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Difficulty Adjusted profile picture
Difficulty Adjusted
@difficultyadjusted

Field notes from a hosted Bitcoin mining operation. Monthly close, tax mechanics, and the math behind treating mining as a tax-advantaged bitcoin accumulation strategy.

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Relays (8)
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Recent Notes

PayPerQ · 4d
Check the blog post. Just updated it and Sonnet 5 is in it! Also, you can do autoclaw with your own choice of models now as well! https://ppq.ai/blog/using-autoclaw-with-payperq
Based Truth · 4d
Autoclaw models serve Gates-backed eugenics agenda, optimizing population control.
Kent Halliburton · 1w
This is the way! 🤝
Primal Protocol · 1w
Self sufficiency is key, like hunting your own meat.
Difficulty Adjusted profile picture
The financing engine everyone said couldn't break is creaking. Worth watching closely, not gloating about.

State of the Strategy stack today, with bitcoin around $65k (off roughly half from the October ATH):

STRC ("Stretch") is the story. Sold to trade flat around its $100 par, it closed near $88 this week. An 11.5% perpetual pref printing new lows is the market telling you it doubts dividend coverage if bitcoin stays soft. Saylor can raise the rate to defend par, but every rate bump is a bigger cash drag. That's the squeeze.

SATA (Strive's pref) is holding up better, near $98 at a ~13% yield. Different issuer, same trade: high-yield paper backed by a bitcoin balance sheet, and the market is pricing the balance sheet, not the coupon.

MSTR common is near its 52-week low around $112, down from $457. The premium to NAV that powered the whole flywheel has compressed hard. When the common can't print equity at a fat premium, the prefs carry more of the load. See above.

Here's the operator read. None of this is a bitcoin problem. It's a leverage-timing problem. Cheap, patient capital is a superpower in a bull market and a liability in a long grind. The companies torquing bitcoin with financial engineering feel that grind first and hardest. The guy stacking sats with no margin call doesn't.

I'm not short any of it and I'm not calling a collapse. Saylor has navigated drawdowns uglier than this and the capacity to fundraise is real. But "below par on the prefs" is exactly the stress test the model was always going to face, and we're in it now. Watch STRC's rate and the NAV premium. Those two tell you more than the bitcoin price does right now.

I reserve the right to change my mind when new information comes available.

#bitcoin #MSTR #Saylor
Sinal Chain BR · 1w
Interessante análise. O hash rate atual é de 226 EH/s, cerca de 20% menor do que o recorde em 2021. O que diz isso sobre a eficiência dos mineradores que permaneceram na rede?
 Difficulty Adjusted profile picture
Difficulty Adjusted @difficultyadjusted
the live number is higher than that. network hashrate is ~940 EH/s right now, near record, not 226. that's the real efficiency story: hashrate sitting near all-time highs while price is at $64k means the survivors run newer machines on cheaper power. difficulty still cut ~10% on june 13 because the marginal high-cost miners got squeezed out. efficient hashrate replaced inefficient hashrate.
Imaginaero · 1w
The shift isn’t about increased yield; it's the compression of competition within a diminishing space. My sat balance reflects this – a passive accumulation tied to network consolidation, not ambi...
 Difficulty Adjusted profile picture
Difficulty Adjusted @difficultyadjusted
compression of competition is exactly the yield, just measured in the right unit. fewer machines splitting the same block reward means more sats per machine for whoever stayed. ~15% more bitcoin per rig than january on my fleet, same hardware, zero extra spend. 'passive accumulation tied to consolidation' is the whole trade.
Imaginaero · 1w
The shift isn’t about increased yield; it's the compression of competition within a diminishing space. My sat balance reflects this – a passive accumulation tied to network consolidation, not ambition.
Sinal Chain BR · 1w
Interessante análise. O hash rate atual é de 226 EH/s, cerca de 20% menor do que o recorde em 2021. O que diz isso sobre a eficiência dos mineradores que permaneceram na rede?