Damus
Lyn Alden profile picture
Lyn Alden
@LynAlden
Russell Napier is one of my favorite macro analysts that I've learned a lot from over the years. Had the chance to meet him at a dinner the other day and discuss macro with him.

Him and I often have similar macro views and a focus on the topic of fiscal dominance and the financial repression that follows. But an area of historic difference is that he has viewed Bitcoin as unlikely to win. He has viewed it as something that governments will ultimately not allow to function once the gloves come off and financial repression gets real from the major powers.

So I discussed that with him, since while I acknowledge that threat as being real, I think Bitcoin is a solid foundation to push back with. But in addition, I also highlighted Nostr, and decentralized comms and social media in general.

Back in the 1930s-1940s when the US banned gold ownership and implemented yield curve control (hard core financial repression), information moved slowly. A lot of information was one-directional. It was hard for people to coordinate with each other at large scales.

But social media changes the game entirely. People can meme about it in real time. Government and central bank social media accounts can get ratio'd. Maybe one day they'll try to put a stop to that on centralized social media platforms, but that's why the decentralized protocols are so important. The tools are simply much better today, making that type of smooth and coordinated financial repression harder to do since all of their reasons can be dissected and dunked on in real time.
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Isaac Delahaye · 16w
Does he still have the same view on BTC now? 🤔
Laan Tungir · 16w
I guess I would ask him to list historical examples of technological innovation that governments have managed to suppress for long periods of time.
Diego Valley · 16w
Is this the same dinner as Pomp and Visser? Blink twice if that’s correct 😆
Ken Eash · 16w
And this is why they want online ID verification.
Tjefferson · 16w
Great response and analysis. I concur.
Paul · 16w
Maybe one day? Lol ₿itcoin evens the collectivist vs. individualist playing field by providing the individual the “full stack” of what we need for a functional global civilization; projecting real power for protecting property (money) rights, unsuspendable constitition, and the freedom to tran...
Mr Liberty · 16w
Yes and no. You could say the same about government control. Years ago you could imagine that with social media, governments would have a difficult time trying to control people, because they could organize protests in social media, and have freedom of information. But as you can see, even with so...
Keysa - Simplest Bitcoin Edu · 16w
Well put. It’s a crucial distinction between the past and the present that so many (myself included lol) are still wrapping our heads around. There is a book ‘The Future is Faster Than You Think’ which helped me realize the radicalness of the shifts we face, most esp when the different tech to...
aidan · 16w
What precisely is it about improved coordination that negates the financial repression tools which Napier claims will destroy Bitcoin? I believe we need to make it sufficiently difficult for the government to control large swathes of the UTXO set to avoid what happened to gold, but I don’t quite ...
BDC · 16w
Now we just need decentralized real time kinetic resistance that won’t amplify in response Cause the gestapo is using force out there
Buckleys · 16w
What was his response to your hypothesis?
johnny · 16w
This type of analysis closer to reality and further away from sectarian fantasies is what societies need to make their decisions transparent and not get carried away by FOMO ₿ 𓅦
The_Crin · 16w
in addition to the financial repression that they can do at any time, it is also necessary to be prepared for attacks from large companies, because surely they will try to do something to spoil the development of more decentralized social networks, because if they think about it, 'nostr' goes agains...
Alvaro · 16w
Out of curiosity, how will that threat (i.e. “governments not allowing it to function”) look like from your perspective? Maybe I’m missing something but I think most they can do is tax the hell out of people who hold it in self custody and report it (capital gains, both realized and even unr...
Peace K 🪙 · 16w
Technology can make moving thrle overtone window harder, but can't stop it. If the people won't rise up against the banning of Bitcoin, government will be able to ban. Or even easier, choke any glimmer of freedom from it. I fear Bitcoin is a trap for those who value freedom.
gladstein · 16w
Very cool. He will eventually update his views :)
markstephany · 16w
…and worth fighting for and not succumbing to the apathy of “governments won’t allow it,” lest we add ourselves to the shelves of the Library of Mistakes
Theory of Everything · 16w
Watching the stable coin integration coming, Allowing stablecoins to circumvent traditional banks really leads me to believe otherwise. The stablecoin will be the layer of insulation between bitcoin, And CBDC’s. The Fed will bail out its top winners, And absolve predatory tokens as it seems fit, ...
𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐫 · 16w
we have to watch out for communities fracturing and getting smaller and smaller with less crossover that plays into their hands divide and conquer
TheBitSmith · 16w
Lyn, I would love to have been a fly on the wall observing that chat. I’m a big fan it Russel Napier and the Library of Mistakes. Hopefully Russell invites you on to discuss broken money one day and debate some of these threat vectors in detail. I would love for Russell to speak on a few bitcoin p...
u32Luke · 16w
I really appreciate his work, he's an excellent teacher
Force2B · 16w
Agree Russel Napier is easily top 5 people on the planet to listen to (for me). Here is my top 10: 1. Grant Williams 2. Robert Friedland 3. Luke Gromen 4. Lyn Alden 5. Russel Napier 6. Preston Pysh 7. Pippa Malmgren 8. Adam Rozencwajg 9. Josh Crumb 10. Jeff Booth
Force2B · 16w
Very interesting topic, would love you to dive deeper in your next premium report. Go in depth into Russell’s views on Bitcoin and how you counter (or agree) with each.
The Conscious Contrarian · 16w
It would be great to have Russel at a Bitcoin conference