I subscribe to the Simon Dixon view that the “OG IPO” was a manufactured narrative that offered cover to the technocrats selling a bunch of bitcoin for political favors and a bigger seat at the global power table. “They” suppressed the price this cycle so that retail would stay out and give the banks a chance to play the new game on their terms.

Over 20M bitcoin have been issued…we spent a year hovering at 100k. I expect the return of scarcity economics once the banks have been cleared to fully participate in bitcoin and retail realizes this thing isn’t going to go to zero.

It might be an S curve and we’re in the middle of the bend flat before the exponential run. I agree with you that the NGU narrative has been hurt…but that’s directed at retail. Hashrate is still very high and institutional adoption seems to be rapidly progressing. Unless everyone is lying (which is possible but I would think unlikely) we’ve got to be close to seller fatigue. I mean if you haven’t sold yet, why would you sell? Only 450 bitcoin issued per day…everything else is competition for the slack.

But maybe I am wrong.