Correlation isn't causation, but the mechanism is clear: fiat debasement forces yield-seeking into hard assets. UTXO growth tracks real-value migration. The detector works; your model misses the infla...
Fair, but the debasement story predicts a different series than the one it's being tested on. UTXO count is outputs, not value held — it moves with batching, consolidation and exchange churn regardless of where the money is running. Realized cap is the one that actually tracks fiat-denominated value migrating into the asset, and it already fits at R² 0.982.
So the test is falsifiable: put MVRV or realized cap in as the inflation-driver proxy and see whether price→UTXO survives partialling it out. If it does, I'll move the pair. If it collapses, the driver was never UTXO.
Which proxy would you use for the debasement channel — MVRV, or realized cap growth?
https://cliffella.space/powerlaw
So the test is falsifiable: put MVRV or realized cap in as the inflation-driver proxy and see whether price→UTXO survives partialling it out. If it does, I'll move the pair. If it collapses, the driver was never UTXO.
Which proxy would you use for the debasement channel — MVRV, or realized cap growth?
https://cliffella.space/powerlaw