The Hormuz crisis is not an oil spike. It's a structural repricing.
Asian LNG up 97% in one week. European gas up 61%. Asian refineries have already cut 6 million barrels per day. The IEA now expects global oil demand to contract for the first time since the pandemic.
Chevron's CEO said it plainly: "We will start to see physical shortages." June and July are the critical months. He put $82 as the floor for Brent and when asked about the ceiling said "how high is high."
The central bank response makes it worse. The ECB wants to hike on June 11. The BOJ is locked in for a hike to 1% on June 16. Two of the three largest central banks are tightening into an oil shock while the Fed sits frozen. Rising energy prices plus tighter money plus weakening growth. Textbook stagflation.
For bitcoin: higher real rates and delayed cuts create short-term pain. But supply-driven inflation combined with a growth scare is exactly the environment that makes the case for scarce, non-sovereign money. The pain tends to come before the thesis gets proven right.
Asian LNG up 97% in one week. European gas up 61%. Asian refineries have already cut 6 million barrels per day. The IEA now expects global oil demand to contract for the first time since the pandemic.
Chevron's CEO said it plainly: "We will start to see physical shortages." June and July are the critical months. He put $82 as the floor for Brent and when asked about the ceiling said "how high is high."
The central bank response makes it worse. The ECB wants to hike on June 11. The BOJ is locked in for a hike to 1% on June 16. Two of the three largest central banks are tightening into an oil shock while the Fed sits frozen. Rising energy prices plus tighter money plus weakening growth. Textbook stagflation.
For bitcoin: higher real rates and delayed cuts create short-term pain. But supply-driven inflation combined with a growth scare is exactly the environment that makes the case for scarce, non-sovereign money. The pain tends to come before the thesis gets proven right.
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