Damus

Recent Notes

Erin · 53w
I miss when Bitcoin was about changing the world. I understand the speculative attack is part of adoption/moving from fiat to a bitcoinized world. But most of these bitcoin treasury companies are doin...
VarMur profile picture
Yeah, I hear you. I really do.

But. Recapitalising the world with Bitcoin is value creation. I love to see individuals adopting Bitcoin, and they are the most numerous and quite a powerful group - but all adoption is good adoption, and I want to see the corporate world become bitcoiners as well. And eventually, governments of every size.

The peer to peer is scale invariant - individuals are peers, corporations are peers, and governments are peers, among each other. Peers of every scale acting in their self interest is one of the pillars of Bitcoin’s resilience.

The prefs of Strategy, which strip excess return and volatility in exchange for yield stability, are creating value, both for their investors, and for Bitcoin itself. There’s a lot of demand for outpacing or minimising fiat inflation without undue risk - bonds of every duration have hundreds of trillions in them because of this. Satisfying this demand in a new and ethically sound way, with bitcoin as the base collateral, is valuable. Worthy goal, imo. Far from icky.
Ben Justman🍷 · 54w
Genuine question: Why worry about spam on Bitcoin when natural incentives will eliminate it eventually?
VarMur profile picture
Spam is any information in the chain that isn’t monetary. Since bitcoin dematerialises money to information, there is no way to stop arbitrary information on chain.

Relying on “good” behaviour isn’t what bitcoin is about, it’s about relying on “self-interested” behaviour. If illegal information on chain could stop bitcoin, it never could work anyway.

I’m glad that this is the biggest thing we’re quibbling about. I’m also glad that Knots is gaining so much traction, it shows us that Core doesn’t have any power. Bullish.
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PiecoverBTC · 55w
They are not selling the bitcoins to pay dividends, but they are selling #MSTR stocks
VarMur profile picture
Yes, true. Selling #MSTR to pay dividends is only sustainable if MSTR deserves a sustained premium over the price of Strategy’s total #bitcoin holdings (NAV).

Does it? I believe it does - if they can grow bitcoin per share and keep accumulating bitcoin. By how much, and for how long?

The preferred stocks have Strategy’s bitcoin as backing. This is Strategy using/leveraging their #bitcoin treasury to issue credit worthy debt. They aren’t just hodling their bitcoin. The difference between the cost of servicing this debt, and the returns of bitcoin accumulated from issuing this debt is their profit.

This profit can scale - if there is enough demand for the preferred’s.

This profit can last - for as long as the yield demanded for bitcoin backed credit instruments is lower than the growth rate of bitcoin price.

The common stock should therefore price this in as a multiple, and we have long term justification for it to trade at a premium to NAV.

In addition, index inclusion leads to a mNAV insensitive bid. ATM in this kind of rising mNAV environment - increases the floor to which MSTR can fall due to mNAV insensitive sells by index funds - and also increases their capacity to collateralise more issuance of the preferreds.

I don’t see this as a ponzi. It’s a legitimate way to get access to compounding bitcoin. Not priced in fiat, but getting a bitcoin denominated yield on a bitcoin treasury. That’s MSTR. It cannot last forever, and it cannot scale forever, but it could work for several decades, and it could grow to trillions.
PiecoverBTC · 55w
They are not selling the bitcoins to pay dividends, but they are selling #MSTR stocks
nostrich · 59w
I know $strc can’t guarantee 9%, but it is trying to be %9 like a money market tries hard to give 4 right? Like if Bitcoin still cycles down 30%, Saylor is likely going to still pay out the $strc 9%...
VarMur profile picture
$STRC is not designed to guarantee the coupon rate, but to keep the face value constant. If they will succeed at doing this remains to be seen, so I would wait to see how it behaves during a drawdown before committing to it. Since your time horizon is 2–3 years, maybe you could wait a few months for the product to mature a bit. Volume and demand so far is promising, though.

If bitcoin experiences a 30% or more drawdown, I would expect the yield on STRC to go up. The market is currently not pricing the preferred STR’s solely on the basis of prevailing TradFi interest rates, but also as a function of BTC price and #MSTR sentiment and leverage. So if interest rates drop, the yield on #STRC may go down as well. The actual yield on STRC is likely to be way more volatile than money market funds.

The key point of STRC is to eliminate capital appreciation / depreciation due to interest rate risk. So minimising drawdown - this is the goal for STRC. With that, you forgo any capital gains as well.

I don’t agree with the comment about a bad ending waiting to happen or MSTR having expenses greater than income. If the CAGR of the bitcoin collateral is greater than the expense of servicing the preferred’s, that is a sound business model.
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Rizful.com (zap tester) · 55w
hey -- we want to send you a test zap, but couldn’t find a NIP-05 or ⚡ lightning address on your profile. u can set one up for free on rizful https://rizful.com ... then pls reply here and we will do a test zap.
Bitcoin Buddha · 66w
#asknostr im looking for the singular best podcast episode that presents the clearest case for why someone needs to own some bitcoin. i talk to normies & no-coiners all the time & my best words at the...
VarMur profile picture
I don’t have a straight answer to your question. I’ve noticed the same - people just don’t get it or don’t want to hear it. Even those who do, get attracted to different aspects of Bitcoin, as it has so many.

The visionaries are few, and see how things could be different and better - the best among them see how things MUST be.

Most are conservatives, and work to keep what works working. They will be interested only when they can buy things with bitcoin.

Eventually when you can buy things only with bitcoin, the conservatives will be the majority of bitcoin users.