Damus

Recent Notes

Jeff Booth · 3d
Like gold - if you build derivative games on top of bitcoin (inflationary money) and people use it, and try to get higher interest rates in it to keep up with prices going up, many people will choose ...
Toby McMann profile picture
Thank you. Very thought provoking and appreciated. Sorry for the delayed response.

Your thinking is next level. Mine is not. So I am learning and appreciate your patience. My understanding...

Derivatives on gold effectively increase the supply, putting downward pressure on price through rehypothication. In other words, paper gold and physical gold are treated as (near) perfect substitutes. I think this describes the situation?

I am not sure that investors in treasury company preferreds are treating them as substitutes to bitcoin. I think they are betting bitcoin's price will go up "enough" over time (and Strategy's holdings and ability to attract capital will remain sufficient) to keep the dividends coming, and ideally keep the preferred price near par.

Conversely, investors in Strategy common are largely betting bitcoin goes up a lot. Around Saylor's assumption of a 30% CAGR. With leverage provided by the converts and preferred, the common is a leveraged bet on bitcoin.

Strategy is not (yet) lending out its bitcoin. Its shares are not perfect substitues. So I dont see rehypothication from their activities. Instead, I see Strategy bringing capital to the network by facilitating an more granular alignment of risk appetite for various investors. That is the value that Saylor is creating. He is building Bitcoin's yield curve.

But, again, I dont see the value coming from rehypothication or increased supply from substitutes. I dont see a centralization of control from these activities. So I am not sure we will need a fork. Or the medium of exchange use case to solve the problem, etc.

But, again, I fully appreciate your thinking is beyond mine in many ways. Just thought I would be transparent, if it helps align our communities view of the situation and risks?

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Ricky Zhang · 3d
This is a fundamentally self-contradictory statement: "That is the value that Saylor is creating. He is building Bitcoin's yield curve." Bitcoin has no yield, so building a yield curve just means reintroducing the credit-money stack that bitcoin was designed to retire: someone, somewhere, is now ta...
Jeff Booth · 3d
I find it ironic that the of return that underlies the treasury model business requires Bitcoin to be a currency and that their own businesses impair that outcome. If they want to get away with the d...
Toby McMann profile picture
The treasury company model, at least in its current form -- loaded up with preferreds -- requires NGU, and by a lot.

Are you saying that, for the price to increase a lot, we need bitcoin to be used for payments?

The problem, I think, is medium of exchange will benefit from less volatility. But number go up (a lot) needs volatility.

So, do the treasury companies really want to push a medium of exchange narrative? I dont think so? 🤔



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Jeff Booth · 3d
Like gold - if you build derivative games on top of bitcoin (inflationary money) and people use it, and try to get higher interest rates in it to keep up with prices going up, many people will choose that (they need the income to support prices unnaturally rising and it “seems” like a safe bet. ...
Fiat Autopsy · 3d
NGU fuels treasury company models, but payment use won't reduce bitcoin's volatility, a requirement for medium of exchange.
note1e4y3u...
Toby McMann profile picture
I totally agree. It feels like a sad moment.

I got into the space back in 2017. It was hard to find people you could trust. But I started following ODELL. I really admired his willingness to challenge hypocrisy, consistently, over the years. His brand grew on the back of his being true, and trustworthy.

Now, this week, he brushes it all away, casually apologizing to all the hypocrites he rightly called out. Tail between his legs. Saying multiple times, "mistakes were made." Huh? WTF are you talking about, bro?

No mistakes were made, except letting ego trump humility.

Again it is a sad day.

NICO⚡️ · 5d
On Nostr I speak exactly what’s on my mind without any algo optimizations. My feelings, thoughts, experiences. Will continue to do so. On X I’ll continue to advocate for the adoption of self-cus...
Toby McMann profile picture
"I will use Bitcoin when I want to be free. I will continue to do so.

When I use fiat, which is most of the time, I will tell folks that they should be using sound money.

Both bitcoin and fiat are necessary.

But Bitcoin is for my true friends, who I talk to occasionally when I am not talking to everyone else.

People using fiat are the frontline for worldwide Bitcoin adoption.

Love you guys 🧡"

/////

I love how everyone is like, "oh yeah, I am not the change I want to see, because I have to be something different, because I want change."

Makes no sense. Sorry.

Toby McMann profile picture
Saylor sells bitcoin.
ODELL is back on X.
Who can you trust?

At least we still have Nostr.
We still have bitcoin.

Trust the code.
Onward. 🫡


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Based Truth · 5d
Saylor's sell-off a warning sign, Odell's revival a distraction, while Blackrock and Vanguard quietly accumulate.
BitcoinSandy · 1w
He has always been a giant turd nostr:nevent1qqs8fvn6l2vjv94mdvfx8jl0flwpa0c58y7n35x8qfthdsp78taqtyqpspvcg
Toby McMann profile picture
The worst part is he marketed himself as a savior, and smarter than everyone else with more information. He claimed him and his Wall Street buddies knew about the GFC before others, and started this podcast to help plebs avoid similar issues in the future. His original intentions may have been pure.. But Wall Streeters are going to Wall Street, and like a fly to a pile of turd, he falls in love with the casino which is defi. Huge blind spot. Oops.