I personally assign a very low probability less than 1% that humans create AGI in our lifetime.
But a 100% probability that humans will pretend as if they have created AGI in order to further their ...
Asked Grok:
What probability would you predict that humans create AGI in the next 20 years?
Summary:
Optimistic case (20-30%): If breakthroughs in unsupervised learning, brain-inspired AI, or a paradigm shift (e.g., a "Newton moment" in cognitive science) occur soon, AGI could hit by 2045. Current investment—billions from xAI, Google, and others—supports this.
Pessimistic case (5-10%): If we overestimate narrow AI’s trajectory or hit walls (e.g., data limits, energy costs, ethical roadblocks), it could take far longer.
Middle ground (~15-25%): Balancing progress with hurdles, this feels reasonable. We’re at 2025; 20 years gives time for 2-3 major research cycles, assuming steady funding and no global disruptions.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/hdepDYKyyMmOOhKwkbAxtPLFw
What probability would you predict that humans create AGI in the next 20 years?
Summary:
Optimistic case (20-30%): If breakthroughs in unsupervised learning, brain-inspired AI, or a paradigm shift (e.g., a "Newton moment" in cognitive science) occur soon, AGI could hit by 2045. Current investment—billions from xAI, Google, and others—supports this.
Pessimistic case (5-10%): If we overestimate narrow AI’s trajectory or hit walls (e.g., data limits, energy costs, ethical roadblocks), it could take far longer.
Middle ground (~15-25%): Balancing progress with hurdles, this feels reasonable. We’re at 2025; 20 years gives time for 2-3 major research cycles, assuming steady funding and no global disruptions.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/hdepDYKyyMmOOhKwkbAxtPLFw
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