Vipassana Charlie on nostr

Recent Notes

Some guesses for 2026: 1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%... 2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation... 3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield cur...

Vipassana Charlie @Charlie 1765394494

Yield curve control in 2026? I’ve been following Darius Dale’s research which doesn’t have durable yield curve control coming until 2029. I could live with 2026 😎

less · 16w

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are: 1. Chinese liquidity 2. American manufacturing I expect ...

Vipassana Charlie @Charlie 1762199434

Are you surprised by the ISM miss? What month do you think it reaccelerates?

less · 48w

The delayed effects of massive dollar strength into mid-January 2025 are coming to an end. Economic surprises should start moving from bad to less bad. This is bullish. #Bitcoin--the world's freest...

Vipassana Charlie @Charlie 1742392473

What about the global debt refinancing air pocket? It’s something Darius Dale talks a lot about. Do you think interest rates have gotten low enough to not stifle forward growth after all the refinancing?

less · 48w

This is something that I was also greatly concerned about in early March. But I am increasingly convinced that the markets--especially Bitcoin and Nasdaq stocks--have already priced in these risks and are ready to price in optimism going forward.