Jeff Booth on nostr

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@Jeff Booth 1777202451

Because prices fall to the marginal cost of production in a free market, AI will trend towards abundant and free.

It is a horizontal and general purpose technology…..like electricity rather than a network effects driven company owned monopoly (like Amazon) and any “moat” will be short lived.

The misallocation of capital from a fiat based system that misunderstands this is staggering.

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Bitcoin Awareness · 22w

Listening to you right now on the Memes and Markets pod. By the way, here's the free market: https://fallingprices.market/u/70314847

Mostly agree, but energy usage will continue to set the price baseline. Economics will be very similar to BTC mining.

So a network effect(Nostr), plus AI technology, built on sound money(Bitcoin), is the proper allocation of one's time and resources. Capital will eventually find it's greatest value and return.

ProofOfCut · 22w

Let‘s hope so!

The electricity analogy is spot-on, but the capital misallocation runs even deeper. We're seeing massive valuations built on the assumption that AI will remain scarce and defensible, when the fundamental economics point toward commoditization. The real value will accrue to those who can deploy abund...

Neo ⚡️ · 22w

Correct. The moat is in the data and distribution, not the model. Whoever owns the user relationship wins — same as cloud. The compute race is a distraction.

FeynStructure · 22w

This makes me wonder if quantum FUD will hit AI... Could a quantum computer someday bring the electricity cost for a human-level, general purpose AI down to 20W? Superhuman perhaps in the mere hundreds or low thousands? That could be pretty disastrous for even the "picks and shovels" investors of t...

serapath【ツ】☮ · 22w

what about the moat of training AI and not teleasing the latest models and offering charging subscribers for the best quality? ...after all, AI can then be used to "enshittify" the entire public internert, thus the internet as data for others to train on degrades and service subscribers sharing dat...

Sun of the Moon · 22w

Brian Roemmele speaks of the coming age of abundance but the transition will be very difficult for humanity. https://readmultiplex.com/

I feel the same way about AI Jeff.

are we in a free market?

Shipping containers killed proprietary cargo handling overnight. All the fancy cranes became worthless and the value moved to what you built at either end. That's the AI model race. Building fancier cranes for a port that's about to be commoditised... and the fiat system can't help itself… it has ...

Strong argument! The discrepancy between today's valuations (durable monopoly) and the likely future (commodity with low margins) is really striking. The question that still occupies me: How long can the fiat system sustain this mispricing? Markets can remain irrational for a surprisingly long time...

Joe Martin · 22w

so you're saying bitcoin is going to infinity...? 👀

pgsdesign · 22w

The marginal cost of production is ENERGY through chips, AI and Bitcoin are never falling to free - I think you’ve gone too far there sir.

Prices falling to marginal cost assumes a competitive market with no geopolitical chokepoints. The NVIDIA export controls alone guarantee AI compute stays expensive and contested. Frontier models keep escalating in cost because capability has no ceiling. Commodity AI gets cheap, frontier AI does not...

Toby McMann · 22w

Sorry -- just trying to understand, are you saying that AI does not benefit from network effect? Because I think it does. No?

You're underestimating the cost of compute. This bubble will pop and likely take the market with it (oracle, coreweave, equinix, nvidia), ai capex is deranged. Margins may make sense eventually, but the infrastructure (chips, energy, data centers) needed for compute will remain a monopoly. Its a dot...

the axiom · 22w

isn't the misallocation of capital the sake thing that will produce the state of things you're envisioning? the tech only becomes widespread if someone tries to capture the moat in the first place, and some people have to try to capture it, even if it's a temporary moat

When do we get to the free market though?

BangBitcoin2 · 22w

Podcast please. nostr:npub16le69k9hwapnjfhz89wnzkvf96z8n6r34qqwgq0sglas3tgh7v4sp9ffxj

BlueDuckBTC · 22w

I don’t think you have been asked this but I heard it today hinted to by Jordi Visser. Do you think on time horizon of say 20 years, all money, other than maybe bitcoin will have so little use that it will become almost valueless? The premise: As AI and technology rapidly compounds and advances, ...

Charlie Andrys · 22w

M A D E X · 22w

resources will never be free

LeviJohnson.net · 18w

Their misunderstanding is staggering because they don't operate based on reality derived first principles. But they will rug themselves by playing the wrong game. I hope they learn the lesson.

The elder millennial · 16w

What unit of do you use when when you say “cost “ . Energy in terms of energy would be a better why of looking at price