Iran doesn't seem intimidated at all and has just released another Lego video mocking the coalition.

China: Any Serious Prognosis is Challenging

When I see the news about suffocating China with more sanctions citing Boeing, I remember that the Chinese are already flying an aircraft with national engine and avionics, and the Russians are heading down the same path.

The Chinese are developing simultaneously not one, but four commercial aviation engines simultaneously, with one model already flying in tests for over a year.

They will not only enter this market competitively, but they will also cover whatever is missing from the Russian materials to compete in the market.

Sanctions have turbocharged Chinese industrial development and, to a certain extent, Russia's as well. But Chinese development has been frightening; it doesn't compare to Russia's or any other.

In the face of U.S. sanctions, they went from 14 nm chips in 2020 to 7 nm chips in 2023 and plan to present a 5 nm chip by the end of the year, while today they already have domestic machines for 28 nm chips. Only the U.S. had put the Chinese on the chip blacklist, and after a few years, the Chinese banned NVIDIA precisely because they evolved their domestic industry so quickly.

I'm talking about chips, but the pressure from sanctions activated an entire chain of research in China far beyond what the U.S. predicted. They are flying not one or two, but three prototypes of sixth-generation aircraft.

The Western sanctions mechanism always aims to delay the evolution of something specific or of an entire nation, but with large economies, this effect is inverse. The West gained no time at all and, quite the contrary.

It gained no time mainly because it did nothing different from what it had been doing.

The West behaves like the typical case of the children who inherited their parents' business: they are watching it become outdated and have no idea how to reverse it, because they have always been more interested in reaping the fruits.

There is still time for the U.S. and Europe, but the solution is far beyond sanctions.

Citing Europe, for example, the continent not only severed its relations with a major raw materials supplier, which is Russia, for obvious reasons, but has also had a bad time in its relations with Africa. What future plan can come out of this?

At the current pace, in about 15 years, the trade volume between China and Europe will be smaller than that between China and Africa. Similarly, in less than 10 years, the Chinese volume with Latin America should be greater than with Europe. In other words, Europe will not change the wind; it will just let it pass, a big mistake.

There is a complete lack of planning, long-term vision, and understanding of the challenging scenario they face precisely because they refuse to engage in the economic game; they always want to focus on sanctioning competitors. The world has changed a lot, and it's no longer possible to sanction large economies, and the Ukrainian war let it clear, but this realization hasn't sunk in in the West, which in recent years has created enormous bureaucracy for approving policies and development projects. The world must be preserved, but this has to be done without stopping development.

This crisis will not be resolved with bullets.

If the West doesn't move, entering the game, the Chinese will break the few monopolies that the West still holds.

Another phenomenon is that the Chinese are serving as an example for other Asian nations, boosting an entire mentality of long-term planning, a lot of R&D, and a lot of infrastructure.

Venezuela Publishes Photos in Bunkers

The Venezuelan National Guard released images of one of over 60 bunkers scattered across the country, suggesting they are prepared to resist.

In recent days, they conducted exercises with ships and helicopters, reinforcing their willingness to endure.

Most Venezuelan bunkers are primarily narrow, interconnected tunnels designed for single armored vehicles at a time.

From the around some of the areas near here, I’ve noticed increased movement of the Venezuelan military. This coincided with the abandonment of diplomatic talks announced by the US.

Rare Earth Elements and the War Machine

The U.S. is at a crossroads, just like the West, but they find themselves there due to lack of planning.

With China's control over rare earths, how will the U.S. produce its arsenal?

An F-35 consumes over 400kg of rare minerals, while an Arleigh Burke destroyer uses 2,600kg, and a Virginia-class submarine consumes 4,600kg.

I'll go further and say that the upcoming Constellation frigate will require no less than 2,000kg of rare minerals to be launched.

And it doesn’t stop there,each Patriot missile or other modern American missile will consume at least 0.5-1kg of rare minerals for unit.

Radars, space projects,everything requires rare earth minerals.

The U.S.’s lack of planning is enormous, but Europe's is even worse because it relies heavily on American dependence.

The solution is to do what the Chinese do: invest in global infrastructure, rebuild ties with nations, and restore the global supply chain.

This would boost the competitiveness of American industry, which has the resources to fund huge energy projects that can lower energy costs to almost nothing, just like subsidizing wages.

But for that to happen, the West needs to shut down the mafias that hinder development.

No one in China questions national sovereignty for the sake of profits from selling expensive energy. If someone doesn’t fit into the framework of a competitive, state-driven system, they’re out of the game.

The Venezuelan government claims that an attack on the country is imminent, and they might be right.

There are no longer ships based in Puerto Rico; all are close to Venezuela, and flights are continuously transferring equipment to Trinidad and Tobago. Guyana and the Dominican Republic have already been cooperating closely with the U.S. since the beginning.

The situation for the Venezuelan government is delicate. I don't doubt Maduro has offered everything, but Trump still refused.

Although Venezuela possesses capable aircraft and anti-ship missions that could cause significant damage to the American fleet, its arsenal lacks anti-aircraft batteries at sea, where American drones are positioned. Without them, deploying Iranian boats would be suicidal.

The best scenario for Venezuela would be a land invasion, which would extend into urban warfare, but probably without a unified force.

Venezuela has faced several coup threats in recent years. Over a dozen generals and colonels have been arrested, and the list of lower-ranking officers exceeds 100.

A confrontation is very likely, but Maduro is not Chavez, and the government charisma and relationship with the military are much worse now than they were 15 years ago.

The great unknown is the loyalty of the troops. The rest will follow the script.

Some points about Iran:

1 - The air defenses are partially functioning and were tested twice in the last month. However, some components are still missing for all systems to be fully repaired.

2 - Missile cities – Iran has at least one to two hundred underground missile cities; so far, only about two dozen have been identified. All Iranian provinces have missile bases, with an estimated 600-1,000 silos.

3 - The Iranian government is going through a tough time, still recovering from the last conflict and facing water and energy shortages. The country is not in a condition to engage in another war. It’s possible that Israel/US use this moment to try to overthrow the government.

4 - Both the Chinese and the Russians have been reticent in providing air defense and aviation support within the timeframe Iran requested, but negotiations are ongoing. The Russians have sent some MiG-29s, which do not influence the overall scenario.

5 - The Iranian navy can act in a future attack. During the 12 days of conflict, the Iranian navy avoided escalating the war, but Iran has submarines capable of attacking ports in Israel. A new round of conflict between the two countries is likely to involve more forces than the first.

I see chances of attacks on Iran, but once again, I say that Israel is not in a condition to pull off such a feat. The damage from those 12 days approached $50 billion. The US has low stockpiles of missile defense systems and would also need more time.