC's latest Invest 91L update:
A area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing.
Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today.
In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.
Formation odds:
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Model Track:
Refinery Map:
Regardless of Invest 91L's development, the broad area of low pressure will traverse northwest, away from Southwest Florida and towards the New Orleans area.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is beginning to move into an active phase.
Notably, El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing upper-level westerly winds and vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropics, which disrupt tropical systems before they organize or intensify.
More on developing https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/strongest-el-nino-75-years-sets-food-supply-chain-alarm-bells.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 13:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/tropical-threat-emerges-gulf-america-us-refineries-potential-crosshairs
Tropical Threat Emerges In Gulf Of America With US Refineries In Potential Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of tropical development for Invest 91L to 80% over the next two to seven days.
The broad area of low pressure off Florida's west coast in the Gulf of America should be tracked into the new week, as early Sunday model guidance suggests it could eventually threaten offshore oil and gas rigs and coastal refineries.
NHC's latest Invest 91L update:
A area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing.
Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today.
In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.
Formation odds:
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Model Track:
Refinery Map:
Regardless of Invest 91L's development, the broad area of low pressure will traverse northwest, away from Southwest Florida and towards the New Orleans area.
The Atlantic Hurricane season is beginning to move into an active phase.
Notably, El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing upper-level westerly winds and vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropics, which disrupt tropical systems before they organize or intensify.
More on developing https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/strongest-el-nino-75-years-sets-food-supply-chain-alarm-bells.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 13:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/tropical-threat-emerges-gulf-america-us-refineries-potential-crosshairs
Taylor Farms Announces Recall Of Lettuce Shipped To 27 States Over Cyclospora Risk
Taylor Farms Announces Recall Of Lettuce Shipped To 27 States Over Cyclospora Risk
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/taylor-farms-announces-recall-of-lettuce-shipped-to-27-states-over-cyclospora-risk-6064152?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge
U.S. lettuce supplier Taylor Farms expanded on July 17 its voluntary recall of iceberg lettuce from central Mexico due to concerns over its link to a cyclospora outbreak affecting Americans across the country.
Lettuce products that were possibly contaminated with the diarrhea-causing parasite were sent to 27 states, according to the company. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said July 18 the outbreak was linked to iceberg lettuce across five states and more than 1,000 people in the United States have been sickened by it.
“Consumers who have purchased the recalled iceberg lettuce should discard it immediately and not consume it,” California-based Taylor Farms said in a statement.
“Full refunds are also available at the location of purchase.”
States that were sent potentially contaminated lettuce products include Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The company added that it is actively removing affected products and ceased sourcing lettuce from the implicated lot in central Mexico. Taylor Farms reiterated that it is continuing to cooperate with the Food and Drug Administration, the CDC, and other authorities.
Taylor Farms released a full list of its potentially affected products, including various shredded lettuce and salad mixes, accompanied with their lot codes and use-by dates.
According to an earlier https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/california-company-recalls-lettuce-linked-to-parasite-outbreak-6063727 July 17, the company said it was voluntarily removing from U.S. markets all iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico. That decision was based on information the FDA provided to Taylor Farms regarding its products, the statement said.
“As a family owned and operated company, we are deeply concerned for those who became ill, their families, and the many Americans whose trust in the safety of their fresh produce has been shaken,” Taylor Farms said.
“That trust is something we’ve worked for decades to earn, and we are committed to doing everything in our power to restore that confidence.”
U.S. health officials earlier this week https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/taco-bell-removes-lettuce-from-some-stores-amid-cyclosporiasis-outbreak-6063284 it had traced “a single supplier of iceberg lettuce from Mexico used by Taco Bell locations where sick people ate before becoming ill.”
The popular fast-food chain addressed the issue in a statement on X, writing that it had removed all Taylor Farm products from its locations.
“We want you to hear it from us,” the company said. “So go ahead and enjoy your Taco Bell today.”
U.S. food distributor Sysco had also pulled all its Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico.
Cyclosporiasis is caused by the microscopic parasite cyclospora that stems from produce and water contaminated with human feces.
As of the latest update available from the CDC, the outbreak has resulted in 1,644 cases and 94 hospitalizations.
The agency noted that the true number of cases could be much higher, as many people are able to recover without medical care and are not tested for cyclospora.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 12:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/taylor-farms-announces-recall-lettuce-shipped-27-states-over-cyclospora-risk
Taylor Farms Announces Recall Of Lettuce Shipped To 27 States Over Cyclospora Risk
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/taylor-farms-announces-recall-of-lettuce-shipped-to-27-states-over-cyclospora-risk-6064152?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge
U.S. lettuce supplier Taylor Farms expanded on July 17 its voluntary recall of iceberg lettuce from central Mexico due to concerns over its link to a cyclospora outbreak affecting Americans across the country.
Lettuce products that were possibly contaminated with the diarrhea-causing parasite were sent to 27 states, according to the company. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said July 18 the outbreak was linked to iceberg lettuce across five states and more than 1,000 people in the United States have been sickened by it.
“Consumers who have purchased the recalled iceberg lettuce should discard it immediately and not consume it,” California-based Taylor Farms said in a statement.
“Full refunds are also available at the location of purchase.”
States that were sent potentially contaminated lettuce products include Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The company added that it is actively removing affected products and ceased sourcing lettuce from the implicated lot in central Mexico. Taylor Farms reiterated that it is continuing to cooperate with the Food and Drug Administration, the CDC, and other authorities.
Taylor Farms released a full list of its potentially affected products, including various shredded lettuce and salad mixes, accompanied with their lot codes and use-by dates.
According to an earlier https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/california-company-recalls-lettuce-linked-to-parasite-outbreak-6063727 July 17, the company said it was voluntarily removing from U.S. markets all iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico. That decision was based on information the FDA provided to Taylor Farms regarding its products, the statement said.
“As a family owned and operated company, we are deeply concerned for those who became ill, their families, and the many Americans whose trust in the safety of their fresh produce has been shaken,” Taylor Farms said.
“That trust is something we’ve worked for decades to earn, and we are committed to doing everything in our power to restore that confidence.”
U.S. health officials earlier this week https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/taco-bell-removes-lettuce-from-some-stores-amid-cyclosporiasis-outbreak-6063284 it had traced “a single supplier of iceberg lettuce from Mexico used by Taco Bell locations where sick people ate before becoming ill.”
The popular fast-food chain addressed the issue in a statement on X, writing that it had removed all Taylor Farm products from its locations.
“We want you to hear it from us,” the company said. “So go ahead and enjoy your Taco Bell today.”
U.S. food distributor Sysco had also pulled all its Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico.
Cyclosporiasis is caused by the microscopic parasite cyclospora that stems from produce and water contaminated with human feces.
As of the latest update available from the CDC, the outbreak has resulted in 1,644 cases and 94 hospitalizations.
The agency noted that the true number of cases could be much higher, as many people are able to recover without medical care and are not tested for cyclospora.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 12:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/taylor-farms-announces-recall-lettuce-shipped-27-states-over-cyclospora-risk
Zelensky Boasts Of Hits On 3 Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Tankers After Kiev Military Depot Leveled
Zelensky Boasts Of Hits On 3 Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Tankers After Kiev Military Depot Leveled
Russia overnight and into early Sunday morning unleashed what Ukrainian officials have described as its largest barrage of ballistic missiles focused on Kiev of the war.
Among the key targets was a large complex owned and operated by UKRTAC, a Ukrainian producer of military gear and personal protective equipment. Its manufacturing facilities and warehouses in the capital were destroyed in the assault.
UKRTAC, https://www.facebook.com/said.sever.96/posts/pfbid02PouCdZS8jcRgDogGfVr7uHEBUdNSsK8JWDfFBMtsCvGWSaMqajNg6EtJkzFyWmYCl on social media that facilities and production equipment were entirely wiped out due to a direct hit, but said there were no casualties at the plant.
But elsewhere in the capital there were significant casualties, with at least one person killed and 16 others wounded. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday it was one of the single biggest missile barrages of https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/19/russia-hits-ukraine-with-largest-number-of-ballistic-missiles-kyiv-says-a93281:
A series of powerful explosions thundered across the darkened city in an attack that involved 41 missiles of various types and ravaged buildings across several districts.
Also, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha has described the raid involved "around four dozen" ballistic missiles.
However, Zelensky has said Ukrainian forces continue to strike back, including a new attack on three oil depots and a fuel facility in Russia's southern Stavropol Sunday morning. Zelensky added three Russian 'shadow fleet' tankers were also struck in the Black Sea.
"Today, Ukraine’s long-range sanctions reached designated targets that support and finance Russia’s aggression. SSU units struck three oil depots in the Stavropol region at once, while units of our Armed Forces hit another fuel facility in the same region," he said.
"Direct hits were recorded on three Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea."
We continue to respond to Russian strikes in a fully justified and accurate manner. Today, Ukraine’s long-range sanctions reached designated targets that support and finance Russia’s aggression. SSU units struck three oil depots in the Stavropol region at once, while units of our… https://t.co/3YWEDFBknE
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2078772615087284424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Kremlin over the weekend has boasted of new ground advances along the front lines, but the war has long been focused in the air of late.
As for the Ukrainian capital, emergency crews have been scrambling on an almost nightly basis of late. Concerning the new attack, "The Kyiv government said firefighters were responding to blazes in five different districts after the attack, one of the biggest in recent weeks, hit residential buildings, office and industrial sites, a dormitory and vehicles," https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-kyiv-putin-missile-attack-b3017606.html describes.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 12:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-boasts-hits-3-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-after-kiev-military-depot-strike
Zelensky Boasts Of Hits On 3 Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Tankers After Kiev Military Depot Leveled
Russia overnight and into early Sunday morning unleashed what Ukrainian officials have described as its largest barrage of ballistic missiles focused on Kiev of the war.
Among the key targets was a large complex owned and operated by UKRTAC, a Ukrainian producer of military gear and personal protective equipment. Its manufacturing facilities and warehouses in the capital were destroyed in the assault.
UKRTAC, https://www.facebook.com/said.sever.96/posts/pfbid02PouCdZS8jcRgDogGfVr7uHEBUdNSsK8JWDfFBMtsCvGWSaMqajNg6EtJkzFyWmYCl on social media that facilities and production equipment were entirely wiped out due to a direct hit, but said there were no casualties at the plant.
But elsewhere in the capital there were significant casualties, with at least one person killed and 16 others wounded. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday it was one of the single biggest missile barrages of https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/19/russia-hits-ukraine-with-largest-number-of-ballistic-missiles-kyiv-says-a93281:
A series of powerful explosions thundered across the darkened city in an attack that involved 41 missiles of various types and ravaged buildings across several districts.
Also, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha has described the raid involved "around four dozen" ballistic missiles.
However, Zelensky has said Ukrainian forces continue to strike back, including a new attack on three oil depots and a fuel facility in Russia's southern Stavropol Sunday morning. Zelensky added three Russian 'shadow fleet' tankers were also struck in the Black Sea.
"Today, Ukraine’s long-range sanctions reached designated targets that support and finance Russia’s aggression. SSU units struck three oil depots in the Stavropol region at once, while units of our Armed Forces hit another fuel facility in the same region," he said.
"Direct hits were recorded on three Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea."
We continue to respond to Russian strikes in a fully justified and accurate manner. Today, Ukraine’s long-range sanctions reached designated targets that support and finance Russia’s aggression. SSU units struck three oil depots in the Stavropol region at once, while units of our… https://t.co/3YWEDFBknE
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2078772615087284424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Kremlin over the weekend has boasted of new ground advances along the front lines, but the war has long been focused in the air of late.
As for the Ukrainian capital, emergency crews have been scrambling on an almost nightly basis of late. Concerning the new attack, "The Kyiv government said firefighters were responding to blazes in five different districts after the attack, one of the biggest in recent weeks, hit residential buildings, office and industrial sites, a dormitory and vehicles," https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-kyiv-putin-missile-attack-b3017606.html describes.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 12:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-boasts-hits-3-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-after-kiev-military-depot-strike
The Day Democrats Return To Wall Street
The Day Democrats Return To Wall Street
Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-day-democrats-return-to-wall
If there’s one thing the market has become spectacularly good at, it’s extrapolating today’s political environment out to infinity…and “pricing in” things (like the end of the Iran War, Trump Tax cuts, future rate cuts, etc.) over and over again until one day of bad news turns into a year of “market optimism” about things getting better, prompting the S&P to rally to new all-time highs 17 days in a row despite the fact that nothing has changed on the ground.
And today, the market is acting as though Washington’s current regulatory philosophy, which appears to be https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/trump-explains-pardon-of-utah-billionaire-trevor-milton-who-was-convicted-of-fraud and take a “hands off” approach to new enforcement is simply...permanent. But it isn’t.
I think one of the biggest risks investors aren’t even remotely considering is what happens if Democrats take back the House this fall, or even more importantly, win the White House in 2028?
There’s a real chance this could lead to a wholesale repricing of the excesses that have flourished under an administration that has made it abundantly clear it would rather participate in markets than police them.
I still think Trump is a better option than anyone on the left side of the aisle when it comes to the Presidency. But ironically, Trump may have handed Democrats the perfect campaign issue. Forget whatever slogan focus groups come up with next. The message practically writes itself: corruption, self-dealing, insider enrichment, pardons for politically connected allies, regulatory capture, and a government that looked the other way while fortunes have been minted in increasingly questionable ways.
Republicans, including myself, cried wolf over Nancy Pelosi’s trading, Hunter Biden’s take from Burisma and President Biden’s dealings with China. But this administration’s cash grab, flanking all areas of the market https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/ to https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/trump-media-pitched-100000-monthly-fee-fast-feed-us-presidents-posts-ft-reports-2026-07-17/, puts Biden to shame.
If Democrats regain power, I think there is virtually no chance they don’t campaign on restoring “accountability” to Wall Street, crypto and corporate America. Sadly, they https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-devil-neither-political-party?utm_source=publication-search that their party also supports as an impetus for change. And unlike every election where politicians promise to lower drug prices by seventeen cents, accountability on Wall Street is actually something they can begin doing on Day One simply by changing who’s running the agencies.
Markets aren’t remotely priced for that. Today’s investors have become accustomed to a free-for-all style environment where enforcement often feels optional and the line between financial innovation and outright promotional nonsense has become increasingly difficult to distinguish. Insider trading on prediction markets, one crypto scam after the next, trillion dollar IPOs for companies that aren’t profitable, NBA players rigging games, members of congress insider trading. It’s the wild fucking west out there. That’s part of the reason https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be. It’s all rigged.
Crypto has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. The industry has spent years fighting regulators, only to find itself operating in perhaps the friendliest environment it has ever enjoyed. That https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-crypto-risk-no-one-is-discussing?utm_source=publication-search. A Democratic administration would almost certainly take a much harder look at exchanges, stablecoins, token offerings, disclosures, anti-money laundering rules, and whether many digital assets belong under securities laws. (Read: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-crypto-risk-no-one-is-discussing)
The important part isn’t whether every proposal succeeds. Markets don’t wait for legislation. They price expectations.
Somewhere along the way, Wall Street seems to have decided that “vision” is a perfectly acceptable substitute for profits, promotional CEOs deserve celebrity status, retail investors exist primarily as liquidity providers, and every wildly optimistic forecast deserves a trillion-dollar valuation until proven otherwise.
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/enablers?utm_source=publication-search? Bullish. Aggressive projections? Bullish. Financial engineering? Bullish. Serial https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/strategys-new-math-dilution-equals?utm_source=publication-search? Bullish. It’s become difficult to tell whether we’re allocating capital or handing out participation trophies for coming up with nonsense stories. Every new S-1 reads like sci-fi pulp fiction L. Ron Hubbard wrote for a penny a page back in 1964.
🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43
And a Democratic administration doesn’t need to outlaw any of this. It simply needs regulators that remember their job description.
Suddenly the SEC starts asking questions again. The DOJ develops an interest in corporate misconduct. Congressional hearings reappear. Enforcement actions increase. Companies spend more time paying lawyers and less time posting rocket emojis. That alone changes behavior. Speculative markets don’t like adults entering the room.
Could Democrats also push for higher corporate taxes, tougher antitrust enforcement, tighter rules around buybacks or capital gains changes? Of course. Maybe half those ideas never become law, but the possibility alone forces investors to rethink the multiples they’re willing to pay for companies whose business models seem to depend on regulators never opening the filing cabinet.
What’s remarkable is how few people seem prepared for any of this. The consensus appears to be that today’s regulatory climate is simply the new normal forever. That’s usually how markets get blindsided.
Nobody spends years saying, “Careful, the political pendulum might swing.” Instead, everyone gets caught leaning the same direction until suddenly they’re not. The ole’ “when the music stops” adage comes to mind…
And listen, quite frankly, I don’t think Democrats know much about finance. They’ve historically shown they’re more than capable of misunderstanding markets, overregulating industries and proposing policies that create plenty of unintended consequences.
But I’ll also admit something that probably won’t make me popular: it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if a few very obvious frauds were actually held accountable again.
If we truly lived in a pure free market where everyone understood the risks, did their own homework, and accepted the consequences of losing money, I’d be perfectly happy letting buyers beware and pulling all regulation. But that’s not the market we have. We have companies that wind up inside passive index funds. Retirement accounts own them automatically. Pension funds own them automatically. Millions of ordinary investors buy them without ever making an active decision because they’re simply embedded inside ETFs and benchmark indexes.
When obvious promotional garbage gets institutionalized like that, it stops being just another speculative bet between consenting adults…people are getting screwed without even realizing they’re participating.
That’s the part that has me, somewhat reluctantly, yearning for just a little more regulation than we’ve got today.
--
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/ with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.
As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be). Myhttps://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.
And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 11:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/day-democrats-return-wall-street
The Day Democrats Return To Wall Street
Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-day-democrats-return-to-wall
If there’s one thing the market has become spectacularly good at, it’s extrapolating today’s political environment out to infinity…and “pricing in” things (like the end of the Iran War, Trump Tax cuts, future rate cuts, etc.) over and over again until one day of bad news turns into a year of “market optimism” about things getting better, prompting the S&P to rally to new all-time highs 17 days in a row despite the fact that nothing has changed on the ground.
And today, the market is acting as though Washington’s current regulatory philosophy, which appears to be https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/trump-explains-pardon-of-utah-billionaire-trevor-milton-who-was-convicted-of-fraud and take a “hands off” approach to new enforcement is simply...permanent. But it isn’t.
I think one of the biggest risks investors aren’t even remotely considering is what happens if Democrats take back the House this fall, or even more importantly, win the White House in 2028?
There’s a real chance this could lead to a wholesale repricing of the excesses that have flourished under an administration that has made it abundantly clear it would rather participate in markets than police them.
I still think Trump is a better option than anyone on the left side of the aisle when it comes to the Presidency. But ironically, Trump may have handed Democrats the perfect campaign issue. Forget whatever slogan focus groups come up with next. The message practically writes itself: corruption, self-dealing, insider enrichment, pardons for politically connected allies, regulatory capture, and a government that looked the other way while fortunes have been minted in increasingly questionable ways.
Republicans, including myself, cried wolf over Nancy Pelosi’s trading, Hunter Biden’s take from Burisma and President Biden’s dealings with China. But this administration’s cash grab, flanking all areas of the market https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/ to https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/trump-media-pitched-100000-monthly-fee-fast-feed-us-presidents-posts-ft-reports-2026-07-17/, puts Biden to shame.
If Democrats regain power, I think there is virtually no chance they don’t campaign on restoring “accountability” to Wall Street, crypto and corporate America. Sadly, they https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-devil-neither-political-party?utm_source=publication-search that their party also supports as an impetus for change. And unlike every election where politicians promise to lower drug prices by seventeen cents, accountability on Wall Street is actually something they can begin doing on Day One simply by changing who’s running the agencies.
Markets aren’t remotely priced for that. Today’s investors have become accustomed to a free-for-all style environment where enforcement often feels optional and the line between financial innovation and outright promotional nonsense has become increasingly difficult to distinguish. Insider trading on prediction markets, one crypto scam after the next, trillion dollar IPOs for companies that aren’t profitable, NBA players rigging games, members of congress insider trading. It’s the wild fucking west out there. That’s part of the reason https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be. It’s all rigged.
Crypto has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. The industry has spent years fighting regulators, only to find itself operating in perhaps the friendliest environment it has ever enjoyed. That https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-crypto-risk-no-one-is-discussing?utm_source=publication-search. A Democratic administration would almost certainly take a much harder look at exchanges, stablecoins, token offerings, disclosures, anti-money laundering rules, and whether many digital assets belong under securities laws. (Read: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-crypto-risk-no-one-is-discussing)
The important part isn’t whether every proposal succeeds. Markets don’t wait for legislation. They price expectations.
Somewhere along the way, Wall Street seems to have decided that “vision” is a perfectly acceptable substitute for profits, promotional CEOs deserve celebrity status, retail investors exist primarily as liquidity providers, and every wildly optimistic forecast deserves a trillion-dollar valuation until proven otherwise.
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/enablers?utm_source=publication-search? Bullish. Aggressive projections? Bullish. Financial engineering? Bullish. Serial https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/strategys-new-math-dilution-equals?utm_source=publication-search? Bullish. It’s become difficult to tell whether we’re allocating capital or handing out participation trophies for coming up with nonsense stories. Every new S-1 reads like sci-fi pulp fiction L. Ron Hubbard wrote for a penny a page back in 1964.
🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43
And a Democratic administration doesn’t need to outlaw any of this. It simply needs regulators that remember their job description.
Suddenly the SEC starts asking questions again. The DOJ develops an interest in corporate misconduct. Congressional hearings reappear. Enforcement actions increase. Companies spend more time paying lawyers and less time posting rocket emojis. That alone changes behavior. Speculative markets don’t like adults entering the room.
Could Democrats also push for higher corporate taxes, tougher antitrust enforcement, tighter rules around buybacks or capital gains changes? Of course. Maybe half those ideas never become law, but the possibility alone forces investors to rethink the multiples they’re willing to pay for companies whose business models seem to depend on regulators never opening the filing cabinet.
What’s remarkable is how few people seem prepared for any of this. The consensus appears to be that today’s regulatory climate is simply the new normal forever. That’s usually how markets get blindsided.
Nobody spends years saying, “Careful, the political pendulum might swing.” Instead, everyone gets caught leaning the same direction until suddenly they’re not. The ole’ “when the music stops” adage comes to mind…
And listen, quite frankly, I don’t think Democrats know much about finance. They’ve historically shown they’re more than capable of misunderstanding markets, overregulating industries and proposing policies that create plenty of unintended consequences.
But I’ll also admit something that probably won’t make me popular: it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if a few very obvious frauds were actually held accountable again.
If we truly lived in a pure free market where everyone understood the risks, did their own homework, and accepted the consequences of losing money, I’d be perfectly happy letting buyers beware and pulling all regulation. But that’s not the market we have. We have companies that wind up inside passive index funds. Retirement accounts own them automatically. Pension funds own them automatically. Millions of ordinary investors buy them without ever making an active decision because they’re simply embedded inside ETFs and benchmark indexes.
When obvious promotional garbage gets institutionalized like that, it stops being just another speculative bet between consenting adults…people are getting screwed without even realizing they’re participating.
That’s the part that has me, somewhat reluctantly, yearning for just a little more regulation than we’ve got today.
--
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/ with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.
As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be). Myhttps://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/you-can-never-win-you-can-never-be, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.
And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 11:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/day-democrats-return-wall-street
Social Media Influencers Andrew And Tristan Tate Arrested In Miami
Social Media Influencers Andrew And Tristan Tate Arrested In Miami
Via https://headlineusa.com/subscribe/,
Influencer brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate, whose social media empire promoting wealth, male dominance and misogyny has made them among the world’s most polarizing internet personalities, were arrested Saturday in Miami as British authorities sought their extradition on rape and sex trafficking charges.
The brothers were taken into custody by the U.S. Marshals Service on a sealed warrant, placing the United States at the center of an international legal saga that has stretched from Romania to Britain.
STATEMENT OF JOSEPH D. MCBRIDE, ATTORNEY FOR ANDREW AND TRISTAN TATE
The world knows Andrew and Tristan Tate are innocent. Their enemies know it best of all. That is exactly why they have been attacked.
Last night, the United Kingdom, a corrupt and fallen nation that jails its… https://t.co/XoMVmPxtgA
— Joe McBride (@McBrideLawNYC) https://x.com/McBrideLawNYC/status/2078643684623659073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Britain is seeking their extradition on rape and trafficking charges
British prosecutors announced Saturday that they were seeking the brothers’ extradition on charges alleging they raped and trafficked women between 2010 and 2017.
The dual U.S. and British citizens moved to Romania in 2016.
They were arrested there in 2022, accused of participating in schemes to lure women for sexual exploitation.
They denied those allegations and the Romanian case hasn’t gone forward because of legal and procedural problems.
Last year, they were allowed to leave Romania and flew to Florida on a private jet.
The brothers are expected to appear in Miami’s federal court early next week, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive law enforcement operations.
The pending charges in the United Kingdom accused the brothers of abusing women in an area north of London, where they grew up. Their lawyers had said they denied the allegations.
Joseph McBride, an attorney representing the Tate brothers, said in a phone interview Saturday evening that he has not been able to speak with his clients but called the new charges out of the U.K. “filth and slander” intended to derail defamation lawsuits filed by the brothers in the U.S.
“They’re pulling out all the stops to make sure these guys never get their day in court,” McBride said.
“We are confident that once a competent judge sees the facts, and once the Department of Justice confronts this egregious abuse of its own authority, Andrew and Tristan Tate will walk free. America does not do Britain’s political dirty work.”
https://t.co/qSAn0cywI2
— Joe McBride (@McBrideLawNYC) https://x.com/McBrideLawNYC/status/2078638232850280543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Tate has been banned from social media platforms for ‘hate speech’
Andrew Tate, 39, first reached a mainstream audience as a contestant on the U.K. reality television show “Big Brother” in 2016. He was removed from the show when a video surfaced that appeared to show Tate assaulting a woman. He and his brother Tristan Tate, 38, are vocal supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Andrew Tate has amassed over 10 million followers on X but has been banned from platforms like YouTube, TikTok and Instagram for violating “hate speech” guidelines.
The Tate brothers have consistently denied allegations of abuse and human trafficking, claiming that violent and misogynistic statements have been taken out of context or were intended as jokes.
In a statement Saturday, the U.K.’s Crown Prosecution Services said that in addition to the charges publicly announced against the brothers in 2025, involving alleged crimes against three women, it was bringing a total of 38 new charges related to “four further victims.”
Both brothers are accused of rape and human trafficking. Andrew Tate faces an additional charge of profiting from prostitution, and 19 charges “for offences relating to indecent images of a child and extreme pornography,” according to U.K. authorities.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 10:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/social-media-influencers-andrew-and-tristan-tate-arrested-miami
Social Media Influencers Andrew And Tristan Tate Arrested In Miami
Via https://headlineusa.com/subscribe/,
Influencer brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate, whose social media empire promoting wealth, male dominance and misogyny has made them among the world’s most polarizing internet personalities, were arrested Saturday in Miami as British authorities sought their extradition on rape and sex trafficking charges.
The brothers were taken into custody by the U.S. Marshals Service on a sealed warrant, placing the United States at the center of an international legal saga that has stretched from Romania to Britain.
STATEMENT OF JOSEPH D. MCBRIDE, ATTORNEY FOR ANDREW AND TRISTAN TATE
The world knows Andrew and Tristan Tate are innocent. Their enemies know it best of all. That is exactly why they have been attacked.
Last night, the United Kingdom, a corrupt and fallen nation that jails its… https://t.co/XoMVmPxtgA
— Joe McBride (@McBrideLawNYC) https://x.com/McBrideLawNYC/status/2078643684623659073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Britain is seeking their extradition on rape and trafficking charges
British prosecutors announced Saturday that they were seeking the brothers’ extradition on charges alleging they raped and trafficked women between 2010 and 2017.
The dual U.S. and British citizens moved to Romania in 2016.
They were arrested there in 2022, accused of participating in schemes to lure women for sexual exploitation.
They denied those allegations and the Romanian case hasn’t gone forward because of legal and procedural problems.
Last year, they were allowed to leave Romania and flew to Florida on a private jet.
The brothers are expected to appear in Miami’s federal court early next week, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive law enforcement operations.
The pending charges in the United Kingdom accused the brothers of abusing women in an area north of London, where they grew up. Their lawyers had said they denied the allegations.
Joseph McBride, an attorney representing the Tate brothers, said in a phone interview Saturday evening that he has not been able to speak with his clients but called the new charges out of the U.K. “filth and slander” intended to derail defamation lawsuits filed by the brothers in the U.S.
“They’re pulling out all the stops to make sure these guys never get their day in court,” McBride said.
“We are confident that once a competent judge sees the facts, and once the Department of Justice confronts this egregious abuse of its own authority, Andrew and Tristan Tate will walk free. America does not do Britain’s political dirty work.”
https://t.co/qSAn0cywI2
— Joe McBride (@McBrideLawNYC) https://x.com/McBrideLawNYC/status/2078638232850280543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Tate has been banned from social media platforms for ‘hate speech’
Andrew Tate, 39, first reached a mainstream audience as a contestant on the U.K. reality television show “Big Brother” in 2016. He was removed from the show when a video surfaced that appeared to show Tate assaulting a woman. He and his brother Tristan Tate, 38, are vocal supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Andrew Tate has amassed over 10 million followers on X but has been banned from platforms like YouTube, TikTok and Instagram for violating “hate speech” guidelines.
The Tate brothers have consistently denied allegations of abuse and human trafficking, claiming that violent and misogynistic statements have been taken out of context or were intended as jokes.
In a statement Saturday, the U.K.’s Crown Prosecution Services said that in addition to the charges publicly announced against the brothers in 2025, involving alleged crimes against three women, it was bringing a total of 38 new charges related to “four further victims.”
Both brothers are accused of rape and human trafficking. Andrew Tate faces an additional charge of profiting from prostitution, and 19 charges “for offences relating to indecent images of a child and extreme pornography,” according to U.K. authorities.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 10:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/social-media-influencers-andrew-and-tristan-tate-arrested-miami
Meet The "New Soros" Whose "Street Cred" Could Rise If Spain Blocks Extradition
Meet The "New Soros" Whose "Street Cred" Could Rise If Spain Blocks Extradition
The federal government is well underway with a multiagency and multinational effort to combat the alarming rise of far-left revolutionaries. This was most evident on Thursday, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed delegations from 65 countries.
Meanwhile, Jim "Fergie" Chambers, the communist centimillionaire and heir to the Cox media fortune, is apparently "https://www.zerohedge.com/political/one-step-closer-extradition-cox-media-heir-faces-reckoning-over-funding-marxist" on federal charges linked to "international money laundering... with the intent to provide material support and resources to foreign terrorist organizations."
Chambers is a major funder of America's radical Left and has been described by pro-Palestinian activist Laith Marouf as "the new Soros."
Marouf warned that Chambers could gain significantly more influence and "street cred" if Spain refuses to extradite him to the U.S.
https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2077744491776102460?s=20 provided additional color on Marouf's recent conversation, offering readers a clearer view of the major financiers and influence networks operating across the radical Left:
Laith Marouf Warns Fergie Chambers Is "the New Soros" and Could Gain More "Street Cred" if Spain Refuses Extradition
As left-wing activists demand "Freedom for Fergie," Laith Marouf is refusing to join them.
Marouf says he opposes Chambers's extradition to the United States but warns that an unsuccessful prosecution could merely give the multimillionaire more "street cred."
Citing conversations he claims to have had with current and former intelligence agents, including Syrian and Spanish sources, Marouf alleges that Chambers has been positioned as "the new Soros" and is using his fortune to capture radical English-language media around the world.
"He basically bought all the landscape of progressive media and is funding all of them," Marouf said, alleging that Chambers's donations allow him to influence those outlets' political positions.
Marouf also accused Chambers of threatening his life and attempting to destroy his reputation. He said he does not wish imprisonment or death on Chambers, but he will not join those demanding his release.
"I will sit on the side as an observer, watching the game of the American white elite beating each other up."
Marouf argues that Chambers is using inherited "blood money" to purchase credibility within the Palestine movement.
"No, I don't want Palestine in his mouth," he said. "I don't want Palestine to be associated with Fergie Cox."
The broader Left has largely rallied behind Chambers, leaving Marouf as a rare dissenting voice. His definition of "progressive media" is unclear, but his broader warning about Chambers buying influence across the radical English-language media sphere rings true. And if Spain refuses extradition, Marouf may be right that the ordeal will only give Chambers more "street cred."
🚨 Laith Marouf Warns Fergie Chambers Is “the New Soros” and Could Gain More “Street Cred” if Spain Refuses Extradition
As left-wing activists demand “Freedom for Fergie,” Laith Marouf is refusing to join them.
Marouf says he opposes Chambers’s extradition to the United States… https://t.co/sY0tDe7z26
— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2077744491776102460?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Smith has previously noted, "Chambers is one of the main funders of America's radical Left. His money has flowed to a host of projects in the 'anti-imperialism' organizing space," adding, "Chambers claims that he and Singham are effectively the two primary financiers of the US radical Left." Despite this, the two have apparently been at loggerheads—a conflict that has now gone public."
🚨 Hasan Names Singham, PSL, ANSWER, and Code Pink in One Breath
On stream today, Hasan Piker discussed the reported Treasury scrutiny and said the broader target is “probably Singham” and “his operation,” naming PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation), ANSWER Coalition, Code… https://t.co/0zpYhJbPV2
— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2059018248478146896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Following Rubio's “https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-rubio-bessent-convene-65-nations-global-crackdown-far-left-political-terrorism" at the State Department on Thursday, where he addressed delegations from 65 countries on combating far-left extremism, the signal is clear: The Trump administration is positioning for a broader fight against transnational Marxist revolutionary networks, reminiscent of the Western counter-subversion campaigns waged seven decades ago.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 09:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/meet-new-soros-whose-street-cred-could-rise-if-spain-blocks-extradition
Meet The "New Soros" Whose "Street Cred" Could Rise If Spain Blocks Extradition
The federal government is well underway with a multiagency and multinational effort to combat the alarming rise of far-left revolutionaries. This was most evident on Thursday, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed delegations from 65 countries.
Meanwhile, Jim "Fergie" Chambers, the communist centimillionaire and heir to the Cox media fortune, is apparently "https://www.zerohedge.com/political/one-step-closer-extradition-cox-media-heir-faces-reckoning-over-funding-marxist" on federal charges linked to "international money laundering... with the intent to provide material support and resources to foreign terrorist organizations."
Chambers is a major funder of America's radical Left and has been described by pro-Palestinian activist Laith Marouf as "the new Soros."
Marouf warned that Chambers could gain significantly more influence and "street cred" if Spain refuses to extradite him to the U.S.
https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2077744491776102460?s=20 provided additional color on Marouf's recent conversation, offering readers a clearer view of the major financiers and influence networks operating across the radical Left:
Laith Marouf Warns Fergie Chambers Is "the New Soros" and Could Gain More "Street Cred" if Spain Refuses Extradition
As left-wing activists demand "Freedom for Fergie," Laith Marouf is refusing to join them.
Marouf says he opposes Chambers's extradition to the United States but warns that an unsuccessful prosecution could merely give the multimillionaire more "street cred."
Citing conversations he claims to have had with current and former intelligence agents, including Syrian and Spanish sources, Marouf alleges that Chambers has been positioned as "the new Soros" and is using his fortune to capture radical English-language media around the world.
"He basically bought all the landscape of progressive media and is funding all of them," Marouf said, alleging that Chambers's donations allow him to influence those outlets' political positions.
Marouf also accused Chambers of threatening his life and attempting to destroy his reputation. He said he does not wish imprisonment or death on Chambers, but he will not join those demanding his release.
"I will sit on the side as an observer, watching the game of the American white elite beating each other up."
Marouf argues that Chambers is using inherited "blood money" to purchase credibility within the Palestine movement.
"No, I don't want Palestine in his mouth," he said. "I don't want Palestine to be associated with Fergie Cox."
The broader Left has largely rallied behind Chambers, leaving Marouf as a rare dissenting voice. His definition of "progressive media" is unclear, but his broader warning about Chambers buying influence across the radical English-language media sphere rings true. And if Spain refuses extradition, Marouf may be right that the ordeal will only give Chambers more "street cred."
🚨 Laith Marouf Warns Fergie Chambers Is “the New Soros” and Could Gain More “Street Cred” if Spain Refuses Extradition
As left-wing activists demand “Freedom for Fergie,” Laith Marouf is refusing to join them.
Marouf says he opposes Chambers’s extradition to the United States… https://t.co/sY0tDe7z26
— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2077744491776102460?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Smith has previously noted, "Chambers is one of the main funders of America's radical Left. His money has flowed to a host of projects in the 'anti-imperialism' organizing space," adding, "Chambers claims that he and Singham are effectively the two primary financiers of the US radical Left." Despite this, the two have apparently been at loggerheads—a conflict that has now gone public."
🚨 Hasan Names Singham, PSL, ANSWER, and Code Pink in One Breath
On stream today, Hasan Piker discussed the reported Treasury scrutiny and said the broader target is “probably Singham” and “his operation,” naming PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation), ANSWER Coalition, Code… https://t.co/0zpYhJbPV2
— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2059018248478146896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Following Rubio's “https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-rubio-bessent-convene-65-nations-global-crackdown-far-left-political-terrorism" at the State Department on Thursday, where he addressed delegations from 65 countries on combating far-left extremism, the signal is clear: The Trump administration is positioning for a broader fight against transnational Marxist revolutionary networks, reminiscent of the Western counter-subversion campaigns waged seven decades ago.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 09:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/meet-new-soros-whose-street-cred-could-rise-if-spain-blocks-extradition
Traders Stunned By Momentum Meltdown As Earnings Quality Problem Simmers Under The Surface
Traders Stunned By Momentum Meltdown As Earnings Quality Problem Simmers Under The Surface
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/momentum-meltdown-catches-traders-by-surprise/
📈Technical Backdrop – Coiling Below The Record
Here is where the quiet-index story gets interesting for traders. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,457.69, and that put it right on top of its 50-day moving average near 7,464. Call it dead flat against the line. The index still sits about 6.8% above its rising 200-day average near 6,985, so the primary uptrend remains fully intact, and it is roughly 2% below the June 2 record high of 7,620.
Momentum on the index itself is neutral, not broken. The 14-day RSI reads 48.8, smack in the middle of its range and nowhere near oversold. The MACD is the wrinkle. It just rolled below its signal line for the first time since the April low, and the histogram flipped negative. That is a fresh bearish crossover. One crossover is not a sell signal, but it is exactly the kind of longer-term warning we watch for as a correction builds.
The contrast between the index and the factor is the whole point. The Momentum ETF, MTUM, fell about 6% on the week and printed a 14-day RSI of 41, far weaker than the broad market. The average stock barely flinched. The equal-weight S&P lost less than half a percent and actually tagged a fresh record high midweek, and the Russell 2000 held up better than the Nasdaq. When the cap-weighted index falls, but the median stock does not, the damage is narrow by definition.
So how do you trade it? The 50-day is the line in the sand. Therefore, a decisive hold keeps the burden of proof on the bears, and the first real test on a break sits at the mid-July range low near 7,300. I would not chase the semiconductor and high-beta names lower into a knife that is still falling, and I would not short a market whose average stock is making new highs. This is a spot to rebalance risk, not to place a directional bet. Hold 7,464, and the rotation stays healthy. Lose it on volume, and the correction earns a wider berth.
💰 Momentum Meltdown Sends A Warning
Every so often, the market hands you a week where the index and the internals tell opposite stories. This was one of them. The S&P 500 fell about 1.5%, a garden-variety pullback, while the momentum factor suffered its worst drawdown since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. That gap is the entire story, and understanding it is the difference between panic-selling the wrong thing and using the rotation to your advantage. As I flagged two weeks ago in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/, this rotation was coming.
The scale of this move is genuinely historic, and the qualifier matters. As noted above, the Goldman Sachs high-beta momentum basket fell roughly 24% in the first two weeks of July, the worst such stretch since April 2009. Furthermore, the Morgan Stanley tech momentum index registered a 17-day rate of change of -35%, the worst in its 27-year history. Goldman’s flagship momentum pair is now down about 33% from its highs and has broken below its own 200-day average, a drawdown that matches the late-2022 low. Those are numbers worth repeating for emphasis.
Here is the part that keeps this from being a catastrophe. That same high-beta momentum basket is STILL up about 16% for the year after peaking near +60%. This is a violent give-back of an enormous gain, not a wealth-destroying collapse. The single-stock casualties show where the crowd was hiding: in semiconductors.
It Is A Rotation, Not A Collapse
If money were fleeing the market, you would see it everywhere, but that is not the case. The equal-weight S&P 500 fell less than half a percent on the week and printed a new all-time high midweek, while defensive and cyclical value groups finished green. Energy led following the oil spike, and real estate, staples, and financials all gained. That is not what a market top looks like. That is capital rotating out of the most crowded corner and into everything else.
The leadership under the surface has quietly flipped. Look at what is working against what is breaking, and the rotation is obvious. Security-software names like Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, which benefit from AI adoption without the semiconductor bottleneck risk, are catching the bid alongside energy and the banks. The mega-cap AI generals held up far better than the speculative fringe, with Nvidia down under 4% and both Microsoft and Amazon actually positive on the week. The pain was surgical, not broad.
What Actually Broke The Trade
Four forces hit at once, which is why the move was so violent; the setup was a positioning problem. Momentum had been the undisputed king of 2026, and nearly everyone owned it, leaving no marginal buyer when selling started. The trigger came from leverage. In Asia, single-stock leveraged ETFs on names like SK Hynix had ballooned, and when the underlying prices dipped, those funds were forced to sell to maintain their 2x exposure, which fed a self-reinforcing unwind. Korea moved to halt new listings of these products midweek.
On top of that, China’s Kimi K3 release cracked the assumption that US AI leadership was unassailable, and the oil spike from renewed Iran tensions revived a macro risk the momentum crowd had stopped pricing. The June index-rebalancing that had provided a price-insensitive buyer for winners like SpaceX and Marvell was gone. Take away the buyer, add forced sellers, and you get a washout.
The lesson of every crowded-trade unwind is the same. The factor that leads on the way up leads on the way down, and the exit door is always narrower than the entrance.
Goldman’s own desk offers a hopeful footnote. Once the momentum factor drops more than 20% in a month, forward returns have tended to be positive, with a median gain near 4% over the following week and close to 6% over the following month. The path is rarely smooth, and next week’s reports are the swing factor. Notably, a violent factor unwind is often closer to an opportunity than to the start of a bear market. Yes, that is an optimistic case, but it is a real one to consider given the rash of negative headlines this past week.
The Earnings-Quality Problem Underneath The Rally
There is a deeper issue that the momentum crowd has been willing to ignore, and it goes to the quality of the earnings that are holding up the AI trade. Take Alphabet’s blockbuster first quarter. The headline was a record, but tens of billions of it came from mark-to-market gains on private stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX, not from the operating business. Stripping the paper gain would have caused the estimate to be missed. That is not a one-off quirk. Across the hyperscalers, a wave of AI capital spending is being depreciated over long schedules that assume these chips and data centers will earn their keep for years, thereby inflating near-term margins and quietly deferring the true cost.
We walked through that dynamic in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/capex-spending-on-ai-is-masking-economic-weakness/, and it is the reason next week’s reports carry so much weight. The moment the market decides to pay for cash flow and earnings quality rather than capex headlines, the most crowded and most expensive names carry the most risk. Momentum had been priced for perfection. Perfection is an expensive thing to own the moment the story starts to wobble.
Why There Could Be More To Go
It helps to separate two ideas. The momentum meltdown is the event, and the violent two-week repricing we just lived through. The momentum shift is the bigger thing, a change in market leadership away from the narrow band of high-beta and semiconductor names that carried 2026 and toward the broad market underneath. The first can end in a week. The second is a process, and history says leadership changes take months to resolve, not days. That distinction applies to patience here, and it is why I think more air can still come out before this is finished.
The math tells you why the shift may not be over. As discussed above, following the worst two weeks since 2009, the high-beta momentum basket is still up about 16% on the year. That is the give-back of a parabola, not a full reset. Positioning has been reduced, but it has not capitulated, and not a single US semiconductor is even oversold yet on a 14-day RSI basis. Washouts of this scale rarely resolve in one clean flush. They tend to arrive in waves, with sharp relief rallies that pull money back in right before the next leg lower.
The healthy read is that the average stock is doing fine while the crowd unwinds. The cautious read is that the unwind still has fuel in the tank. This is because the crowd is sitting on a full year of gains it may yet decide to protect. Both can be true at once. That tension is exactly why the tape has felt so violent under a calm surface.
The Macro Has Turned Against The Trade
Here is where this week’s other headline matters. In https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/, we covered Kevin Warsh’s first testimony to Congress. The message was not what a momentum trader wants to hear. Warsh told lawmakers the Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” He also pointedly refused to offer forward guidance, arguing that published projections only breed confirmation bias. June CPI actually showed prices falling 0.4% on the month, and yet the committee is still split on the odds of a rate hike in September, not a cut.
Now read that against this week’s tape. Oil just jumped roughly 14% on renewed Iran tensions, which threatens to undo the very disinflation that gave Warsh room to sound patient. A hawkish Fed with no rate cut on the horizon and no forward guidance to lean on is the opposite of the backdrop that inflated the momentum trade in the first place. The most expensive, longest-duration growth names need falling rates and easy liquidity to justify their multiples. Right now, they are getting neither, and policy uncertainty alone widens the risk premium the market demands to hold them.
None of this is a forecast of a bear market. It is a reminder that a leadership shift, once it begins, usually runs longer and further than the first move suggests. Here are both sides of the ledger, laid out honestly.
Weigh the calendar, too. We noted previously that the risk of a larger market correction (5-10%) is highest in August through October. That is particularly true given the upcoming mid-term elections. Those three months are historically the weakest stretch of the year anyway. However, the election uncertainty adds to that risk, and this unwind is landing right as we walk into it. That does not mean you sell everything and hide. It means you respect the shift. Therefore, keep tight risk controls on the crowded names, and let the earnings and the tape confirm the next move.
🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week
Next week, the Federal Reserve goes silent. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting puts the committee in its blackout window, so there are no Fed speakers to move the tape. That leaves two things in charge: the economic data and the start of mega-cap earnings, with the second being the main event.
Wednesday after the close is the night that matters. Alphabet, Tesla, and Texas Instruments all report at once, and Intel follows on Thursday evening. This is the first real referendum on the AI-capex story since the momentum trade cracked. Alphabet is the tell. The company has guided to roughly $175 billion of capital spending in 2026, and JPMorgan’s desk pegs 2027 buyside expectations for Google alone near $325 to $350 billion, well above a Street consensus closer to $250 billion. If the hyperscalers signal any hesitation on that spend, the chips that depend on it have further to fall. If they reaffirm it, the washed-out names finally get their catalyst.
The setup is loaded. Alphabet’s blowout first-quarter results were flattered by tens of billions in mark-to-market gains on its Anthropic and SpaceX stakes; stripping those out, the operating number would have missed by a hair. That is exactly the earnings-quality question we have been raising for months. The market will judge this print on margins and cloud growth, not on the headline number.
Ed Yardeni has framed the broader mood as a case of AI Fatigue, with investors starting to ask whether the trillion-dollar buildout will ever pay off. The Friday flash PMIs are the data highlight, since they are the first look at how business activity handled the July volatility and the oil spike. Everything else bends around Wednesday night. A clean capex message from Alphabet steadies the entire complex. Any wobble, and the momentum meltdown gets a second leg.
What Should Investors Do Now
This is a moment for discipline, not heroics. The rotation is healthy but not finished. Next week’s reports will determine whether the momentum names have found a floor. As we laid out last week in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-narrative-has-turned/, the play into late July is to lean toward the washed-out mega-cap leaders rather than the extended names, and to define the exit at the earnings dates themselves. If Alphabet and the others confirm the capex and cash-flow worries when they report, you sell and move on. If estimates hold, the oversold snapback has room to run.
Keep capital preservation first. An index sitting on its 50-day with a neutral RSI is neither a screaming buy nor a screaming sell. It is a market telling you to rebalance, tighten your stops on the crowded names, and let the earnings do the talking. The momentum meltdown was a warning shot about what happens when everyone owns the same thing at the same time. The momentum shift it kicked off is the story that matters now, and it likely has further to run.
The thread to follow into next week is simple.
Money is not leaving the market. It is rotating hard, and the tape will not settle until the crowd finishes repositioning.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 09:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/traders-stunned-momentum-meltdown-earnings-quality-problem-simmers-under-surface
Traders Stunned By Momentum Meltdown As Earnings Quality Problem Simmers Under The Surface
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/momentum-meltdown-catches-traders-by-surprise/
📈Technical Backdrop – Coiling Below The Record
Here is where the quiet-index story gets interesting for traders. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,457.69, and that put it right on top of its 50-day moving average near 7,464. Call it dead flat against the line. The index still sits about 6.8% above its rising 200-day average near 6,985, so the primary uptrend remains fully intact, and it is roughly 2% below the June 2 record high of 7,620.
Momentum on the index itself is neutral, not broken. The 14-day RSI reads 48.8, smack in the middle of its range and nowhere near oversold. The MACD is the wrinkle. It just rolled below its signal line for the first time since the April low, and the histogram flipped negative. That is a fresh bearish crossover. One crossover is not a sell signal, but it is exactly the kind of longer-term warning we watch for as a correction builds.
The contrast between the index and the factor is the whole point. The Momentum ETF, MTUM, fell about 6% on the week and printed a 14-day RSI of 41, far weaker than the broad market. The average stock barely flinched. The equal-weight S&P lost less than half a percent and actually tagged a fresh record high midweek, and the Russell 2000 held up better than the Nasdaq. When the cap-weighted index falls, but the median stock does not, the damage is narrow by definition.
So how do you trade it? The 50-day is the line in the sand. Therefore, a decisive hold keeps the burden of proof on the bears, and the first real test on a break sits at the mid-July range low near 7,300. I would not chase the semiconductor and high-beta names lower into a knife that is still falling, and I would not short a market whose average stock is making new highs. This is a spot to rebalance risk, not to place a directional bet. Hold 7,464, and the rotation stays healthy. Lose it on volume, and the correction earns a wider berth.
💰 Momentum Meltdown Sends A Warning
Every so often, the market hands you a week where the index and the internals tell opposite stories. This was one of them. The S&P 500 fell about 1.5%, a garden-variety pullback, while the momentum factor suffered its worst drawdown since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. That gap is the entire story, and understanding it is the difference between panic-selling the wrong thing and using the rotation to your advantage. As I flagged two weeks ago in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/, this rotation was coming.
The scale of this move is genuinely historic, and the qualifier matters. As noted above, the Goldman Sachs high-beta momentum basket fell roughly 24% in the first two weeks of July, the worst such stretch since April 2009. Furthermore, the Morgan Stanley tech momentum index registered a 17-day rate of change of -35%, the worst in its 27-year history. Goldman’s flagship momentum pair is now down about 33% from its highs and has broken below its own 200-day average, a drawdown that matches the late-2022 low. Those are numbers worth repeating for emphasis.
Here is the part that keeps this from being a catastrophe. That same high-beta momentum basket is STILL up about 16% for the year after peaking near +60%. This is a violent give-back of an enormous gain, not a wealth-destroying collapse. The single-stock casualties show where the crowd was hiding: in semiconductors.
It Is A Rotation, Not A Collapse
If money were fleeing the market, you would see it everywhere, but that is not the case. The equal-weight S&P 500 fell less than half a percent on the week and printed a new all-time high midweek, while defensive and cyclical value groups finished green. Energy led following the oil spike, and real estate, staples, and financials all gained. That is not what a market top looks like. That is capital rotating out of the most crowded corner and into everything else.
The leadership under the surface has quietly flipped. Look at what is working against what is breaking, and the rotation is obvious. Security-software names like Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, which benefit from AI adoption without the semiconductor bottleneck risk, are catching the bid alongside energy and the banks. The mega-cap AI generals held up far better than the speculative fringe, with Nvidia down under 4% and both Microsoft and Amazon actually positive on the week. The pain was surgical, not broad.
What Actually Broke The Trade
Four forces hit at once, which is why the move was so violent; the setup was a positioning problem. Momentum had been the undisputed king of 2026, and nearly everyone owned it, leaving no marginal buyer when selling started. The trigger came from leverage. In Asia, single-stock leveraged ETFs on names like SK Hynix had ballooned, and when the underlying prices dipped, those funds were forced to sell to maintain their 2x exposure, which fed a self-reinforcing unwind. Korea moved to halt new listings of these products midweek.
On top of that, China’s Kimi K3 release cracked the assumption that US AI leadership was unassailable, and the oil spike from renewed Iran tensions revived a macro risk the momentum crowd had stopped pricing. The June index-rebalancing that had provided a price-insensitive buyer for winners like SpaceX and Marvell was gone. Take away the buyer, add forced sellers, and you get a washout.
The lesson of every crowded-trade unwind is the same. The factor that leads on the way up leads on the way down, and the exit door is always narrower than the entrance.
Goldman’s own desk offers a hopeful footnote. Once the momentum factor drops more than 20% in a month, forward returns have tended to be positive, with a median gain near 4% over the following week and close to 6% over the following month. The path is rarely smooth, and next week’s reports are the swing factor. Notably, a violent factor unwind is often closer to an opportunity than to the start of a bear market. Yes, that is an optimistic case, but it is a real one to consider given the rash of negative headlines this past week.
The Earnings-Quality Problem Underneath The Rally
There is a deeper issue that the momentum crowd has been willing to ignore, and it goes to the quality of the earnings that are holding up the AI trade. Take Alphabet’s blockbuster first quarter. The headline was a record, but tens of billions of it came from mark-to-market gains on private stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX, not from the operating business. Stripping the paper gain would have caused the estimate to be missed. That is not a one-off quirk. Across the hyperscalers, a wave of AI capital spending is being depreciated over long schedules that assume these chips and data centers will earn their keep for years, thereby inflating near-term margins and quietly deferring the true cost.
We walked through that dynamic in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/capex-spending-on-ai-is-masking-economic-weakness/, and it is the reason next week’s reports carry so much weight. The moment the market decides to pay for cash flow and earnings quality rather than capex headlines, the most crowded and most expensive names carry the most risk. Momentum had been priced for perfection. Perfection is an expensive thing to own the moment the story starts to wobble.
Why There Could Be More To Go
It helps to separate two ideas. The momentum meltdown is the event, and the violent two-week repricing we just lived through. The momentum shift is the bigger thing, a change in market leadership away from the narrow band of high-beta and semiconductor names that carried 2026 and toward the broad market underneath. The first can end in a week. The second is a process, and history says leadership changes take months to resolve, not days. That distinction applies to patience here, and it is why I think more air can still come out before this is finished.
The math tells you why the shift may not be over. As discussed above, following the worst two weeks since 2009, the high-beta momentum basket is still up about 16% on the year. That is the give-back of a parabola, not a full reset. Positioning has been reduced, but it has not capitulated, and not a single US semiconductor is even oversold yet on a 14-day RSI basis. Washouts of this scale rarely resolve in one clean flush. They tend to arrive in waves, with sharp relief rallies that pull money back in right before the next leg lower.
The healthy read is that the average stock is doing fine while the crowd unwinds. The cautious read is that the unwind still has fuel in the tank. This is because the crowd is sitting on a full year of gains it may yet decide to protect. Both can be true at once. That tension is exactly why the tape has felt so violent under a calm surface.
The Macro Has Turned Against The Trade
Here is where this week’s other headline matters. In https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/inflation-will-be-a-thing-of-the-past-kevin-warsh/, we covered Kevin Warsh’s first testimony to Congress. The message was not what a momentum trader wants to hear. Warsh told lawmakers the Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” He also pointedly refused to offer forward guidance, arguing that published projections only breed confirmation bias. June CPI actually showed prices falling 0.4% on the month, and yet the committee is still split on the odds of a rate hike in September, not a cut.
Now read that against this week’s tape. Oil just jumped roughly 14% on renewed Iran tensions, which threatens to undo the very disinflation that gave Warsh room to sound patient. A hawkish Fed with no rate cut on the horizon and no forward guidance to lean on is the opposite of the backdrop that inflated the momentum trade in the first place. The most expensive, longest-duration growth names need falling rates and easy liquidity to justify their multiples. Right now, they are getting neither, and policy uncertainty alone widens the risk premium the market demands to hold them.
None of this is a forecast of a bear market. It is a reminder that a leadership shift, once it begins, usually runs longer and further than the first move suggests. Here are both sides of the ledger, laid out honestly.
Weigh the calendar, too. We noted previously that the risk of a larger market correction (5-10%) is highest in August through October. That is particularly true given the upcoming mid-term elections. Those three months are historically the weakest stretch of the year anyway. However, the election uncertainty adds to that risk, and this unwind is landing right as we walk into it. That does not mean you sell everything and hide. It means you respect the shift. Therefore, keep tight risk controls on the crowded names, and let the earnings and the tape confirm the next move.
🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week
Next week, the Federal Reserve goes silent. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting puts the committee in its blackout window, so there are no Fed speakers to move the tape. That leaves two things in charge: the economic data and the start of mega-cap earnings, with the second being the main event.
Wednesday after the close is the night that matters. Alphabet, Tesla, and Texas Instruments all report at once, and Intel follows on Thursday evening. This is the first real referendum on the AI-capex story since the momentum trade cracked. Alphabet is the tell. The company has guided to roughly $175 billion of capital spending in 2026, and JPMorgan’s desk pegs 2027 buyside expectations for Google alone near $325 to $350 billion, well above a Street consensus closer to $250 billion. If the hyperscalers signal any hesitation on that spend, the chips that depend on it have further to fall. If they reaffirm it, the washed-out names finally get their catalyst.
The setup is loaded. Alphabet’s blowout first-quarter results were flattered by tens of billions in mark-to-market gains on its Anthropic and SpaceX stakes; stripping those out, the operating number would have missed by a hair. That is exactly the earnings-quality question we have been raising for months. The market will judge this print on margins and cloud growth, not on the headline number.
Ed Yardeni has framed the broader mood as a case of AI Fatigue, with investors starting to ask whether the trillion-dollar buildout will ever pay off. The Friday flash PMIs are the data highlight, since they are the first look at how business activity handled the July volatility and the oil spike. Everything else bends around Wednesday night. A clean capex message from Alphabet steadies the entire complex. Any wobble, and the momentum meltdown gets a second leg.
What Should Investors Do Now
This is a moment for discipline, not heroics. The rotation is healthy but not finished. Next week’s reports will determine whether the momentum names have found a floor. As we laid out last week in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-narrative-has-turned/, the play into late July is to lean toward the washed-out mega-cap leaders rather than the extended names, and to define the exit at the earnings dates themselves. If Alphabet and the others confirm the capex and cash-flow worries when they report, you sell and move on. If estimates hold, the oversold snapback has room to run.
Keep capital preservation first. An index sitting on its 50-day with a neutral RSI is neither a screaming buy nor a screaming sell. It is a market telling you to rebalance, tighten your stops on the crowded names, and let the earnings do the talking. The momentum meltdown was a warning shot about what happens when everyone owns the same thing at the same time. The momentum shift it kicked off is the story that matters now, and it likely has further to run.
The thread to follow into next week is simple.
Money is not leaving the market. It is rotating hard, and the tape will not settle until the crowd finishes repositioning.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 09:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/traders-stunned-momentum-meltdown-earnings-quality-problem-simmers-under-surface
US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict
US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict
The escalation pathway in the renewed tit-for-tat conflict between the US and Iran is becoming increasingly alarming and has been underway for eight days.
US forces reportedly struck Qeshm Island and the southern Iranian cities of Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, while Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting US bases and critical infrastructure across Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, according to https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/us-iran-trade-more-attacks-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan, citing Iranian state media.
The latest escalation could open the door for Israel to rejoin the fight. Itamar Ben Gvir, an Israeli security cabinet minister, told listeners on Israeli radio that he hoped President Trump would strike Iran hard.
Iran's latest attacks moved beyond military targets to now civilian infrastructure, which has been troubling.
Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity warned earlier today that its power and desalination plants have come under attack for the second straight day by Iranian projectiles.
BREAKING: Kuwait says power and water desalination plant attacked for second time in two days
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/jKP76o4RPX https://t.co/5IoegG3wJv
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) https://x.com/AJENews/status/2078806014715961755?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
US Central Command described the latest US strikes as seeking to reduce Tehran's offensive capabilities on the Strait of Hormuz that threaten commercial shipping and "swiftly punish" Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces behind the Jordan attack that killed two US soldiers and left another missing in action.
U.S. forces pound Iran for the eighth straight night as CENTCOM releases new footage following Iranian missile and drone attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed two U.S. service members. A third remains missing.
CENTCOM says forces "successfully hit Iranian military coastal… https://t.co/0jc8TZBzdo
— Fox News (@FoxNews) https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2078795022585954418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
By now, the interim ceasefire deal signed by the US and Iran is in flames, as US forces have renewed their blockade of Iranian ports and the Trump team has tightened sanctions on Tehran's oil exports
An overnight report from https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260719-us-iran-strikes-latest-developments stated:
Iran says nuclear plant being built attacked.
Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said the United States attacked an under-construction nuclear power plant in Darkhovin, in the country's southwest.
Previous days US-Iran Wrap:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kuwait-pounded-iranian-barrage-oil-and-desalination-plants-come-under-attack
Polymarket: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Military Tit-For-Tat Escalation
- Two US service members were killed and another went missing in action during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan on Friday; four others were evacuated to Jordanian hospitals.
- The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight Saturday, hitting Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf and southern cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, according to Iranian media.
- Iran suspended its commitments under the interim deal with the US as both sides continued exchanging strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
- Bahrain said it intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks on Sunday.
- Jordan evacuated Aqaba's airport and seaport due to a specific and credible threat, with the US embassy advising Americans to avoid both locations.
Hormuz Chokepoint Tensions
- Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four vessels attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unauthorized route; two were stopped after accidents and two turned back.
- Iran accused the ships of attempting to disrupt transit through the strait with "support from American terrorists" and said they had turned off their navigation systems.
- Iran rushed out approximately $6 billion of oil during a brief truce with the US in mid-June to mid-July, with around 20 Iranian tankers arriving off Malaysia's east coast, with China as the likely ultimate destination, according to analysts, per the Wall Street Journal.
Regional Impact & Kuwait Strikes Crisis
- Kuwait suffered some of its worst Iranian retaliatory attacks, with strikes on a vital oil facility causing significant damage and injuries, and a second power plant hit in as many days.
- Kuwait airport suspended flights and Kuwait Airways rescheduled the majority of its flights following the attacks.
- Iraq is using a large fleet of trucks to carry fuel through Syria to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly making Syria the Middle East's top export hub, accounting for more than a quarter of regional volumes.
Oil Market Woes
- Renewed fighting is raising the risk of an oil price spike as global supply buffers have been worn thin, with emergency stockpile releases and reduced Chinese imports having previously helped avert a crisis when the Strait of Hormuz first closed in March.
- Concerns over re-escalation of the war pushed oil prices sharply higher following Iran's heavy attacks on Kuwait.
Ahead of US futures opening later today, IG's Weekend Oil and US Crude are up about 2%.
The IG oil market is a weekend CFD market that lets traders speculate on where WTI crude will reopen when regular futures trading resumes Sunday evening.
On Friday, Brent crude futures jumped 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil on track for its biggest weekly gain since April.
A must-read this weekend as Hormuz normalization dramatically slows:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/weve-burned-through-all-buffers-oil-traders-warn-market-running-fumes
Bloomberg data show transits in the Strait of Hormuz come to a standstill …
Continued read:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/jpm-big-question-no-longer-about-hormuz-and-oil-its-all-about-refining-and-russia
https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year can tap our new https://marketdesk.ai/ portal to read the latest on energy and Hormuz.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-tit-tat-spirals-towards-broader-conflict
US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict
The escalation pathway in the renewed tit-for-tat conflict between the US and Iran is becoming increasingly alarming and has been underway for eight days.
US forces reportedly struck Qeshm Island and the southern Iranian cities of Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, while Tehran retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting US bases and critical infrastructure across Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, according to https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/us-iran-trade-more-attacks-after-two-troops-killed-in-jordan, citing Iranian state media.
The latest escalation could open the door for Israel to rejoin the fight. Itamar Ben Gvir, an Israeli security cabinet minister, told listeners on Israeli radio that he hoped President Trump would strike Iran hard.
Iran's latest attacks moved beyond military targets to now civilian infrastructure, which has been troubling.
Kuwaiti Ministry of Electricity warned earlier today that its power and desalination plants have come under attack for the second straight day by Iranian projectiles.
BREAKING: Kuwait says power and water desalination plant attacked for second time in two days
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/jKP76o4RPX https://t.co/5IoegG3wJv
— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) https://x.com/AJENews/status/2078806014715961755?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
US Central Command described the latest US strikes as seeking to reduce Tehran's offensive capabilities on the Strait of Hormuz that threaten commercial shipping and "swiftly punish" Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces behind the Jordan attack that killed two US soldiers and left another missing in action.
U.S. forces pound Iran for the eighth straight night as CENTCOM releases new footage following Iranian missile and drone attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed two U.S. service members. A third remains missing.
CENTCOM says forces "successfully hit Iranian military coastal… https://t.co/0jc8TZBzdo
— Fox News (@FoxNews) https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2078795022585954418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
By now, the interim ceasefire deal signed by the US and Iran is in flames, as US forces have renewed their blockade of Iranian ports and the Trump team has tightened sanctions on Tehran's oil exports
An overnight report from https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260719-us-iran-strikes-latest-developments stated:
Iran says nuclear plant being built attacked.
Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said the United States attacked an under-construction nuclear power plant in Darkhovin, in the country's southwest.
Previous days US-Iran Wrap:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kuwait-pounded-iranian-barrage-oil-and-desalination-plants-come-under-attack
Polymarket: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Military Tit-For-Tat Escalation
- Two US service members were killed and another went missing in action during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan on Friday; four others were evacuated to Jordanian hospitals.
- The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight Saturday, hitting Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf and southern cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, according to Iranian media.
- Iran suspended its commitments under the interim deal with the US as both sides continued exchanging strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
- Bahrain said it intercepted several Iranian aerial attacks on Sunday.
- Jordan evacuated Aqaba's airport and seaport due to a specific and credible threat, with the US embassy advising Americans to avoid both locations.
Hormuz Chokepoint Tensions
- Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four vessels attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unauthorized route; two were stopped after accidents and two turned back.
- Iran accused the ships of attempting to disrupt transit through the strait with "support from American terrorists" and said they had turned off their navigation systems.
- Iran rushed out approximately $6 billion of oil during a brief truce with the US in mid-June to mid-July, with around 20 Iranian tankers arriving off Malaysia's east coast, with China as the likely ultimate destination, according to analysts, per the Wall Street Journal.
Regional Impact & Kuwait Strikes Crisis
- Kuwait suffered some of its worst Iranian retaliatory attacks, with strikes on a vital oil facility causing significant damage and injuries, and a second power plant hit in as many days.
- Kuwait airport suspended flights and Kuwait Airways rescheduled the majority of its flights following the attacks.
- Iraq is using a large fleet of trucks to carry fuel through Syria to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly making Syria the Middle East's top export hub, accounting for more than a quarter of regional volumes.
Oil Market Woes
- Renewed fighting is raising the risk of an oil price spike as global supply buffers have been worn thin, with emergency stockpile releases and reduced Chinese imports having previously helped avert a crisis when the Strait of Hormuz first closed in March.
- Concerns over re-escalation of the war pushed oil prices sharply higher following Iran's heavy attacks on Kuwait.
Ahead of US futures opening later today, IG's Weekend Oil and US Crude are up about 2%.
The IG oil market is a weekend CFD market that lets traders speculate on where WTI crude will reopen when regular futures trading resumes Sunday evening.
On Friday, Brent crude futures jumped 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil on track for its biggest weekly gain since April.
A must-read this weekend as Hormuz normalization dramatically slows:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/weve-burned-through-all-buffers-oil-traders-warn-market-running-fumes
Bloomberg data show transits in the Strait of Hormuz come to a standstill …
Continued read:
- https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/jpm-big-question-no-longer-about-hormuz-and-oil-its-all-about-refining-and-russia
https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year can tap our new https://marketdesk.ai/ portal to read the latest on energy and Hormuz.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-tit-tat-spirals-towards-broader-conflict
French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket
French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket
https://cointelegraph.com/news/french-gambling-authority-blocks-polymarket
France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.
Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday https://anj.fr/promotion-illegal-gambling-services-blocking-polymarket-website.
The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not authorized in France and that advertising unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense with fines of up to 100,000 euros ($114,000).
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from elections and sporting events to economic data and geopolitical developments. Polymarket has surged in popularity over the past two years, with billions of dollars in trading volume, while drawing scrutiny from regulators over whether its event contracts constitute illegal gambling or unlicensed financial products.
Countries that blocked access to Polymarket include https://cointelegraph.com/news/singapore-blocks-user-access-to-polymarket-citing-gambling-concerns, Poland, https://cointelegraph.com/news/hungary-portugal-block-polymarket-prediction-market, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-unlicensed-gambling, https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-polymarket-among-27-prediction-platforms-banned-in-brazil and https://cointelegraph.com/news/indonesia-blocks-polymarket-bets-presidents-exit. At press time, Polymarket https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock it was geoblocked in 36 regions.
France’s gambling regulator first https://cointelegraph.com/news/france-ban-crypto-betting-platform-polymarket plans to block the platform in November 2024 for failing to comply with national gambling laws.
French gambling authority cites outcome manipulation concerns
France’s gambling authority said Polymarket boasts “addictive features” that are similar to regulated gambling offerings, but “amplified by the absence of the protective mechanisms found in the legal gambling market.”
It also cited potential outcome manipulation tied to some event contracts on Polymarket, adding:
“Some of the bets offered on this platform appeared to be rigged: for example, bets on the weather revealed that weather sensors may have been hacked.”
The cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into this matter in May 2026 and found a lack of identity verification, such as Know Your Customer checks.
Prediction markets have also drawn scrutiny from US regulators. On June 17, https://cointelegraph.com/news/kentucky-sues-kalshi-polymarket-joining-prediction-market-legal-battle prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. At least 17 other states have followed suit.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-sues-new-mexico-over-prediction-market-jurisdiction, arguing they had interfered with the federal regulator’s exclusive authority over federally regulated event contracts.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/french-gambling-regulator-orders-isps-block-polymarket
French Gambling Regulator Orders ISPs To Block Polymarket
https://cointelegraph.com/news/french-gambling-authority-blocks-polymarket
France’s Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), or the National Gambling Authority, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.
Prediction websites are considered illegal gambling, the ANJ said in a Friday https://anj.fr/promotion-illegal-gambling-services-blocking-polymarket-website.
The regulator said that Polymarket’s operations are not authorized in France and that advertising unauthorized gambling sites constitutes a criminal offense with fines of up to 100,000 euros ($114,000).
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, from elections and sporting events to economic data and geopolitical developments. Polymarket has surged in popularity over the past two years, with billions of dollars in trading volume, while drawing scrutiny from regulators over whether its event contracts constitute illegal gambling or unlicensed financial products.
Countries that blocked access to Polymarket include https://cointelegraph.com/news/singapore-blocks-user-access-to-polymarket-citing-gambling-concerns, Poland, https://cointelegraph.com/news/hungary-portugal-block-polymarket-prediction-market, https://cointelegraph.com/news/ukraine-blocks-polymarket-unlicensed-gambling, https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-polymarket-among-27-prediction-platforms-banned-in-brazil and https://cointelegraph.com/news/indonesia-blocks-polymarket-bets-presidents-exit. At press time, Polymarket https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock it was geoblocked in 36 regions.
France’s gambling regulator first https://cointelegraph.com/news/france-ban-crypto-betting-platform-polymarket plans to block the platform in November 2024 for failing to comply with national gambling laws.
French gambling authority cites outcome manipulation concerns
France’s gambling authority said Polymarket boasts “addictive features” that are similar to regulated gambling offerings, but “amplified by the absence of the protective mechanisms found in the legal gambling market.”
It also cited potential outcome manipulation tied to some event contracts on Polymarket, adding:
“Some of the bets offered on this platform appeared to be rigged: for example, bets on the weather revealed that weather sensors may have been hacked.”
The cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office launched an investigation into this matter in May 2026 and found a lack of identity verification, such as Know Your Customer checks.
Prediction markets have also drawn scrutiny from US regulators. On June 17, https://cointelegraph.com/news/kentucky-sues-kalshi-polymarket-joining-prediction-market-legal-battle prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms. At least 17 other states have followed suit.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-sues-new-mexico-over-prediction-market-jurisdiction, arguing they had interfered with the federal regulator’s exclusive authority over federally regulated event contracts.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 08:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/french-gambling-regulator-orders-isps-block-polymarket
Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence
Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence
In the latest development related to what some analysts have called the 'new Cold War' and nuclear saber-rattling between Russia and the West, Germany and France are planning a major nuclear exercise later this year.
The atomic drills were announced Friday, after a joint top-level meeting of the French and German governments near Cologne. "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/germany-part-french-nuclear-exercise-174512402.html.
He detailed while at a press event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron that a "strategic steering group" established by the leading European allies would continue looking at deterrence in the future, with an eye on Russia.
"This is complementary to our nuclear participation and deterrence within NATO, which we still hold to," he added. He also previewed "a maneuver in the autumn held on the initiative of France" - while speaking of the Ukraine war.
"We will clarify together what form exactly this participation will take," he said.
France is newly positioning itself at the forefront of nuclear deterrence for Europe, a role that the United States has long assumed, and currently still does.
According to some of Macron's statements at the same event: "Patriotism, yes; nationalism, never. At a time when Europe is rearming, to think that each of us separately accumulating capabilities is the way history is going is absurd." More details have been offered in the fhttps://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/germany-part-french-nuclear-exercise-174512402.html:
Mr Macron and Mr Merz began the defence council at Nörvenich air base beside a https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/06/france-rafale-fighter-jets-china-pakistan-india/ and a https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/02/prime-minister-safe-europe-defence-disaster-collaboration/ – a symbolic backdrop after the aircraft designed to replace them was scrapped.
Nuclear deterrence offers one field where the strained partnership can still move forward.
German troops would play a conventional supporting role and would not control French weapons. Berlin will also help develop radar and space-based systems for detecting ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
Currently the United States and the UK, which both maintain nuclear arsenals, form the core of NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy. While France also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not yet participate on a leadership level in NATO's nuclear planning group. The US military also contributes F-35, refueling aircraft, and other support planes.
Germany's Chancellor Merz:
For the first time, I have accepted the offer made by the French President to jointly think about nuclear deterrence.
Historically speaking, General Charles de Gaulle had already offered the Federal Republic of Germany a French nuclear umbrella many… https://t.co/lIug2JjqVB
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2078132145273364953?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Russia has not infrequently held its own strategic drills over the course of the last several years of war in Ukraine. It has also become the https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dueling-military-drills-might-become-new-normal-central-eastern-europe for Russia and Europe to hold rival conventional war games, amid threats, warnings and ongoing miliary flexing.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germany-join-french-nuclear-exercise-deepening-counter-russia-deterrence
Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening 'Counter-Russia' Deterrence
In the latest development related to what some analysts have called the 'new Cold War' and nuclear saber-rattling between Russia and the West, Germany and France are planning a major nuclear exercise later this year.
The atomic drills were announced Friday, after a joint top-level meeting of the French and German governments near Cologne. "Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/germany-part-french-nuclear-exercise-174512402.html.
He detailed while at a press event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron that a "strategic steering group" established by the leading European allies would continue looking at deterrence in the future, with an eye on Russia.
"This is complementary to our nuclear participation and deterrence within NATO, which we still hold to," he added. He also previewed "a maneuver in the autumn held on the initiative of France" - while speaking of the Ukraine war.
"We will clarify together what form exactly this participation will take," he said.
France is newly positioning itself at the forefront of nuclear deterrence for Europe, a role that the United States has long assumed, and currently still does.
According to some of Macron's statements at the same event: "Patriotism, yes; nationalism, never. At a time when Europe is rearming, to think that each of us separately accumulating capabilities is the way history is going is absurd." More details have been offered in the fhttps://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/germany-part-french-nuclear-exercise-174512402.html:
Mr Macron and Mr Merz began the defence council at Nörvenich air base beside a https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/06/france-rafale-fighter-jets-china-pakistan-india/ and a https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/02/prime-minister-safe-europe-defence-disaster-collaboration/ – a symbolic backdrop after the aircraft designed to replace them was scrapped.
Nuclear deterrence offers one field where the strained partnership can still move forward.
German troops would play a conventional supporting role and would not control French weapons. Berlin will also help develop radar and space-based systems for detecting ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
Currently the United States and the UK, which both maintain nuclear arsenals, form the core of NATO's nuclear deterrence strategy. While France also possesses nuclear weapons, it does not yet participate on a leadership level in NATO's nuclear planning group. The US military also contributes F-35, refueling aircraft, and other support planes.
Germany's Chancellor Merz:
For the first time, I have accepted the offer made by the French President to jointly think about nuclear deterrence.
Historically speaking, General Charles de Gaulle had already offered the Federal Republic of Germany a French nuclear umbrella many… https://t.co/lIug2JjqVB
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2078132145273364953?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Russia has not infrequently held its own strategic drills over the course of the last several years of war in Ukraine. It has also become the https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dueling-military-drills-might-become-new-normal-central-eastern-europe for Russia and Europe to hold rival conventional war games, amid threats, warnings and ongoing miliary flexing.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 07/19/2026 - 07:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germany-join-french-nuclear-exercise-deepening-counter-russia-deterrence