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Top Overnight News

Iran publicly denied that any direct negotiations were occurring, and US officials said the contacts were at a “very early stage and not substantive.” NYT

Fighting between Iran and the US-Israeli alliance continued with Iran launching overnight missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and US bases in the Middle East. Trump claimed talks are under way to end the conflict, but Iranian officials denied his claims of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, causing confusion over the participants in the talks and the parameters of a potential deal. BBG

Oil rebounded as Iran launched overnight attacks on several targets, including in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Israel said its Iran strikes are continuing at full intensity. Kuwait said some power lines were put out of service after Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken steps toward joining the war. BBG, WSJ

The Trump administration is quietly weighing Iran’s parliament speaker as a potential partner — and even a future leader — as the president signals a shift from military pressure toward a negotiated endgame. Mohammad ⁠Bagher Ghalibaf is seen by at least some in the White House as a workable partner. Politico

Oil companies and the world’s largest energy consumers face a significant challenge to rebuild global petroleum supply chains and inventories once the critical Strait of Hormuz bottleneck opens, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday. Wirth cautioned that Iran’s attacks on oil tankers and the broader damage of the Middle East war did greater damage to oil and gas markets than the Russia-Ukraine war. Politico

Chinese banks are experiencing system failures due to surging volumes in gold investment products as investors buy on dips, according to China Securities Journal. BBG

Japan’s core inflation rose 1.6% from a year earlier in February, below the BOJ’s target for the first time since 2022. BBG

The ECB must be “very agile and vigilant” to keep prices in check as the Iran war brings stagflation risks closer, said incoming ECB vice president Boris Vujcic. BBG

A fund run by Future Standard and KKR was cut to junk by Moody’s, a rare occurrence in the $1.8 trillion market. Apollo capped withdrawals from one of its largest non-traded funds for retail investors. BBG

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I don’t know what this exercise is, but I’m in.