Taking a nice little hiatus during lent this year from all markets, news, social media and etc. wish me luck! Fortunately I have my faith, friends and family to guide me through finding new and more productive ways to spur dopamine in the brain :)
On to the report - price has fallen out the window in short time yet hashrate bounced back from the weather related event and we’re now sitting at what I’d like to consider DEEP value in my hashrate/price metric. 64 takes us back to October 2023 again. Caveat, although I do feel it’s take a loan out of the 401k value here, it usually takes time to grind out of this. In true time preference form, don’t expect a quick return, however the asymmetry is skewed quite favorably to be buying bitcoin here I think.
Also, address counts over .01 have a nice little chart forming. Very curious to see how that looks come Easter. It’s been since January 2024 since we set a record in that number but the smoothed trendline looks like we might take that high out and soon.
TLDR: stay humble and stack sats. Under the hood node counts, address counts and hashrate are churning and bullish. Enjoy the ride!
Wow, it’s been a minute! Lots to unpack here. The 17-month gap sheds light on where things stand today.
What’s awesome? Full node and LN node growth! It’s great to see more people participating in the network.
What doesn’t look great? Address counts. This doesn’t surprise me—I’m of the opinion we haven’t had a true bull market in years. You could argue for 2021, but a case could be made for going back to 2017 if you ignore price. Looking at addresses over 1M sats, there’s been no blow-up/blow-off action since then—just steady growth that’s turned stagnant or slightly declining over the last year and a half. That said, factors like Lightning adoption, SegWit, and price itself affect address counts. The bullish sign is that this smooth line is starting to trend up slightly (0.01 BTC address count) 👀
What’s wild? Hashrate—up 55%, despite a 20% drop in the last two weeks (weather-related? Miner capitulation?)—while price is only up 10%!!! This ratio of 85 has been a great buying opportunity in the past (e.g., September 2024 and Jan/Feb 2024). After all, it kinda feels like we could send this thing to zero anyway, doesn’t it?
I am not sure, probably not since I don’t know either. Most of my bigger activity has always been with strike. The convenience of being able to have a checking account associated with it was amazing - I used bill pay a lot. I just really like what block is doing with progressing bitcoin payments for small businesses so try and support them too. Sometimes I use both at the same time
Happy New Year! Here’s to the best year yet. No flashy or overly aggressive goals over here, something simple that I’m going for - making the bed every morning. Wonder how long it will take for my wife to say something 😂