This checks out…terrible day of coding with Fable.

NGU (transmitting value over time) is a key feature of bitcoin but it has broken from past cycles and class of 2021 has felt intense price and time pain relative to the past classes. $65k+ in 2021 to $58k in 2026. That’s five years and negative return on investment, let alone risk-adjustment (two 50% drawdowns, one 75% drawdown (so far)). What should the narrative become around Bitcoin’s purchasing power appreciation within the bitcoin podcast echo chamber. What should bitcoiners do to fight and advocate to no coiners in facing this emerging reality that so many “recent” adopters are facing. Please spare me the cherry picking of dates in your answer(s).

I subscribe to the Simon Dixon view that the “OG IPO” was a manufactured narrative that offered cover to the technocrats selling a bunch of bitcoin for political favors and a bigger seat at the global power table. “They” suppressed the price this cycle so that retail would stay out and give the banks a chance to play the new game on their terms.

Over 20M bitcoin have been issued…we spent a year hovering at 100k. I expect the return of scarcity economics once the banks have been cleared to fully participate in bitcoin and retail realizes this thing isn’t going to go to zero.

It might be an S curve and we’re in the middle of the bend flat before the exponential run. I agree with you that the NGU narrative has been hurt…but that’s directed at retail. Hashrate is still very high and institutional adoption seems to be rapidly progressing. Unless everyone is lying (which is possible but I would think unlikely) we’ve got to be close to seller fatigue. I mean if you haven’t sold yet, why would you sell? Only 450 bitcoin issued per day…everything else is competition for the slack.

But maybe I am wrong.

Bad until it’s good.

The “masterminds” discussions stopped just as the music stopped and the real accountability would have made them fun to listen to. Man that @Dr. Jeff $475k/bitty call looks horrendous in hindsight… 😂😬

Could go to zero…just saying. 🙄

So the lack of blow-off top doesn’t change the downside risk? It drops 80% regardless of the length of accumulation around the peak? I just think this has been an entirely different “cycle” than past cycles…why would the bottom reflect past cycles, too?

This is an incredibly smooth brain take. You’ll be waiting forever.