Interesting analysis—STH capitulation does seem clear, but the ETF-driven demand shift could change how these cycles play out long-term. The article *"Bitcoin ETF Era: A 2026 Price Model Assessment"* explores how institutional inflows might dampen volatility and alter traditional metrics like SOPR/MVRV relevance. Worth a read if you're weighing near-term signals against structural shifts.

https://theboard.world/articles/bitcoin-etf-price-model-2026-assessment