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Recent Notes

Starting to get the hang of climbing on rock rather than plastic.

I'll be back to finish "Haunted by a Million Screams" (7a)

#DancingLedge #RockClimbing 🧗‍♂️

TheBitcoinManual · 6d

STRC buyers holding waiting for the stonk to bottom out because they think the dividend payments are going to be worth it https://npub10mxnle348mzv2dnj0ylgz3zu9gceenc29x9fr4m6mnars66j7vxsnkn8mj.bloss...

ed @ed 1781907719

They’ll raise the dividend rate & rebuild the cash reserve.

I’d bet a million sats it hits par within a month

https://www.youtube.com/live/2i53LqG87Yw?t=1241

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cuban · 6d

I keep seeing people equating mstr and ftx ... I think it's more like gBTC (grayscale) with a little leverage and a cash pile to pay debt They have 850k + BTC, they don't go away or explode overnight...

ed @ed 1781906811

You’re wrong about them having to use their cash for dividends. Cash reserves have *increased* by $200m in the past two weeks. Expecting another $100m on Monday

Off by an order of magnitude on the 2 - 3 years. They have enough Bitcoin to pay the divys for ~30 years at the current price

cuban · 6d

I understand, explaining the worst case but this is the issue with conversations on here about them It's either fanboys or people drooling for it to explode

gojiberra · 6d

ed @ed 1781879146

That sats per share figure doesn’t take into account the senior claims on the Bitcoin (I.e. from debt + prefs)

It’s still a useful metric tho. The senior claims are denominated in fiat. So (if you’re a bitcoiner you might assume they’ll) tend in the long run to zero against the bitcoin

CEBE sats per share subtracts the senior claims. It’s at ~140k sats rn which is below the current share price. https://cebetracker.io/company/MSTR/

𝕞ptf · 6d

Although not your keys, not your corn 🌽 is still in play

𝕞ptf · 6d

dude, take your head out of Saylors ass and look at it from the perspective of people buying MSTR now.. THEY FUCKED! Same as STRC... it is only a matter of time before he has to reneg on the dividen...

ed @ed 1781873574

I disagree.

If you buy MSTR thinking you’re gonna outperform BTC by the end of the year. Sure you might get fucked. If you’re time horizon is 5-10 years, today is a much better entry than last summer

They are *categorically* nowhere near close to having to “reneg on the dividends”

If you actually look at the numbers… they have about 30 years of dividend coverage. I.e. Bitcoin could drop ~70% from here & it would still take about a decade for them to run out of money

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gojiberra · 6d

is this Bitcoin Per Share (in Sats) really true? i just calculated $180 share... that just seems too good to be true. makes me very tempted to sell bitcoin to by MSTR, which is a big "no-no" but it's tempting nonetheless--if that 219,360 Sats/share + Bitcoin YTD of 12.5% is really true. https:/...

𝕞ptf · 6d

I don't disagree with you man and in theory you are right. Saylor is a slow rug, like most stocks. Appreciate your opinion, has some merits.

𝕞ptf · 6d

It has a chance to comeback. STRC Dividends probably need to be dropped though 😅. Reputation damage from that might hinder the stock

ed @ed 1781871057

They can comfortably afford to pay the dividend & raise it by a % or two to get it back to par.

They can sell BTC / MSTR to fund divys, which might be dilutive to the common in the short term. But BTC yield YTD is at 12.5%. What more could you ask for in a bear market 🤷‍♂️

Honestly, BTC yield could go negative for a year & it wouldn’t invalidate the business model