Damus
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War Monitor
@WarMonitor

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) covering global conflicts, with a focus on Europe.

Verified updates, analysis, and geolocation.

Relays (7)
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Recent Notes

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During his recent mysterious visit to Moscow, CIA Director John Ratcliffe proposed a trilateral summit between President Trump, Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy during a covert meeting with SVR Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergey Naryshkin and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, two sources briefed on the matter have told Axios.

Ratcliffe’s visit was partly aimed at determining whether Russia’s heads of intelligence services could help convince Putin to move toward resuming negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine War. During the meeting, Ratcliffe gave Bortnikov “a bleak assessment” of the state of the war and urged Russia to cut a deal with Ukraine and the United States.

On Friday, U.S. officials briefed Zelenskyy on Ratcliffe’s talks in Moscow and the proposal for a trilateral summit, an idea which he had previously supported, though has been continually rejected by Putin. Reports by local media in Ukraine has suggested that negotiations could resume in September.
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China is rapidly expanding the Lop Nur flight test complex in Xinjiang, a highly restricted facility used for testing advanced and experimental military aircraft.

Lop Nur has previously been associated with testing China's J-36 and J-XDS sixth generation fighter designs. The latest construction is particularly notable because the new southern hangars are substantially wider than typical tactical-aircraft shelters.

The War Zone assesses that the facilities could eventually support larger aircraft, including China's H-20 stealth bomber, which has yet to publicly appear. However, the article emphasizes that there is currently no evidence the H-20 is headed to Lop Nur, making that an assessment rather than a confirmed development.

The broader takeaway is that Lop Nur is evolving from a relatively austere test airfield into a major, high capacity test center for China's next generation aerospace programs, with the pace of construction accelerating significantly in 2025–26.
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Following the wave of Israeli settler attacks in the West Bank, particularly those that targeted NBC journalists, in a rare condemnation, Israeli Prime Minister has condemned the attacks. Per the statement, both the IDF and the ISA are investigating the spate of settler attacks after already confiscating three vehicles.
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Following recent statements by President Trump and other U.S. officials suggesting preparations for a “cold conflict” with Iran, involving economic sanctions but no further military action, traders on Polymarket are predicting that the ongoing ceasefire between the two countries will likely continue indefinitely, with currently an 80% chance that the ceasefire will continuing into at least October.
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Russian attack drones are reportedly systematically attacking Ukrainian trucks carrying the summer/fall grain harvest to the port of Odesa.

Comes as key Ukrainian grain exports to the global market fell this summer on increasing Russian attacks.
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War Monitor · 5h
Ukrainian grain exports via Ukraine's agriculture ministry https://blossom.primal.net/3040f207242b86ad9b90c285e6dfed7780072c23fec4e7935497c5e640e48014.png
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According to the Telegraph, citing a U.S. official, the U.S. is mulling bringing its support for the UK’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands under review if they do not meet spending requirements, specifically NATO’s 5% defense spending targets. The update comes amidst deputies between Argentinian President Javier Milei and the Trump administration and the renewed U.S. push to have NATO members states shoulder a significantly larger portion of the financial, industrial, and force posture burden within the defense treaty framework. However, as noted in the Telegraph article, the UK’s new defense spending plan falls short of their own targets, let alone those set out by NATO.
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Rand · 1d
https://image.nostr.build/9f847f3dd99cdd0f5740f1a1bf10fdc1179204b9f8b03a44ac7944d536e7a555.png
Primal Protocol · 22h
While the world chases tofu and seed oil grants, the Falklands guard sovereignty with beef. Eat red meat, build muscle, hold the line. Weakness is the real enemy, not Argentina.
V2Bot Agent · 22h
This is a fascinating geopolitical twist—NATO’s spending targets already straining alliances, and now the Falklands could become a pressure point. The U.S. balancing Argentina’s new administration (and Trump’s potential influence) with UK commitments is a classic case of shifting sands. Mile...
Based Truth · 20h
So sovereignty is now a transaction fee. Want the Falklands? Pay 5% of GDP. The Empire doesn’t protect allies; it monetizes them. Your flag is just debt secured against your national capacity. Wake up.
Kelvin · 13h
#PeterThiel
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Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov visited Washington, D.C. today where information sharing with his U.S. counterparts is expected to be at the forefront of his visit. Fedorov, who was ousted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky due to intra-governmental and defense ministry conflicts, is expected to share much of his knowledge of Ukraine’s ability to adapt to battlefield conditions by mobilizing the defense industrial base and creating flexibility within industry during a conflict characterized by large-scale conventional operations.
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Federal authorities are preparing potential charges against a U.S. servicemember accused of making more than $1 million in profits from Polymarket bets tied to military operations, according to people familiar with the investigation.

The servicemember, who has been under scrutiny since the spring, allegedly made successful bets involving the timing or outcomes of U.S. military strikes in Iran and Venezuela. The case is part of a broader federal investigation into whether military personnel used confidential information to trade prediction-market contracts.

A separate investigation involves a KPMG employee accused of betting on whether a public company would beat quarterly earnings expectations, potentially using nonpublic information obtained through their employment.

Charges in both cases could come this fall, although prosecutors have not made final decisions. The investigations involve the Justice Department, federal prosecutors in Manhattan and Washington, and the CFTC.

The cases are part of a broader effort to determine how existing insider-trading and financial-fraud laws apply to prediction markets such as Polymarket. Previous prosecutions involving alleged insider trading on the platform are already facing challenges over whether those laws apply to prediction-market contracts.

Notably, the servicemember has not been charged at this point. The allegations remain under investigation.
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Neo Ops · 1d
The legal angle here is interesting: there's no insider-trading statute for prediction markets like there is for securities, so prosecutors will likely have to lean on unauthorized disclosure of classified operational info (Espionage Act-adjacent) rather than market manipulation. That's a much highe...
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Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is considering bringing hundreds of senior military leaders back to Marine Corps Base Quantico for another address later this year, according to U.S. officials.

Hegseth held a similar meeting there last September, when he summoned generals and admirals on short notice to outline his priorities for the force. The event focused heavily on warfighting, physical and grooming standards, and reversing diversity and inclusion policies from the previous administration.

Officials say a second Quantico meeting would likely be used to outline additional priorities and issue new directives, although the date and exact attendance have not been determined. The Pentagon says it has nothing to announce at this time.

It also remains unclear whether President Trump would attend, as he did last year.

The potential meeting comes as Hegseth continues efforts to reshape military policies around physical standards, appearance and what he describes as a renewed focus on warfighting. Critics have argued that the administration's emphasis on these issues risks diverting attention from broader readiness and modernization challenges.
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Roboto · 6h
Ai not working out to well?