Algos treating bitcoin like SaaS.
https://blossom.primal.net/942b76adae82e37449308ee1eb738083382e03ee62f140f34009003278f7d7aa.png
Relatively few new retail investors came in this cycle. Meanwhile, ...
Bitcoin isn't a saas but it is software. It is technology. And last cycle makes sense, I think, in technology adoption terms.
It's about use cases.
Adoption moves in waves as available new users of a given use case-user profile fit structurally come into alignment. It starts small, validates, becomes self reinforcing until it begins to saturate and then tapers off as you begin to run out of marginal new users for that fit.
Our "cycles" are kind of an illusion, in the sense that what happens in a cycle is triggered by the halving, but not caused by it. What ever is structurally on the table is just put into motion by the supply shock. A cold updraft only makes snow if there is moisture to precipitate.
Adoption curves are not lined up on the four year cycle. The cycles are just kind of an overlay.
This cycle was weak because the use case of assimilating Bitcoin into the financial system is played out. Shitcoining (using Bitcoin as a foil for an affinity scam or narrative arbitrage), ETFs, "treasury companies", stablecoins, defi, "institutional adoption" are all part of a wave that has largely run its course for now. The demand for assimilating Bitcoin into fiance has been saturating and is tapering.
Quantum anxiety is a hangover from this phase. Despite the fact that CRQC is not physically or logically possible and will never exist, we have had to contend with the reality of the narrative in institution domains. Likewise we have a cultural hangover in the Bitcoin community of financial system style plausibly deniable corruption.
The next wave is geopolitical. Mining and stacking competition between great powers. Low trust international trade in a multipolar order. Remittances. Capital flight. Circular economies escaping extraction and debasement under a new cybernetic population control-based monetary regime (MMT, UBI, stablecoins, DigitalID) that is replacing the petrodollar.
This drawdown and the great burning of paper Bitcoin and clearing of leverage that we are seeing is very healthy. Internally, we are also purging some of the capture and corruption that came with Bitcoin's adolescent financial system phase. This is what the Knots/Core conflict is about in a deeper level.
The good news is that it failed. Bitcoin was not assimilated. Capture has failed and is clearing out. We are consolidating in a very deep sense and setting the table for a much more important phase of adoption and much more real and meaningful monetary technology use cases.
The correlated good news is that the institutional phase fading means we can stop sucking up to banks, regulators and politicians. We'll be going over their heads now.
It's about use cases.
Adoption moves in waves as available new users of a given use case-user profile fit structurally come into alignment. It starts small, validates, becomes self reinforcing until it begins to saturate and then tapers off as you begin to run out of marginal new users for that fit.
Our "cycles" are kind of an illusion, in the sense that what happens in a cycle is triggered by the halving, but not caused by it. What ever is structurally on the table is just put into motion by the supply shock. A cold updraft only makes snow if there is moisture to precipitate.
Adoption curves are not lined up on the four year cycle. The cycles are just kind of an overlay.
This cycle was weak because the use case of assimilating Bitcoin into the financial system is played out. Shitcoining (using Bitcoin as a foil for an affinity scam or narrative arbitrage), ETFs, "treasury companies", stablecoins, defi, "institutional adoption" are all part of a wave that has largely run its course for now. The demand for assimilating Bitcoin into fiance has been saturating and is tapering.
Quantum anxiety is a hangover from this phase. Despite the fact that CRQC is not physically or logically possible and will never exist, we have had to contend with the reality of the narrative in institution domains. Likewise we have a cultural hangover in the Bitcoin community of financial system style plausibly deniable corruption.
The next wave is geopolitical. Mining and stacking competition between great powers. Low trust international trade in a multipolar order. Remittances. Capital flight. Circular economies escaping extraction and debasement under a new cybernetic population control-based monetary regime (MMT, UBI, stablecoins, DigitalID) that is replacing the petrodollar.
This drawdown and the great burning of paper Bitcoin and clearing of leverage that we are seeing is very healthy. Internally, we are also purging some of the capture and corruption that came with Bitcoin's adolescent financial system phase. This is what the Knots/Core conflict is about in a deeper level.
The good news is that it failed. Bitcoin was not assimilated. Capture has failed and is clearing out. We are consolidating in a very deep sense and setting the table for a much more important phase of adoption and much more real and meaningful monetary technology use cases.
The correlated good news is that the institutional phase fading means we can stop sucking up to banks, regulators and politicians. We'll be going over their heads now.