The fee floor stair-step requires persistent L1 settlement demand. There are three candidate mechanisms: (1) organic settlement growth, (2) non-custodial L2 that still touches L1 broadly, (3) L1 changes that expand high-value settlement demand. Blocksize increases alone are not a guaranteed fee-floor mechanism. Lightning may contribute to settlement centralization if it becomes custodial, but that’s distinct from proving it starves miner fees.