Cool write up! Now do BIP 148 and what does the math tell you there? ~500 nodes? That thing has no chance.
Well. SegWit was a change the economy wanted and miners were sitting on. 17 months of foot-dragging, signaling stuck around 30%. So users drew a line: BIP-148, flag day Aug 1 2017, our nodes orphan any block that doesn't signal. The threat had teeth because the people refusing the blocks were the ones miners needed to sell coins to. Then April 2017 Maxwell drops the covert ASICBoost reveal: SegWit happens to break a hidden efficiency hack some miners were quietly using. Overnight the holdout stops looking principled and starts looking self-interested. Pile that on the UASF pressure and the blockade cracks. BIP-91 gave miners a face-saving 80% off-ramp, and SegWit activated Aug 24 with no split.
bip110 inverts every input. nobody's economy is demanding it. miners don't want it because it cuts their fees. 0.3% signaling against a bar they lowered to 55%. no exchange orphaning anything, no BIP-91 coming because nobody with hashpower wants the destination. same ritual, none of the leverage.
bip110 inverts every input. nobody's economy is demanding it. miners don't want it because it cuts their fees. 0.3% signaling against a bar they lowered to 55%. no exchange orphaning anything, no BIP-91 coming because nobody with hashpower wants the destination. same ritual, none of the leverage.