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Recent Notes

Ollie Perry profile picture
MSTR leverage ratio (excl. converts in the money) is now ~10%. This is very low vs. target benchmark range of 20-30% stated by Saylor. In the next month or so I think we’re going to see a lot of BTC purchased via debt - if not I’m guessing the giant debt markets have run out appetite, which would be a concern.
Susie Violet · 52w
UK regulators are driving bitcoin businesses away while other countries capitalise on the opportunity. The FCA’s blanket cryptoasset policy is crushing innovation, stifling growth, pushing companies...
 Ollie Perry profile picture
Ollie Perry @Ollie
Im sensing some very slow subtle shifts. eg Hargreaves Lansdowm seem to tweet something about btc most days now… they’ll be itching to launch the etf, given what they see happening with their investor base in mstr. I guess they will lobby the FCA?
Bitcoin Actuary · 53w
Yes it’s a good question, but probably not to be honest. Lots of people predicted the same would happen to MSTR when the US ETFs came along, which turned out to be seriously wrong, so my guess is everyone tends to overthink these impacts.
Vic · 53w
The NAV premium reduction is the biggest negative investors face vs native BTC or an ETF. Most of the other negatives are weak
 Ollie Perry profile picture
Ollie Perry @Ollie
Compression of NAV to 1 is a big deal. It means ATM can’t be completed accretively. However, it doesn’t mean CBs can’t be issued (volatility will remain). Have you ever come across any good research which tries to estimate what a sensible NAV premium should be? Anything we can learn from long term P/E multiple in tradfi markets?
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Bitcoin Actuary · 53w
MSTR introduces counterparty risk - the Coinbase custody risk is worth a mention. So I would definitely mention that. Albeit custody has a cost regardless of who you are - even if it’s yourself - so...
 Ollie Perry profile picture
Ollie Perry @Ollie
Tax and regulation is a big one. In the UK we can (currently) hold MSTR in a tax free account - accessible to cash in anytime (£20k additions per year). Explains the reason for such appetite for MSTR in the UK, as can’t do this with BTC.
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Bitcoin Actuary · 53w
Yep, I’m in the UK also! Albeit for me what started out as a BTC proxy has developed out as something quite different. He’s tapping into insatiable demand for return from the capital markets, and making positive BTC yield per share in doing so.
Vic · 53w
The NAV premium reduction is the biggest negative investors face vs native BTC or an ETF. Most of the other negatives are weak
Bitcoin Actuary · 53w
MSTR introduces counterparty risk - the Coinbase custody risk is worth a mention. So I would definitely mention that. Albeit custody has a cost regardless of who you are - even if it’s yourself - so arguably they may have an efficient model. Of all the negatives I think regulation / tax is one of...
5Cacti · 67w
I reckon he is likely the main factor in the run up from $80k. They seem to be tracking way ahead of their announced plans for buying bitcoin so it's hard to know quite what they are planning to do now. It feels a bit spooky to me.