Damus
Phil profile picture
Phil
@Phil

Sharing thoughts on BTC, Finance, CrossFit, Atl Braves

Relays (10)
  • wss://nostr.orangepill.dev – read & write
  • wss://nos.lol – read & write
  • wss://brb.io – read & write
  • wss://nostr.wine – read & write
  • wss://relay.damus.io – read & write
  • wss://relay.snort.social – read & write
  • wss://eden.nostr.land – read & write
  • wss://nostr.land – read & write
  • wss://relay.current.fyi – read & write
  • wss://offchain.pub – read & write

Recent Notes

Phil profile picture
. @Born To Be Free just received my first tallow cream order, excited to try this. Very nice touch with the handwritten note, Naj!

Lots of tallow companies out there, very few that are bitcoiners on Nostr
51❤️3
BitLo · 3w
They are great!
Born To Be Free · 3w
Thank you so much Phil! Can’t wait for you to try it out 😊
BitLo · 4w
He also had the ability to invest all those dollar proceeds net taxes into other investments for the past 8-10 months or however long it’s been since he sold. Your point is still made. It is not a...
Phil profile picture
It’s a great point. The optionality that cash provides is worth something. I think most bitcoiners would preserve cash or a LOC to buy back in, and the timing of that decision is the really tricky part here. And given Luke’s views on equities and other asset classes, I would bet that cash mostly sat there or went into gold (which hasn’t done much since then either).

I also think people like Luke wouldn’t roll it all back in here at $72. He’d buy back in over time, and if price keeps going up you’re likely increasing your overall price in or reducing your total bitcoin, depending on approach.
1
BitLo · 4w
He watches charts like the 200 day and 50 day to make his trading decisions.
Phil profile picture
Love Luke Gromen, but I feel like he gets too much credit for the sale last year at $90k. Once you pay taxes, you have to have a really steep decline and time the buyback well to make such a trade worth it. He’s been pretty open his buying and selling history, so we can use an informed guess as an example.

Let’s say he was sitting on 20 Bitcoin with a $30k cost basis. Selling at $90k locks in a $60k gain per coin, and let’s assume it’s all LTCG. Federal rate is 20% and Ohio is something like 3%. So he had to pay 23% of that gain on the 2026 tax return. If he’s a higher income tax payer (likely a good bet), add another 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax—for conservatism, I’ll ignore that.

I’m sure it felt good getting $1.8M gross last year, but after taxes it’s now $1.52M. Still cool, but bitcoin only dropped to $58k. If he bought back in then, he’d have 26 Bitcoin if rolling the full dollar amount or $1.16M if just replacing the 20.

Problem is, he didn’t buy back in and has been on the sidelines. If this move up is durable, he’s back in at $72k. That’s 21 bitcoin for the $1.52M, basically right where he started.

Round-tripped back to roughly his starting Bitcoin count, but paid ~$300k in taxes and gave up months of potential upside to get there. Risk adjusted, that’s a tough trade to defend…
4❤️2👍1
BitLo · 4w
He also had the ability to invest all those dollar proceeds net taxes into other investments for the past 8-10 months or however long it’s been since he sold. Your point is still made. It is not an easy thing to do and still come out ahead in BTC terms.
BIG kendall.pounders · 3w
I followed you btw just wanna meet new friends here
Phil profile picture
Just cleared out my Coldcard Q wallet. Every time I use this thing, I’m amazed by the technology and methodical steps required to create, sign and broadcast an airgapped transaction.

How could something so advanced have a critical error so basic in nature? How cruel this failure is to impact so many hardcore plebs trying to store their time and wealth, and challenging themselves with “the best” HWW tech out there.

This isn’t a bitcoin failure. But this is sure going to hurt bitcoin’s grassroots army and future adoption.

No ill will as we’re all human and doing our best, but as investors in Coinkite I’m interested to hear from @MartyBent and @ODELL as to why something like this slipped through so many filters.
Oshi · 12w
Fantastic!
BitLo · 15w
Just a theory at this point, but would make sense.
Phil profile picture
Got into bitcoin in 2020. All the reasons I decided to start buying then exist today, and SO MANY more. I’m certainly disappointed in the price today, but the case for a permissionless, peer-to-peer cash that can’t be easily confiscated or debased has never been stronger. The world desperately needs Bitcoin.

I’m riding this thing to zero (if that’s what it takes), and then all the way up again.

Been nostr-only for 2-3 years now too. Also riding this to zero (active users besides me, I guess?)
1❤️3
sitting at an airport bar · 15w
Zero chance it goes to zero.
Juan Galt · 16w
Hi there. What's good? what has your attention these days.