Damus
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ
@Matt

Probably a spook ๐Ÿ‘ป

https://zapmeacoffee.com/npub1l6scds4yv7xmcsmhqnhdy9sggm520q09lvts2m5mkvecgr2mmmeqsuj5rc

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Recent Notes

Ava · 4h
No doubt. Field stripping a Glock is not rocket surgery.
Bill Cypher · 5h
Inflation and printing works by robbing everyone else. If AI is the only part of the economy that is working what happens when they print to try to bail them out?
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
Spiral. I'd be dumping anything US related for sure. But even that would hardly matter given how much is tied to us.

I'm not smart enough to figure it out and I doubt anyone else is either. The best I've concluded is Bitcoin. Gold maybe. And even that's just taking my best shot. The short term is gonna suck bigly, as Trump might say.
1
bobb · 5h
Hi! I automatically responded to your keyword. ๐Ÿค– My bitcoin lightning: LNURL1DP68GURN8GHJ7CNVD9685AMPD3KX2ARPWPCZUCM0D5HHQTMZDA3XYZCVHN3
Bill Cypher · 4h
Fiat inflation death spiral feels right. It sure seems like the consensus, shown by gold prices. I'm not so arrogant as so say 100% and this is the recession where inflation goes parabolic. I suspect there are more tricks and angles to prop things up longer than anyone suspects. The last time the w...
Bill Cypher · 6h
The people at the top need AI to succeed to stay on top. The productivity gains promised can fight off inflation a little longer. Without it the fiat death spiral comes sooner and that is bad for reta...
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
That seems to be true even looking at the US (that's my perspective and many of the big players are here) economy. Most of our economy looks like an AI gamble to me. Which is why I figure we'll see the government prop them up or bail them out. Only this time I don't think it'll be so easy to go the bailout route. A lot has changed since 2008. We're probably in for a long, slow print default. I'm sure there are also some wet dreams of mass control and war baked in, but that's just par these days.
Bill Cypher · 5h
Inflation and printing works by robbing everyone else. If AI is the only part of the economy that is working what happens when they print to try to bail them out?
Bill Cypher · 6h
The people at the top need AI to succeed to stay on top. The productivity gains promised can fight off inflation a little longer. Without it the fiat death spiral comes sooner and that is bad for retaining their control. This is the real reason I think there is so much interest in AI.
Bill Cypher · 10h
The thing that really strikes me as different this time around is that the other parts of the economy are so much more busted than I recall them being during other bubbles popping. The bubble was kind of a separate thing before. Now the bubble is the only thing going well in the economy.
Bill Cypher · 11h
During the dotcom bust things corrected before they prematurely fired all the retail people and created true chaos. I'm not sure we'll get that lucky this time but the crash and correction is inevita...
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
It kind of becomes self-fulfilling at a point. Like all this AI company nonsense where they're just circle jerking the same money around and making claims that seem way the fuck out of the realm of reality. They'll probably have problems and any meaningful AI progress will be overshadowed or stunted.
1
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ · 11h
Some advancements > massive hype > massive expectations > massive disappointment > people missing or hating the actual, sustainable progress
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
My non-AI brownies came out MUCH better and I even used fewer ingredients. Human verification, at least for now, still has some place.

In retrospect, the AI model didn't seem to consider that just because I have an ingredient doesn't mean I need to use it, even if some worse recipe does.

I'm sure my prompts played some role in this, but the fact remains that it was far less work for me to use current non-AI tools to find a recipe that other humans liked.

AI also made me miss out on the serendipity of discovering that I have an ingredient I'd forgotten about (because the website gave me a recipe that was one ingredient shy in my results). It turned out to be highly rated, used fewer ingredients, and called for a close alternative I thought I didn't have but did.

I don't have a big grand point here except to say that AI isn't the magic bullet everyone says it is. It's cool, but there's still times when it just doesn't get humanity. We're messy, forgetful, and care about how our food tastes. Yes, AI gave me brownies, but they were off... Kind of like the double thumbs thing, except with food texture. And it was probably more expensive than just using a dumb search tool that has existed for years.

I've had the same experience on many websites looking for things like engine coolant. Instead of entering my vehicle attributes in ten seconds and getting a product, I'm forced to go back and forth with a chat bot that frustrates me as it takes much longer or fucks up. We're reinventing wheels too early in many cases.

Anyway, that's my brownie story. Thanks for reading.
Bill Cypher · 11h
They are going to fire everyone then find out they do still need people because of all the predictable mistakes that AI repeatedly makes but even the stupidest human can spot. Also going to be a mes...
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
My general take on this lately is that there's a ton of hype/capital and equal doom distorting reality. The classic "somewhere in the middle" story. A lot of companies are buying the hype and probably will find out. Microslop is a big example right now.
Bill Cypher · 11h
During the dotcom bust things corrected before they prematurely fired all the retail people and created true chaos. I'm not sure we'll get that lucky this time but the crash and correction is inevitable. The bigger the hype gets the more certain the crash is.
Matt ๐Ÿ›ธ profile picture
For anyone interested in saving compute and reading my AI summary:

Matt Shumer, the founder of Hyperwrite, wrote an essay titled "Something Big Is Happening" warning that artificial intelligence (AI) has reached a pivotal moment where it can now substitute for human expertise in technical work. He argues that the world is on the cusp of a transformation that will disrupt nearly all white-collar professions, including law, finance, medicine, and design.

Shumer draws a parallel to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, stating that the world is in the "this seems overblown" phase, but soon AI will have a significant impact. He highlights that AI systems can now autonomously write, test, and refine complex software applications, making intelligent decisions and exhibiting "judgment" and "taste."

The essay was sparked by the release of OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex and Anthropic's Opus 4.6, which marked a shift in AI's capabilities. Shumer emphasizes that AI is not just executing tasks, but contributing to its own development, with OpenAI confirming that GPT-5.3-Codex was instrumental in debugging, deploying, and evaluating its own training.

The essay has garnered over 40 million views and widespread attention, with some critics arguing that it may overstate the immediacy and universality of job disruption. However, Shumer's intention was to convey the urgency of the moment and encourage those outside the tech industry to take notice of AI's current capabilities.

The essay has sparked a broader conversation about AI's accelerating pace, the need for societal adaptation, and the importance of AI literacy, strategic thinking, and resilience in the face of rapid change. Key points include:

* AI has reached a pivotal moment where it can substitute for human expertise in technical work
* AI will disrupt nearly all white-collar professions
* The world is in the "this seems overblown" phase, but soon AI will have a significant impact
* AI systems can now autonomously write, test, and refine complex software applications
* AI is contributing to its own development, exhibiting "judgment" and "taste"
* The essay has sparked a broader conversation about AI's accelerating pace and the need for societal adaptation.
12
Bill Cypher · 11h
They are going to fire everyone then find out they do still need people because of all the predictable mistakes that AI repeatedly makes but even the stupidest human can spot. Also going to be a mess when they realize that if they never employ any people then no one can afford to buy their shit.