We've been quiet recently because Mark Goodwin and I have been working to write the most comprehensive investigation into Polymarket's origins and ambitions to date.
We found that Polymarket's "offic...
This is interesting and very well-researched, thanks... Although I guess I'm struggling a bit with what the central "thesis" is. Yes, Coplan appears to have spent the 2010's networking with people like Thiel, Robin Hanson, and a wide variety of others connected to the military industrial complex.... And yes, DARPA was exploring prediction markets in the 2000's, largely inspired by work Hanson had done...
What's the "so what" here? I'm still not seeing anything that strongly contradicts the basic story that Coplan came up with this during COVID lockdown...? The fact that he had been exposed to previous ideas about prediction markets, and previous failed attempts to make them, doesn't contradict the story that he founded Polymarket "from his bathroom."
What's the "so what" here? I'm still not seeing anything that strongly contradicts the basic story that Coplan came up with this during COVID lockdown...? The fact that he had been exposed to previous ideas about prediction markets, and previous failed attempts to make them, doesn't contradict the story that he founded Polymarket "from his bathroom."