TL;DR
A futures market forces fork supporters to risk their BTC instead of attacking Bitcoin for free. If they won’t bet, their conviction is weak and the fork is likely to fail. Skin in the game e...
Except the way to "bet" as stated doesn't work if the UASF succeeds. Because there is no way to guarantee your counterparty can submit both transactions on both chains. The UASF chain relies on miners resolving an OP_IF sighash, which would be disabled by the consensus change. So, no this is a "heads I win, tails you lose" type of bet.
