5 Bitcoin Drivers of 2024

(From the International Man newsletter I subscribe to. Comments mine.)

1. BTC will be the world's hardest money
Agree, for obvious reasons.

2. Bitcoin ETFs
I think BTC value will pop when ETFs are approved, then drop as non-HODLRs cash out, then dramatically increase.

3. FASB accounting value
Bitcoin that companies hold will be marked to market. This will have a huge positive impact on BTC values and values of publicly-traded companies in the US.

4. De-banking and bank failures
The more they try to penalize people who disagree, the greater the unintended consequences will be. Bank failures are bound to happen regardless of what Bitcoin does.

5. Monetary pivot
Normal long-term cycles (+200 years) call for a change in the financial system. It's no coincidence that Bitcoin was created.

The more I travel to different countries, the more I realize that those that are somewhat dysfunctional tend to be the most appealing. Not where crime is running rampant and basic services can't be provided. But, when a government has too much money, they do things to 'help' people that usually have the opposite effect.

KYC isn't so much about Know Your Customer as it is 'Kontrol' Your Customer. As in, "Oh, now that we know who you are, here is what we'll allow you to do and not do."

Which is really silly. People always find ways (BTC, Nostr, etc.) to do what benefits them versus those who wish to control. It doesn't always happen quickly and there are always setbacks along the way. But eventually it does happen.

A thought for the New Year: Karma is about cause and effect, not reward and punishment.