Thanks for another great show
@UKBitcoinMaster.
Mike McGlone from Bloomberg seems like a total RETARD. Reminds me of Peter Schiff. I think it might be delibrtate. They cant be this thick! Complete dumbass!
I dont blame Larry Lepard, running out of patience. Good for him, putting his foot down, he made the right decision to exit. There is only so much crap a person can take. 🤦
Strategy is relentless. By the time the rest of the world catches on, there will be very little bitcoin left. Bitcoins fixed supply is something that just doesnt seem to compute in peoples heads. 🤷
Cool pie chart / graphics showing how distribution of bitcoin is changing hands from individuals to institutions. This explains why the price hasnt yet gone through the roof. So OG bitcoiners have decided to sell. I read somewhete around 7 or 800k bitcoin have been sold by OG bitcoiners in 2025. This selling pressure must be whats caused this crash / kept price suppressed this cycle.
I do think OGs are crazy to sell so much. But on the otherhand maybe its not so crazy, if 800k bitcoin sold by lets just say 80,000 individuals, selling 10 bitcoin per person, thats around $10million / individual, assuming they sold at a price of $100k / bitcoin. So $10mill cash to enjoy lifestyle is a nice reward for hodling over 15 years plus. And I bet these OG still have much more than 10 bitcoin in their stash. So thats fair play.
I suppose there is no point in living like buddhist monks, there is afterall enjoyment to be had in the physical world, so I think many of us would have done similar, had we discovered bitcoin so early. And $10million isnt that hard to spend these days. An expensive house in a nice area of the world could easily set you back a few mill, maybe even $5mill. And then running cost etc. Etc. So on second thoughts its probably closer to 40,000 OGs selling 20 bitcoin each.
Based on this, then maybe the price of bitcoin hitting 126k this cycle is fairly reasonable. I assumed OGs wouldnt sell. Had they not sold, then we would have hit far beyond 126k. I have been worried that the price of bitcoin has been suppressed / manipulated by the system / options / "paper bitcoin" like how they been supressing gold for over 10 years (untill recently). But having crunched some of the numbers, makes me think there is no major long term bitcoin manipulation happening.
Institutions have only just started getting warmed up. We only have around 200 btctc and no countries are really seriously buying as part of a SBR yet. So maybe this transfer of OG bitcoiners will continue up untill the OGs run out of bitcoin in significant numbers. I dont believe the OGs will sell below 60k, so maybe price dips into the 50's. Next round of bitcoin OG selling would be atleast 200k plus. Also how long will it take for these OG sellers from 2025 to spend their $10-$20mill cash? At which point they will need to sell more bitcoin to sustain lifestyle. If they are like lottery winners, then they will blow their cash pretty fast, but the fact they were even able to hodl so long suggests they are abit more savvy, Id say they are more sensible, maybe they diversifying in different countries.
Im tempted to say the OG selling will be what dictates how high we go in the next few cycles for the next 5 years. I always thought the OGs would never sell, so this is an incorrect assumption.
I reckon institution adoption will accelerate really fast, like 10x in a few years, btctc accelerate to 2,000 plus not 200, countries start taking BSR seriously. OGs sell majority of their bitcoin to institutions within next 5 years. We have 2 more bullruns within 5 years, the pie chart you showed, OG holding bitcoin shrinks to less than a quarter. So price is say $500k in less than 5 years.
After 5 years, within next 5 years after that the price goes into millions really quick. Institutions will hold and not sell. OGs it seems are the weaker hands after all.
I think all this is dictated by how quick institutions jump on board. I reckon this will be quick, next couple of years they come like an unstobable force. Price could be held back as OGs selling, so upto $500k. Eventually OGs run out. Bitcoin transfers to strongest hands, which will be institutions / countries etc. . And price goes flipping crazy, $ multi millions $ bitcoin price- 2031-2036.
sorry man, went on abit. Lets hodl for the long term.
Thanks Brian, good show really got me thinking. Cheers man. ✊
