I'm now completely convinced that this entire drawdown - which may have been started by API problems on Binance, but if it hadn't have been that it would have been something else - is all about liquidating bitcoin backed loans.

It's a terrible incentive sitting out there in the market. A HUGE pot of bitcoin that is suddenly up for grabs at LOWER prices. And this world is full of rich people who want our coins.

If you needed liquidity above $100k you had two options, sell or take a loan out. Of course there were lots of companies eager to sell you the dream of getting liquidity without selling your bitcoin, unfortunately that's all that is, a dream.

We've been sold a lie that bitcoin is the best possible collateral because it's liquid 24/7! Well sure that makes it amazing...FOR THE LENDER! For the borrower it just puts a target on your back.

You thought you were a hardcore hodler, but you just posted your coins for sale at $58k! And guess what? There are buyers who want that deal!

We're going to go down until every reasonably accessible bitcoin being held as collateral is freed up and sold to someone that ain't one of us! If you avoided taking out a loan, congrats! If somehow you have some dry powder now, amazing, you deserve these cheap sats.

If you're looking at liquidation even anywhere in the 50's, I'd consider cutting your losses and closing your loan with collateral. If you can get your margin call price into the 40's I would hope you would be safe, but who knows. There are no rules in a truly free market.

Some Metaplanet analysis of the plan they announced today.

Here’s the “conservative” version:
759M shares already issued, another 555M on the way, so ~73% dilution (per page 7 of the deck released today). Likely all issued in less than 100 trading days (per page 20 - assuming a modest increase in volume). At an average purchase price of $115k per BTC that'll give them an additional ~57k BTC at the current stock price of ~$11.70 for a total of around 66k BTC worth about $7.6B.

With a new total of 1.3B shares outstanding here's a chart showing the stock price at various mNAV's:

Here's something interesting.
I was trying to steel man my argument in favor of $STRK, and my belief that there will be near zero incentive to convert and I came across an interesting argument. $STRK doesn't have an options market. So if you could imagine a future where $MSTR is $10k per share, and $STRK is $1k + a small kicker for the 0.8% yield and liquidation preference, someone sitting on a large position of $STRK that's basically yielding nothing could convert to $MSTR and sell covered calls against the position for a much higher effective yield.

So that begs the question: can you launch an options market on top of a preferred stock. Answer according to Grok: yes, but it's so far been very rarely done.

So if they don't do it, I do think you'll have a conversion bleed over time of people willing to give up the liquidation preference (which won't be worth much if @Strategy is the largest company on earth anyway), in favor of the higher yield that selling covered calls can offer. And by that point I think @Strategy would love for people to convert, so maybe they're incentivized to not launch the options market. Something to think about!

A few thoughts about $STRK, obvious to some, but I know a lot of people don't follow this so closely and I think it's potentially a very valuable tool in the bitcoiner toolkit.

$STRK pays an $8 qualified dividend per share per year. $STRK can be converted 10:1 into $MSTR when $MSTR is over $1000 per share. At that point the convertibility is therefore worth $100. With $MSTR at $2000 the convertibility is worth $200, etc.

At the moment $STRK is priced at $107 and $MSTR at $378. IMO this means the conversion is priced at $37.8 and the remaining $99.2 is based on the $8 per share yield (effectively an 8% yield).

As $MSTR goes up well over $1000, $STRK will trade in lockstep with $MSTR. AKA as $MSTR goes from $2500 to $5000 $STRK will go from $250 to $500 + a small premium for the $8 per share coupon and the fact that $STRK is higher in the capital stack of @Strategy than $MSTR.

If $BTC does a 5x to $500k you could imagine that $MSTR might do a ~10x to $4000 and in that case $STRK would do a 4x to $400 (plus the aforementioned premium). As $STRK goes up it still maintains its $8/share qualified dividend, but that equates to an effectively lower yield of 2% in the $400 example. So the portion of $STRK that's priced based on it's yield will go down as $MSTR goes up.

So in however long it takes $BTC to go to $500k would you rather get a 5x with $BTC and 0 counterparty risk, a 4x with $STRK and an $8/share coupon (and counterparty risk), or a 10x with $MSTR and no coupon and counterparty risk. Also keep in mind that once $MSTR is over $1000, $STRK's performance should match $MSTR's (aka outperform bitcoin's), but the yield will be much lower by then. That's my outlook, do with it as you will, No recommendations here, not financial advice, just some thoughts.