Damus

Recent Notes

Jeff Booth · 6d
A productivity boom from AI accelerates the debt problem (which is the money most people are measuring through today) versus fixing it. So many people have this backwards. The debt will only be re...
Toby McMann profile picture
Agree. AI's productivity promise is a major problem for the banks and indebted governments. But, if the 1990s are any guide, this problem will ultimately end up back in the lap of savers and holders of the currency.

When you look back to the last major tech advancement -- the internet -- you see prices coming down in the first half of the 1990s. Again, big problem for the banks and government. Greenspan starts priming the pump in the mid-90s, changed the CPI definition in 1996 to mask his expansion of the money supply -- leading to the bubble and crash.

In other words, paraphrasing @Saifedean Ammous, "a slow drain of monetary value over time transfers the wealth of its holders to those who can produce the medium at low cost." The government will need to offset the productivity gain.



floppy · 6d
I like Nate Hagen's idea that money is a claim on energy and materials, and his contrarian opinions about what scarcity will do. This means that geopolitics plays a large role. Being able to find the ...
Toby McMann profile picture
The petrodollar was an example of balancing debt and securing energy/materials through superior warfaring. The problem, I think, is that you cant bully people forever. They find ways of pushing back and winning.

As evidenced by the various conflicts around the globe, it is proving very, very hard (politically, militarily) to dominate and gain control of energy and materials -- at least sufficient to bailout the massive debt represented by the world's global reserve currency.

The fact that the US is, nonetheless, taking this risk perhaps demonstrates how desperate its debt and fiscal spending situation is. And, so far, I am not sure the strategy is working.

Yields are blowing out. Treasuries are being shunned, not treated like a safe haven. And the efforts to gain control of energy resource is very expensive, adding to the problem -- not solving it, arguably.

Bellatrix✨ · 1w
Yeah… When someone chooses to be in our life simply because they value our presence, without “demanding” the whole dynamics shifts. It’s purely for the shared experience.
Toby McMann profile picture
In a society that is addicted to living beyond its means, backstopped by government which cannot be trusted to control spending, the bond market is the only antidote.

Bond market collapse is the only thing sufficient to change behavior and, ultimately, protect people's future livelihood.

Interest rates are rising. The collapse is starting. US Treasuries are no longer a safe haven -- but rather ground zero. Trust is betrayed. Intervention only hastens the decline. The end game is upon us.

And, yes, the broken record is playing: Bitcoin fixes this.

Embrace scarcity. Stay safe, friends.




moneydesk · 1w
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