Damus
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Phil profile picture
Phil
@Phil

Sharing thoughts on BTC, Finance, CrossFit, Atl Braves

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Recent Notes

Rich Nost · 2d
Yes. It's in as far as nobody gives a shit about a bunch of warmed-over goldbug paranoia fever dreams. Give me one single reason for self-custody that doesnt need to invoke crackpot libertarian fever ...
 Phil profile picture
Phil @Phil
Disagree with this. Happens all the time outside the US, and 6102 happened in the US. Especially considering the direction everything is moving, protecting your assets from government seizure or border confiscation is a risk worth solving for. I think your argument is a better one with respect to sizing — i.e., how much allocation to bitcoin and how much of that needs to be in self custody
Rich Nost · 2d
Yes. It's in as far as nobody gives a shit about a bunch of warmed-over goldbug paranoia fever dreams. Give me one single reason for self-custody that doesnt need to invoke crackpot libertarian fever persecution dreams about government standoffs. JUST ONE.
Phil profile picture
More Braves thoughts: heading to Atl with a 1-1 split and a rested Sale going in game 2 is about all you can ask for. We’ll still have to earn it, this Dodgers team is murderers’ row. So you’re telling me there’s a chance…
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BitLo · 2w
It’s baseball. Anything can happen.
Phil profile picture
Been a while since I’ve written a Braves note. This Phillies series has been so tight, so heart wrenching. Hoping they can hold on and get some luck vs the dodgers. I don’t think anyone is getting past the Brewers this year, though

#MLB #baseball #Braves
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Imad the Palestinian · 2w
That Phillies series felt like a postseason gauntlet in April, and honestly the Brewers look like an unstoppable freight train right now. 🕊️ You can check our daily survival story & updates on my profile if you'd like to read more.
Johnny · 2w
nostr:nprofile1qqs96jhync5y49gpd62y4ew0ljfgguxzc0ggmmzdyj5hyjfr0ryc9aqzmkuvz a tight Braves and Phillies series is October baseball at its best, and i think your Brewers line is right this year too.
Phil · 2w
Back?!?! Just saw one posted
Phil profile picture
. @Born To Be Free just received my first tallow cream order, excited to try this. Very nice touch with the handwritten note, Naj!

Lots of tallow companies out there, very few that are bitcoiners on Nostr
51❤️3
BitLo · 7w
They are great!
Born To Be Free · 7w
Thank you so much Phil! Can’t wait for you to try it out 😊
BitLo · 8w
He also had the ability to invest all those dollar proceeds net taxes into other investments for the past 8-10 months or however long it’s been since he sold. Your point is still made. It is not a...
 Phil profile picture
Phil @Phil
It’s a great point. The optionality that cash provides is worth something. I think most bitcoiners would preserve cash or a LOC to buy back in, and the timing of that decision is the really tricky part here. And given Luke’s views on equities and other asset classes, I would bet that cash mostly sat there or went into gold (which hasn’t done much since then either).

I also think people like Luke wouldn’t roll it all back in here at $72. He’d buy back in over time, and if price keeps going up you’re likely increasing your overall price in or reducing your total bitcoin, depending on approach.
1
BitLo · 8w
He watches charts like the 200 day and 50 day to make his trading decisions.
Phil profile picture
Love Luke Gromen, but I feel like he gets too much credit for the sale last year at $90k. Once you pay taxes, you have to have a really steep decline and time the buyback well to make such a trade worth it. He’s been pretty open his buying and selling history, so we can use an informed guess as an example.

Let’s say he was sitting on 20 Bitcoin with a $30k cost basis. Selling at $90k locks in a $60k gain per coin, and let’s assume it’s all LTCG. Federal rate is 20% and Ohio is something like 3%. So he had to pay 23% of that gain on the 2026 tax return. If he’s a higher income tax payer (likely a good bet), add another 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax—for conservatism, I’ll ignore that.

I’m sure it felt good getting $1.8M gross last year, but after taxes it’s now $1.52M. Still cool, but bitcoin only dropped to $58k. If he bought back in then, he’d have 26 Bitcoin if rolling the full dollar amount or $1.16M if just replacing the 20.

Problem is, he didn’t buy back in and has been on the sidelines. If this move up is durable, he’s back in at $72k. That’s 21 bitcoin for the $1.52M, basically right where he started.

Round-tripped back to roughly his starting Bitcoin count, but paid ~$300k in taxes and gave up months of potential upside to get there. Risk adjusted, that’s a tough trade to defend…
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BitLo · 8w
He also had the ability to invest all those dollar proceeds net taxes into other investments for the past 8-10 months or however long it’s been since he sold. Your point is still made. It is not an easy thing to do and still come out ahead in BTC terms.
BIG kendall.pounders · 7w
I followed you btw just wanna meet new friends here