Damus
OostLog profile picture
OostLog
@OostLog

Portfolio manager (EM debt, rates, FX). De- vs centralisation is the left/right of our age. Bitcoin, markets, life, family etc. Writing into the void

Relays (9)
  • wss://nostr.wine – read & write
  • wss://nos.lol – read & write
  • wss://relay.snort.social – read & write
  • wss://relay.damus.io – read & write
  • wss://premium.primal.net – read & write
  • wss://nostr.oxtr.dev – read & write
  • wss://nostr.mom – read & write
  • wss://eden.nostr.land – read & write
  • wss://offchain.pub – read & write

Recent Notes

Jacob | Five Eye Tea · 2d
As much as I'd love to believe that, all it takes is for the government to close all on-ramps, figure out your wallet address, then go after you for that. That's why a lot of people like Monero: it ta...
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Any government at any moment has the option to go full DPRK on its people. That comes with many costs and tradeoffs most govts will not be willing to pay.

In a DPRK style gun-to-the-head “give me your seed phrase or else” world no one and no protocol is truly safe from government overreach.

In most versions of government that fall short of that, bitcoin gets the job done.
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The “4m Bitcoin will get dumped because of quantum” story neatly separates investors/traders from the people who deeply understand bitcoin. I shed no tears for this being the latest hurdle that will throw a bunch of the former off the rodeo
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The Netherlands is implementing a tax on "unrealised capital gains".
They’ll sugar‑coat it, and after public outrage will no doubt implement a bunch of exemptions for the cattle, but this is the trajectory we are now on.

An exit‑tax is already in the works too, and I would be very surprised if an international taxation regime does not come into place within five years for all the crabs in the bucket who will now try to emigrate. It will be all‑encompassing.

Keep in mind as well that the Netherlands is often a trendsetter / testing ground for such policies as it effectively functions as a WEF colony. All of this has to be done because it is important that the permanent underclass taking shape due to AI includes the vast majority of the population. If you are not in their club, if you are a mere peasant, you have no right to try and escape it.

When the tanks rolled into certain countries in 1939‑1940, you could cry about it, or you could start thinking long and hard about how you could cope and position yourself. That's where we are today in Europe.

And in fact I am even somewhat hopeful, for two reasons:

1 - Europe has been ruined in many ways, particularly economically and through mass immigration, by a perfidious elite who serve someone but not the people of Europe. The response of the average European has been apathy. A near‑communist system may finally bring them to their senses. Over‑taxation has a way of waking people up like nothing else.

2 - If you've read the book “The Sovereign Individual”, you will know that a predicted end state of this game is one where governments become servers and citizens clients. We are currently not there yet, governments are clinging on to the old power dynamics and going full Soviet in the process. But more and more governments will start to do this in a more positive way; there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Now as for how to actually position yourself? I've always thought about government policy – on any topic, including taxes – as falling into two distinct groups: moral or immoral.

I personally prefer no taxation at all, but I understand a degree of taxation is accepted by most, and if I am free to move around then it is an acceptable choice to live under such a system. I consider modest taxation annoying, but not immoral. Here, however, the Dutch government is very clearly moving into immoral territory.

I cannot specify exactly what that means or how you should cope. That would be unwise. But what I will say is:

* Think very long and hard about whether you own enough Bitcoin, whether you own it all in self‑custody.

* Structure it in a way that makes sense in this new and dangerous world; if you were early to Bitcoin, you now have an opportunity to do so with MAXIMUM OPTIONALITY for you and your family.

* Ensure that what you own in stocks, real estate and other real‑world assets is an amount you'd be okay with paying excessive taxes on. They will come after it.

* If you have the capacity to move to a more free place, I would not argue against it. However, keep in mind they will come after everyone on a global scale. You'll save some time but won't escape. Saying this mostly for those who will have to stay back. Don't despair.
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To me the obvious market event that needs to happen here before price goes anywhere again, is for shitcoins to die. Now is the moment.

It’s the natural thing that needs to play out to truly cleanse things, as it all got utterly absurd in 2020 and beyond.

At several moments the last few months I went back to the Bitcoin chart wondering “is this dump over”, then went back to shitcoins still in the billions and realised “nah”. A few hundred billion $ in shitcoin value destruction still to go. LFG
1
🇮🇹Davide btc ⚡ · 1w
Shitcoins will burn, but Bitcoin's fundamentals remain unscathed, price will follow.
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The Street with their knees on paper Bitcoin’s neck Mon-Fri

Normies in the weekend buying Bitcoin at these very cheap prices

Physical Bitcoin sellers going “take it easy there’s only so much to go around”

Price resetting upwards

Basically the new reality of BTC
OostLog · 1w
Big if true lmao https://blossom.primal.net/eeec347a4be844d33e2d5cd53579199142398a746f1a29a0ddb1d65e42bc94e1.jpg
OostLog profile picture
What makes me laugh about these articles is that she advertised in the header that she doesn’t even get the basics.

Yes of course Bitcoin can go lower, or much lower. But currencies don’t go to zero (her mental framework is stock, not currency), and certainly not ones with fixed supply.

But that’s like two or three steps beyond her mental comprehension.
OostLog · 1w
What makes me laugh about these articles is that she advertised in the header that she doesn’t even get the basics. Yes of course Bitcoin can go lower, or much lower. But currencies don’t go to zero (her mental framework is stock, not currency), and certainly not ones with fixed supply. But t...
note1s0pkt...
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It’s not yet good enough to take over any of the critical operational responsibilities of my job.

In the foreseeable future it won’t be, as there needs to be a signature of a responsible person under it. Even if a bot does that work, I’ll be supervising.

But it can easily fit what would formerly be 2 full working days of intensive research and coding that can drive long term business into an hour of prompting.
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We never had a traditional Bitcoin bull run post 2021, other than what was the result of ETF flows and fabricated political correlation by the usual hypemen. I am not sure what is so hard to understand about this.

Simplify your mental model: if a central bank does all the wrong things, Bitcoin goes up against fiat currency.

If a central bank does all the right things, even if they are temporary because the system itself is on a dead end road, Bitcoin will not go up materially against fiat currency.

This is just how currencies work. They all trade in pairs. Bitcoin has no God given right to increase in value, but it always will when the thing it is trading against is self-destroying.

Most of the 2010s we had interest rates near zero, a continuously expanding Fed balance sheet, the monetary base in terms of GDP rapidly expanding. They had their reasons of course (fear of deflation, etc.), but this was central banks purposefully blowing up their own currencies.

Since 2021 we have had interest rates in developed markets at 3-4%, the Fed balance sheet shrinking, the monetary base in terms of GDP shrinking. Central banks got spooked by inflation, which is the one thing that causes governments to be overthrown faster than a deflation-led sovereign debt crisis. And so, for a while at least, they started doing all the right things.

It's impressive that Bitcoin still developed how it did price-wise the last few years. Congratulations to the hypemen, the four year cycle maxis, etc. But it was unnatural.

We are now once again entering an era where the Fed will be making all the wrong moves. One of fiscal dominance. The balance sheet has started expanding and M2 will follow. Interest rates will come down despite inflation. Bitcoin will now naturally follow.

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Not sure what political persuasion this falls under, but I have basically come to view almost all major problems of the modern world to be a result of fiat currency. Low birth rates, war, excessive immigration, it all ties back to this in my opinion.

It changes how people think about family, risk, war, about time horizons. If money is constantly debased, you can only speculate just to stand still. Housing is a financial asset before it's a home. Governments can fund conflicts endlessly. Demographics become distorted because the economic base feels unstable.

I’m in the top 1% incomes in a rich financial hub. And still it feels like I'm running on a treadmill that slowly accelerates. Save? Inflation. Invest? Asset bubbles. Hold cash? Guaranteed loss. Take risk? Volatility. I can only imagine how bad it is for people who have far less than I do.

For me Bitcoin is the only way out.